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UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League· Kick-off : Thursday, August 27, 2026, 19:00 (UK time)

FC Thun vs Lech Poznan: 2-2 result and AI prediction review

FC ThunFC Thun2 – 2Lech PoznanLech Poznan

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-1

Final score: FC Thun 2-2 Lech Poznan. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for FC Thun (46%), while a draw was rated at only 26%. The final score ranked 8th among the most likely scorelines (5.1%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (48%): missed.

Match analysis

FC Thun vs Lech Poznan was played on Thursday, August 27, 2026 (UEFA Europa League). Venue: Stockhorn Arena, Thun. Before kick-off, our model gave FC Thun a 46% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Lech Poznan 28%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (12.3%), ahead of 1-0 (11.0%) and 2-1 (9.1%).

FC Thun have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 8 and conceding 14. Over their last 5 matches, Lech Poznan have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 17 and conceding 4. Recent momentum is clearly with Lech Poznan. On average FC Thun score 1.60 and concede 2.80 goals per game; Lech Poznan score 3.40 and concede 0.80.

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for FC Thun, 1 for Lech Poznan and 0 draws. The most recent ended Lech Poznan 7-0 FC Thun (Aug 20, 2026). In double chance terms, "FC Thun or draw" stands at 72%, "Lech Poznan or draw" at 54% and "no draw" at 74%.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

46%
FC Thun (Win)
26%
Draw
28%
Lech Poznan (Win)

Double chance

72%
FC Thun or draw
54%
Lech Poznan or draw
74%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as FC Thun – Lech Poznan. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.3%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
FC Thun 1-1 Lech Poznan12.3%
FC Thun 1-0 Lech Poznan11.0%
FC Thun 2-1 Lech Poznan9.1%
FC Thun 0-1 Lech Poznan8.2%
FC Thun 2-0 Lech Poznan8.2%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 2.61 goals in total (1.49 for FC Thun, 1.12 for Lech Poznan): over 2.5 goals has a 48% probability and both teams to score 52%. FC Thun keep a clean sheet in 33% of scenarios, Lech Poznan in 23%.

Probability
FC Thun expected goals1.49
Lech Poznan expected goals1.12
Both teams to score52%
Over 1.5 goals74%
Over 2.5 goals48%
Over 3.5 goals27%
FC Thun clean sheet33%
Lech Poznan clean sheet23%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

FC Thun

DateOpponentScore
Aug 20, 2026Lech Poznan · UEFA Europa League0-7L
Aug 13, 2026Vikingur Reykjavik · UEFA Europa League2-3L
Aug 6, 2026Vikingur Reykjavik · UEFA Europa League3-0W
Jul 28, 2026Dinamo Zagreb · UEFA Champions League2-3L
Jul 21, 2026Dinamo Zagreb · UEFA Champions League1-1D

Lech Poznan

DateOpponentScore
Aug 20, 2026FC Thun · UEFA Europa League7-0W
Aug 14, 2026KI Klaksvik · UEFA Europa League5-0W
Aug 6, 2026KI Klaksvik · UEFA Europa League1-0W
Jul 29, 2026Aarhus · UEFA Champions League0-3L
Jul 21, 2026Aarhus · UEFA Champions League4-1W

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Aug 20, 2026Lech Poznan 7-0 FC ThunUEFA Europa League

Out and doubtful

FC Thun

No absences reported.

Lech Poznan

No absences reported.

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the FC Thun vs Lech Poznan prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave FC Thun a 46% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Lech Poznan 28%. FC Thun are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-2.

What is the most likely correct score for FC Thun vs Lech Poznan?

1-1 (12.3%), followed by 1-0 (11.0%), 2-1 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.2%) and 2-0 (8.2%).

Will both teams score in FC Thun vs Lech Poznan?

The probability that both FC Thun and Lech Poznan score is 52%. FC Thun have a 33% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Lech Poznan 23%.

How many goals should we expect in FC Thun vs Lech Poznan?

The model expects 2.61 goals (1.49 for FC Thun, 1.12 for Lech Poznan). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 48%, over 3.5 goals 27%.

When and where is FC Thun vs Lech Poznan played?

Thursday, August 27, 2026 at 19:00 (UK time), UEFA Europa League. Venue: Stockhorn Arena, Thun.

What form are FC Thun and Lech Poznan in?

FC Thun: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 14 conceded). Lech Poznan: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (17 scored, 4 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between FC Thun and Lech Poznan?

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for FC Thun, 1 for Lech Poznan and 0 draws. The most recent ended Lech Poznan 7-0 FC Thun (Aug 20, 2026).

What was the FC Thun vs Lech Poznan result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: FC Thun 2-2 Lech Poznan. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for FC Thun (46%), while a draw was rated at only 26%. The final score ranked 8th among the most likely scorelines (5.1%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (48%): missed.

How is the FC Thun vs Lech Poznan prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.49 for FC Thun, 1.12 for Lech Poznan) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained