UEFA Conference League· Kick-off : Thursday, July 30, 2026, 17:00 (UK time)
Ilves vs Stjarnan: 1-0 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Ilves 1-0 Stjarnan (5-4 on penalties). The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Ilves at 57%. The exact score 1-0 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (11.6%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (51%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (50%): correct.
Match analysis
Ilves and Stjarnan met on Thursday, July 30, 2026, a UEFA Conference League fixture. Venue: Tammelan Stadion, Tampere. Before kick-off, our model gave Ilves a 57% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Stjarnan 20%. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (11.6%), followed by 1-1 (11.6%) and 2-0 (9.7%).
Over their last 5 matches, Ilves have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 5 and conceding 3. Stjarnan are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw), scoring 11 and conceding 6. Stjarnan therefore arrive in far better shape than Ilves. On average Ilves score 1.00 and concede 0.60 goals per game; Stjarnan score 2.20 and concede 1.20.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Ilves, 1 for Stjarnan and 0 draws. The most recent ended Stjarnan 1-0 Ilves (Jul 23, 2026). In double chance terms, "Ilves or draw" stands at 80%, "Stjarnan or draw" at 43% and "no draw" at 77%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Ilves – Stjarnan. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 50% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Ilves 1-0 Stjarnan | 11.6% |
| Ilves 1-1 Stjarnan | 11.6% |
| Ilves 2-0 Stjarnan | 9.7% |
| Ilves 2-1 Stjarnan | 9.7% |
| Ilves 0-0 Stjarnan | 6.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.67 expected goals for Ilves and 1.00 for Stjarnan, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 50% and "both teams to score" at 51%. Ilves keep a clean sheet in 37% of scenarios, Stjarnan in 19%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Ilves expected goals | 1.67 |
| Stjarnan expected goals | 1.00 |
| Both teams to score | 51% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% |
| Ilves clean sheet | 37% |
| Stjarnan clean sheet | 19% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Ilves
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 23, 2026 | Stjarnan · UEFA Conference League | 0-1 | L |
| Jul 16, 2026 | FC Differdange 03 · UEFA Conference League | 3-1 | W |
| Jul 8, 2026 | FC Differdange 03 · UEFA Conference League | 0-0 | D |
| Mar 27, 2026 | MP · Club Friendlies | 2-0 | W |
| Mar 7, 2026 | Haka · Club Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
Stjarnan
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 23, 2026 | Ilves · UEFA Conference League | 1-0 | W |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Vikingur Gota · UEFA Conference League | 2-2 | D |
| Jul 9, 2026 | Vikingur Gota · UEFA Conference League | 3-1 | W |
| Feb 12, 2026 | B 93 · Club Friendlies | 3-2 | W |
| Feb 8, 2026 | Karpaty · Club Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 23, 2026 | Stjarnan 1-0 Ilves | UEFA Conference League |
Out and doubtful
Ilves
No absences reported.
Stjarnan
No absences reported.
Other matches in this competition
- Kalju Nomme 2-1 ShelbourneJul 30, 2026
- FC Noah 2-1 ZimbruJul 30, 2026
- Inter Turku 2-0 BaşakşehirJul 30, 2026
- Auda 4-1 FCSBJul 30, 2026
- Zira 1-1 PaideJul 30, 2026
- Pyunik Yerevan 0-0 Debreceni VSCJul 30, 2026
- FK Jablonec 2-0 NK VarazdinJul 30, 2026
- FC Levadia Tallinn 1-3 IFK GoteborgJul 30, 2026
- Petrocub 3-3 Borac Banja LukaJul 30, 2026
- FK Zalgiris Vilnius 7-2 Dinamo TbilisiJul 30, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Ilves vs Stjarnan prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Ilves a 57% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Stjarnan 20%. Ilves are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-0.
What is the most likely correct score for Ilves vs Stjarnan?
1-0 (11.6%), followed by 1-1 (11.6%), 2-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.7%) and 0-0 (6.9%).
Will both teams score in Ilves vs Stjarnan?
The probability that both Ilves and Stjarnan score is 51%. Ilves have a 37% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Stjarnan 19%.
How many goals should we expect in Ilves vs Stjarnan?
The model expects 2.67 goals (1.67 for Ilves, 1.00 for Stjarnan). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 75%, over 2.5 goals 50%, over 3.5 goals 28%.
When and where is Ilves vs Stjarnan played?
Thursday, July 30, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), UEFA Conference League. Venue: Tammelan Stadion, Tampere.
What form are Ilves and Stjarnan in?
Ilves: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 3 conceded). Stjarnan: 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (11 scored, 6 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and Stjarnan?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Ilves, 1 for Stjarnan and 0 draws. The most recent ended Stjarnan 1-0 Ilves (Jul 23, 2026).
What was the Ilves vs Stjarnan result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Ilves 1-0 Stjarnan (5-4 on penalties). The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Ilves at 57%. The exact score 1-0 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (11.6%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (51%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (50%): correct.
How is the Ilves vs Stjarnan prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.67 for Ilves, 1.00 for Stjarnan) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Ilves predictions
- All Stjarnan predictions
- UEFA Conference League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology