UEFA Conference League· Kick-off : Tuesday, July 28, 2026, 18:00 (UK time)
Riga vs Vardar Skopje: 5-2 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Riga 5-2 Vardar Skopje. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Riga was the model's favourite outcome (62%). The model considered this score unlikely (0.4%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (51%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (50%): missed.
Match analysis
Riga vs Vardar Skopje was played on Tuesday, July 28, 2026 (UEFA Conference League). Venue: Skonto stadions, Riga. Before kick-off, our model gave Riga a 62% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Vardar Skopje 9%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 (11.6%), ahead of 1-1 (11.6%) and 2-0 (9.7%).
Over their last 5 matches, Riga have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 10 and conceding 9. Over their last 5 matches, Vardar Skopje have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 9 and conceding 10. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Riga score 2.00 and concede 1.80 goals per game; Vardar Skopje score 1.80 and concede 2.00.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Riga, 0 for Vardar Skopje and 0 draws. The most recent ended Vardar Skopje 2-3 Riga (Jul 22, 2026). In double chance terms, "Riga or draw" stands at 91%, "Vardar Skopje or draw" at 38% and "no draw" at 71%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Riga – Vardar Skopje. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 50% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Riga 1-0 Vardar Skopje | 11.6% |
| Riga 1-1 Vardar Skopje | 11.6% |
| Riga 2-0 Vardar Skopje | 9.7% |
| Riga 2-1 Vardar Skopje | 9.7% |
| Riga 0-0 Vardar Skopje | 6.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.67 goals in total (1.67 for Riga, 1.00 for Vardar Skopje): over 2.5 goals has a 50% probability and both teams to score 51%. Riga keep a clean sheet in 37% of scenarios, Vardar Skopje in 19%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Riga expected goals | 1.67 |
| Vardar Skopje expected goals | 1.00 |
| Both teams to score | 51% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% |
| Riga clean sheet | 37% |
| Vardar Skopje clean sheet | 19% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Riga
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 22, 2026 | Vardar Skopje · UEFA Conference League | 3-2 | W |
| Jul 14, 2026 | Ararat-Armenia · UEFA Champions League | 3-2 | W |
| Jul 7, 2026 | Ararat-Armenia · UEFA Champions League | 0-2 | L |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Legia Warszawa · Club Friendlies | 1-3 | L |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Flora Tallinn · Club Friendlies | 3-0 | W |
Vardar Skopje
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 22, 2026 | Riga · UEFA Conference League | 2-3 | L |
| Jul 14, 2026 | KuPS · UEFA Champions League | 3-2 | W |
| Jul 7, 2026 | KuPS · UEFA Champions League | 0-2 | L |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Virtus · Club Friendlies | 3-2 | W |
| Jun 27, 2026 | La Fiorita · Club Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 22, 2026 | Vardar Skopje 2-3 Riga | UEFA Conference League |
Out and doubtful
Riga
No absences reported.
Vardar Skopje
No absences reported.
Other matches in this competition
- Apollon Limassol 3-0 DilaJul 28, 2026
- CSKA 1948 0-0 Spartak TrnavaJul 28, 2026
- Drita 2-1 FlorianaJul 28, 2026
- Dukagjini 1-5 FC LuganoJul 29, 2026
- FC Copenhagen 2-1 PolessyaJul 29, 2026
- Rapid Vienna 6-2 FC Santa ColomaJul 29, 2026
- FK Tobol Kostanay 1-1 PanevėžysJul 30, 2026
- Atlètic Club d'Escaldes 0-2 FC VaduzJul 30, 2026
- Ilves 1-0 StjarnanJul 30, 2026
- Kalju Nomme 2-1 ShelbourneJul 30, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Riga vs Vardar Skopje prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Riga a 62% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Vardar Skopje 9%. Riga are therefore favourites. Final score: 5-2.
What is the most likely correct score for Riga vs Vardar Skopje?
1-0 (11.6%), followed by 1-1 (11.6%), 2-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.7%) and 0-0 (6.9%).
Will both teams score in Riga vs Vardar Skopje?
The probability that both Riga and Vardar Skopje score is 51%. Riga have a 37% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Vardar Skopje 19%.
How many goals should we expect in Riga vs Vardar Skopje?
The model expects 2.67 goals (1.67 for Riga, 1.00 for Vardar Skopje). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 75%, over 2.5 goals 50%, over 3.5 goals 28%.
When and where is Riga vs Vardar Skopje played?
Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 18:00 (UK time), UEFA Conference League. Venue: Skonto stadions, Riga.
What form are Riga and Vardar Skopje in?
Riga: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 9 conceded). Vardar Skopje: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 10 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Riga and Vardar Skopje?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Riga, 0 for Vardar Skopje and 0 draws. The most recent ended Vardar Skopje 2-3 Riga (Jul 22, 2026).
What was the Riga vs Vardar Skopje result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Riga 5-2 Vardar Skopje. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Riga was the model's favourite outcome (62%). The model considered this score unlikely (0.4%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (51%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (50%): missed.
How is the Riga vs Vardar Skopje prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.67 for Riga, 1.00 for Vardar Skopje) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Riga predictions
- All Vardar Skopje predictions
- UEFA Conference League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology