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UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League· Kick-off : Thursday, October 22, 2026, 17:45 (UK time)

Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar prediction: correct score and AI tips

Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia–AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar

Match analysis

UEFA Europa League: the Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar match is scheduled on Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 17:45 (UK time). Venue: Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium, Yerevan. The edge goes to AZ Alkmaar (56%), ahead of the draw (21%) and a Ararat-Armenia win (23%). The most likely correct score is 1-2 (9.7%), ahead of 1-1 (9.2%) and 0-2 (7.7%).

Over their last 5 matches, Ararat-Armenia have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 7 and conceding 6. Over their last 5 matches, AZ Alkmaar have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 10 and conceding 6. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Ararat-Armenia score 1.40 and concede 1.20 goals per game; AZ Alkmaar score 2.00 and concede 1.20. In the table, Ararat-Armenia sit 33rd with 0 points from 1 games, AZ Alkmaar 26th with 0 points from 1. 7 places separate the two sides.

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Ararat-Armenia and AZ Alkmaar: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. AZ Alkmaar: S. Resink. In double chance terms, "Ararat-Armenia or draw" stands at 44%, "AZ Alkmaar or draw" at 77% and "no draw" at 79%.

In short : AZ Alkmaar are tipped by our AI model in this Ararat-Armenia v AZ Alkmaar (56%). On recent form, Ararat-Armenia have 3 wins, 0 draw and 2 losses in 5 while AZ Alkmaar have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

23%
Ararat-Armenia (Win)
21%
Draw
56%
AZ Alkmaar (Win)

Double chance

44%
Ararat-Armenia or draw
77%
AZ Alkmaar or draw
79%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Ararat-Armenia – AZ Alkmaar. 1-2 is the single most likely scoreline (9.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 41% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Ararat-Armenia 1-2 AZ Alkmaar9.7%
Ararat-Armenia 1-1 AZ Alkmaar9.2%
Ararat-Armenia 0-2 AZ Alkmaar7.7%
Ararat-Armenia 0-1 AZ Alkmaar7.3%
Ararat-Armenia 1-3 AZ Alkmaar6.7%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 3.35 goals in total (1.26 for Ararat-Armenia, 2.09 for AZ Alkmaar): over 2.5 goals has a 65% probability and both teams to score 63%. Everything points to an open game. Ararat-Armenia keep a clean sheet in 12% of scenarios, AZ Alkmaar in 28%.

Probability
Ararat-Armenia expected goals1.26
AZ Alkmaar expected goals2.09
Both teams to score63%
Over 1.5 goals85%
Over 2.5 goals65%
Over 3.5 goals43%
Ararat-Armenia clean sheet12%
AZ Alkmaar clean sheet28%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Ararat-Armenia

DateOpponentScore
Sep 16, 2026Sparta Praha · UEFA Europa League1-4L
Sep 11, 2026Syunik · Premier League3-0W
Sep 5, 2026Ararat · Premier League1-0W
Aug 31, 2026Pyunik Yerevan · Premier League1-2L
Aug 27, 2026Universitatea Craiova · UEFA Europa League1-0W

AZ Alkmaar

DateOpponentScore
Sep 20, 2026Telstar · Eredivisie1-0W
Sep 16, 2026Sunderland · UEFA Europa League0-1L
Sep 11, 2026Willem II · Eredivisie1-1D
Sep 6, 2026Heerenveen · Eredivisie3-2W
Aug 29, 2026GO Ahead Eagles · Eredivisie5-2W

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Ararat-Armenia3301
AZ Alkmaar2601

Head-to-head

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Ararat-Armenia and AZ Alkmaar: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.

Out and doubtful

Ararat-Armenia

No absences reported.

AZ Alkmaar

  • S. Resink (out)

Most regular starters

Ararat-Armenia

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • Junior Julio4/5
  • H. Oliveira3/5
  • Joao Bravim3/5
  • Sandro Lima3/5
  • A. Ambartsumyan2/5
  • A. Malis2/5
  • A. Serobyan2/5
  • B. Pereira2/5
  • B. R. Wilson Valdez2/5
  • Benny2/5
  • E. Grigoryan2/5

AZ Alkmaar

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • E. Dijkstra5/5
  • J. De Busser5/5
  • L. Schouten5/5
  • M. Meerdink5/5
  • P. Koopmeiners5/5
  • R. Daal5/5
  • W. Goes5/5
  • D. Kwakman4/5
  • M. Chavez Garcia4/5
  • J. Clasie3/5
  • C. Stengs2/5

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See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar prediction?

Our AI gives Ararat-Armenia a 23% chance of winning, the draw 21% and AZ Alkmaar 56%. AZ Alkmaar are therefore favourites.

What is the most likely correct score for Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar?

1-2 (9.7%), followed by 1-1 (9.2%), 0-2 (7.7%), 0-1 (7.3%) and 1-3 (6.7%).

Will both teams score in Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar?

The probability that both Ararat-Armenia and AZ Alkmaar score is 63%. Ararat-Armenia have a 12% chance of keeping a clean sheet, AZ Alkmaar 28%.

How many goals should we expect in Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar?

The model expects 3.35 goals (1.26 for Ararat-Armenia, 2.09 for AZ Alkmaar). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 85%, over 2.5 goals 65%, over 3.5 goals 43%.

When and where is Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar played?

Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 17:45 (UK time), UEFA Europa League. Venue: Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium, Yerevan.

What form are Ararat-Armenia and AZ Alkmaar in?

Ararat-Armenia: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 6 conceded). AZ Alkmaar: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 6 conceded).

How is the Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.26 for Ararat-Armenia, 2.09 for AZ Alkmaar) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained