UEFA Conference League· Kick-off : Thursday, July 30, 2026, 17:00 (UK time)
Zira vs Paide: 1-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Zira 1-1 Paide. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Zira (51%), while a draw was rated at only 25%. The exact score 1-1 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (11.8%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (49%): correct.
Match analysis
Zira vs Paide was played on Thursday, July 30, 2026 (UEFA Conference League). Venue: Kapital Bank Arena, Sumgayit. Before kick-off, our model gave Zira a 51% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Paide 24%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (11.8%), ahead of 1-0 (11.4%) and 2-1 (9.5%).
Over their last 5 matches, Zira have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 9 and conceding 7. Over their last 5 matches, Paide have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 7 and conceding 4. Recent momentum is clearly with Paide. On average Zira score 1.80 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Paide score 1.40 and concede 0.80.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Zira, 1 for Paide and 0 draws. The most recent ended Paide 1-0 Zira (Jul 23, 2026). In double chance terms, "Zira or draw" stands at 76%, "Paide or draw" at 49% and "no draw" at 75%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Zira – Paide. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (11.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Zira 1-1 Paide | 11.8% |
| Zira 1-0 Paide | 11.4% |
| Zira 2-1 Paide | 9.5% |
| Zira 2-0 Paide | 9.2% |
| Zira 0-1 Paide | 7.3% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.65 goals in total (1.61 for Zira, 1.04 for Paide): over 2.5 goals has a 49% probability and both teams to score 52%. Zira keep a clean sheet in 35% of scenarios, Paide in 20%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Zira expected goals | 1.61 |
| Paide expected goals | 1.04 |
| Both teams to score | 52% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% |
| Zira clean sheet | 35% |
| Paide clean sheet | 20% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Zira
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 23, 2026 | Paide · UEFA Conference League | 0-1 | L |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Torpedo Kutaisi · UEFA Conference League | 3-0 | W |
| Jul 8, 2026 | Torpedo Kutaisi · UEFA Conference League | 3-0 | W |
| Jan 16, 2026 | Bohemians 1905 · Club Friendlies | 1-3 | L |
| Jan 16, 2026 | Oleksandria · Club Friendlies | 2-3 | L |
Paide
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 23, 2026 | Zira · UEFA Conference League | 1-0 | W |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Hegelmann Litauen · UEFA Conference League | 3-0 | W |
| Jul 9, 2026 | Hegelmann Litauen · UEFA Conference League | 1-1 | D |
| Feb 28, 2026 | Super Nova · Club Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Feb 20, 2026 | Flora Tallinn · Club Friendlies | 1-3 | L |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 23, 2026 | Paide 1-0 Zira | UEFA Conference League |
Out and doubtful
Zira
No absences reported.
Paide
No absences reported.
Other matches in this competition
- Ilves 1-0 StjarnanJul 30, 2026
- Kalju Nomme 2-1 ShelbourneJul 30, 2026
- FC Noah 2-1 ZimbruJul 30, 2026
- Inter Turku 2-0 BaşakşehirJul 30, 2026
- Auda 4-1 FCSBJul 30, 2026
- Pyunik Yerevan 0-0 Debreceni VSCJul 30, 2026
- FK Jablonec 2-0 NK VarazdinJul 30, 2026
- FC Levadia Tallinn 1-3 IFK GoteborgJul 30, 2026
- Petrocub 3-3 Borac Banja LukaJul 30, 2026
- FK Zalgiris Vilnius 7-2 Dinamo TbilisiJul 30, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Zira vs Paide prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Zira a 51% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Paide 24%. Zira are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Zira vs Paide?
1-1 (11.8%), followed by 1-0 (11.4%), 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (9.2%) and 0-1 (7.3%).
Will both teams score in Zira vs Paide?
The probability that both Zira and Paide score is 52%. Zira have a 35% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Paide 20%.
How many goals should we expect in Zira vs Paide?
The model expects 2.65 goals (1.61 for Zira, 1.04 for Paide). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 49%, over 3.5 goals 28%.
When and where is Zira vs Paide played?
Thursday, July 30, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), UEFA Conference League. Venue: Kapital Bank Arena, Sumgayit.
What form are Zira and Paide in?
Zira: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 7 conceded). Paide: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 4 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Zira and Paide?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Zira, 1 for Paide and 0 draws. The most recent ended Paide 1-0 Zira (Jul 23, 2026).
What was the Zira vs Paide result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Zira 1-1 Paide. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Zira (51%), while a draw was rated at only 25%. The exact score 1-1 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (11.8%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (49%): correct.
How is the Zira vs Paide prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.61 for Zira, 1.04 for Paide) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Zira predictions
- All Paide predictions
- UEFA Conference League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology