UEFA Europa League· Kick-off : Thursday, August 27, 2026, 19:00 (UK time)
Aarhus vs Benfica: 1-3 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Aarhus 1-3 Benfica. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Benfica was the model's favourite outcome (83%). The exact score 1-3 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (7.5%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (68%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (87%): correct.
Match analysis
Aarhus vs Benfica was played on Thursday, August 27, 2026 (UEFA Europa League). Venue: Cepheus Park Randers, Randers. Before kick-off, our model gave Aarhus a 7% chance of winning, the draw 10% and Benfica 83%. The most likely correct score is 1-3 (7.5%), ahead of 1-4 (7.0%) and 0-3 (6.3%).
Over their last 5 matches, Aarhus have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 7 and conceding 12. Benfica are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 19 and conceding 5. Recent momentum is clearly with Benfica. On average Aarhus score 1.40 and concede 2.40 goals per game; Benfica score 3.80 and concede 1.00.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Aarhus, 1 for Benfica and 0 draws. The most recent ended Benfica 3-1 Aarhus (Aug 20, 2026). Aarhus out or doubtful: R. Gyamfi, N. Poulsen, C. Rosler, C. Storch and F. Tingager. In double chance terms, "Aarhus or draw" stands at 17%, "Benfica or draw" at 93% and "no draw" at 90%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Aarhus – Benfica. 1-3 is the single most likely scoreline (7.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 33% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Aarhus 1-3 Benfica | 7.5% |
| Aarhus 1-4 Benfica | 7.0% |
| Aarhus 0-3 Benfica | 6.3% |
| Aarhus 0-4 Benfica | 6.0% |
| Aarhus 1-2 Benfica | 5.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 4.95 goals in total (1.18 for Aarhus, 3.77 for Benfica): over 2.5 goals has a 87% probability and both teams to score 68%. Everything points to an open game. Aarhus keep a clean sheet in 2% of scenarios, Benfica in 31%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Aarhus expected goals | 1.18 |
| Benfica expected goals | 3.77 |
| Both teams to score | 68% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 96% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 87% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 73% |
| Aarhus clean sheet | 2% |
| Benfica clean sheet | 31% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Aarhus
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Benfica · UEFA Europa League | 1-3 | L |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Sabah FA · UEFA Champions League | 0-4 | L |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Sabah FA · UEFA Champions League | 2-1 | W |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Lech Poznan · UEFA Champions League | 3-0 | W |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Lech Poznan · UEFA Champions League | 1-4 | L |
Benfica
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Aarhus · UEFA Europa League | 3-1 | W |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Casa Pia · Primeira Liga | 7-0 | W |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Heart Of Midlothian · UEFA Europa League | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Academico Viseu · Primeira Liga | 2-2 | D |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Heart Of Midlothian · UEFA Europa League | 6-1 | W |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Benfica 3-1 Aarhus | UEFA Europa League |
Out and doubtful
Aarhus
- R. Gyamfi (out)
- N. Poulsen (out)
- C. Rosler (out)
- C. Storch (out)
- F. Tingager (out)
Benfica
No absences reported.
Other matches in this competition
- Ararat-Armenia 1-0 Universitatea CraiovaAug 27, 2026
- Red Bull Salzburg 3-0 Mjallby AIFAug 27, 2026
- Kauno Žalgiris 1-0 BeşiktaşAug 27, 2026
- Plzen 5-1 FK Crvena ZvezdaAug 27, 2026
- Omonia Nicosia 4-2 St. TruidenAug 27, 2026
- Lillestrom 2-1 Egnatia RrogozhinëAug 27, 2026
- FC Thun 2-2 Lech PoznanAug 27, 2026
- CSKA Sofia 0-2 OFIAug 27, 2026
- Ferencvarosi TC 4-0 TrabzonsporAug 27, 2026
- Anderlecht 3-0 Kairat AlmatyAug 27, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Aarhus vs Benfica prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Aarhus a 7% chance of winning, the draw 10% and Benfica 83%. Benfica are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-3.
What is the most likely correct score for Aarhus vs Benfica?
1-3 (7.5%), followed by 1-4 (7.0%), 0-3 (6.3%), 0-4 (6.0%) and 1-2 (5.9%).
Will both teams score in Aarhus vs Benfica?
The probability that both Aarhus and Benfica score is 68%. Aarhus have a 2% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Benfica 31%.
How many goals should we expect in Aarhus vs Benfica?
The model expects 4.95 goals (1.18 for Aarhus, 3.77 for Benfica). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 96%, over 2.5 goals 87%, over 3.5 goals 73%.
When and where is Aarhus vs Benfica played?
Thursday, August 27, 2026 at 19:00 (UK time), UEFA Europa League. Venue: Cepheus Park Randers, Randers.
What form are Aarhus and Benfica in?
Aarhus: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 12 conceded). Benfica: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (19 scored, 5 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Aarhus and Benfica?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Aarhus, 1 for Benfica and 0 draws. The most recent ended Benfica 3-1 Aarhus (Aug 20, 2026).
What was the Aarhus vs Benfica result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Aarhus 1-3 Benfica. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Benfica was the model's favourite outcome (83%). The exact score 1-3 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (7.5%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (68%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (87%): correct.
How is the Aarhus vs Benfica prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.18 for Aarhus, 3.77 for Benfica) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Aarhus predictions
- All Benfica predictions
- UEFA Europa League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology