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UEFA Conference LeagueUEFA Conference League· Kick-off : Thursday, July 30, 2026, 15:00 (UK time)

FK Tobol Kostanay vs Panevėžys: 1-1 result and AI prediction review

FK Tobol KostanayFK Tobol Kostanay1 – 1PanevėžysPanevėžys

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-0

Final score: FK Tobol Kostanay 1-1 Panevėžys (3-2 on penalties). The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for FK Tobol Kostanay (55%), while a draw was rated at only 24%. The final score ranked 2nd among the most likely scorelines (11.3%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (51%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (50%): missed.

Match analysis

FK Tobol Kostanay and Panevėžys met on Thursday, July 30, 2026, a UEFA Conference League fixture. Venue: Centralnyj Stadion, Kostanay. Before kick-off, our model gave FK Tobol Kostanay a 55% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Panevėžys 21%. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (11.7%), followed by 1-1 (11.3%) and 2-0 (10.2%).

FK Tobol Kostanay have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 3 and conceding 6. Panevėžys are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw), scoring 11 and conceding 4. Panevėžys therefore arrive in far better shape than FK Tobol Kostanay. On average FK Tobol Kostanay score 0.60 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Panevėžys score 2.20 and concede 0.80.

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for FK Tobol Kostanay, 0 for Panevėžys and 1 draw. The most recent ended Panevėžys 1-1 FK Tobol Kostanay (Jul 23, 2026). In double chance terms, "FK Tobol Kostanay or draw" stands at 79%, "Panevėžys or draw" at 45% and "no draw" at 76%.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

55%
FK Tobol Kostanay (Win)
24%
Draw
21%
Panevėžys (Win)

Double chance

79%
FK Tobol Kostanay or draw
45%
Panevėžys or draw
76%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as FK Tobol Kostanay – Panevėžys. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 50% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
FK Tobol Kostanay 1-0 Panevėžys11.7%
FK Tobol Kostanay 1-1 Panevėžys11.3%
FK Tobol Kostanay 2-0 Panevėžys10.2%
FK Tobol Kostanay 2-1 Panevėžys9.8%
FK Tobol Kostanay 0-0 Panevėžys6.8%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 1.73 expected goals for FK Tobol Kostanay and 0.96 for Panevėžys, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 50% and "both teams to score" at 51%. FK Tobol Kostanay keep a clean sheet in 38% of scenarios, Panevėžys in 18%.

Probability
FK Tobol Kostanay expected goals1.73
Panevėžys expected goals0.96
Both teams to score51%
Over 1.5 goals75%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Over 3.5 goals28%
FK Tobol Kostanay clean sheet38%
Panevėžys clean sheet18%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

FK Tobol Kostanay

DateOpponentScore
Jul 23, 2026Panevėžys · UEFA Conference League1-1D
Feb 13, 2026Nizhny Novgorod · Club Friendlies1-2L
Feb 8, 2026Epitsentr Dunayivtsi · Club Friendlies0-3L
Jan 25, 2026Slavia Sofia · Club Friendlies1-0W
Jan 15, 2026Napredak · Club Friendlies0-0D

Panevėžys

DateOpponentScore
Jul 23, 2026FK Tobol Kostanay · UEFA Conference League1-1D
Feb 11, 2026TransINVEST Vilnius · Club Friendlies4-1W
Feb 7, 2026Metta / LU · Club Friendlies2-1W
Jan 31, 2026Tukums · Club Friendlies2-1W
Jan 24, 2026FS Jelgava · Club Friendlies2-0W

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Jul 23, 2026Panevėžys 1-1 FK Tobol KostanayUEFA Conference League

Out and doubtful

FK Tobol Kostanay

No absences reported.

Panevėžys

No absences reported.

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the FK Tobol Kostanay vs Panevėžys prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave FK Tobol Kostanay a 55% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Panevėžys 21%. FK Tobol Kostanay are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-1.

What is the most likely correct score for FK Tobol Kostanay vs Panevėžys?

1-0 (11.7%), followed by 1-1 (11.3%), 2-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.8%) and 0-0 (6.8%).

Will both teams score in FK Tobol Kostanay vs Panevėžys?

The probability that both FK Tobol Kostanay and Panevėžys score is 51%. FK Tobol Kostanay have a 38% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Panevėžys 18%.

How many goals should we expect in FK Tobol Kostanay vs Panevėžys?

The model expects 2.69 goals (1.73 for FK Tobol Kostanay, 0.96 for Panevėžys). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 75%, over 2.5 goals 50%, over 3.5 goals 28%.

When and where is FK Tobol Kostanay vs Panevėžys played?

Thursday, July 30, 2026 at 15:00 (UK time), UEFA Conference League. Venue: Centralnyj Stadion, Kostanay.

What form are FK Tobol Kostanay and Panevėžys in?

FK Tobol Kostanay: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 6 conceded). Panevėžys: 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (11 scored, 4 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between FK Tobol Kostanay and Panevėžys?

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for FK Tobol Kostanay, 0 for Panevėžys and 1 draw. The most recent ended Panevėžys 1-1 FK Tobol Kostanay (Jul 23, 2026).

What was the FK Tobol Kostanay vs Panevėžys result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: FK Tobol Kostanay 1-1 Panevėžys (3-2 on penalties). The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for FK Tobol Kostanay (55%), while a draw was rated at only 24%. The final score ranked 2nd among the most likely scorelines (11.3%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (51%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (50%): missed.

How is the FK Tobol Kostanay vs Panevėžys prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.73 for FK Tobol Kostanay, 0.96 for Panevėžys) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained