UEFA Europa League· Kick-off : Thursday, October 22, 2026, 17:45 (UK time)
Sturm Graz vs Marseille prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
UEFA Europa League: the Sturm Graz vs Marseille match is scheduled on Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 17:45 (UK time). Venue: Merkur-Arena, Graz. Nothing is settled in advance: the AI gives Sturm Graz 40%, Marseille 35% and the draw 25%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (11.7%), ahead of 2-1 (8.7%) and 1-0 (8.6%).
Over their last 5 matches, Sturm Graz have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 7 and conceding 8. Marseille have not won any of their last 5 matches (0 draws, 5 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 12. Recent momentum is clearly with Sturm Graz. On average Sturm Graz score 1.40 and concede 1.60 goals per game; Marseille score 0.80 and concede 2.40. In the table, Sturm Graz sit 17th with 1 points from 1 games, Marseille 32nd with 0 points from 1. 15 places separate the two sides.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Sturm Graz and Marseille: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Sturm Graz or draw" stands at 65%, "Marseille or draw" at 60% and "no draw" at 75%.
In short : Sturm Graz and Marseille meet in a wide-open clash with no clear favourite (draw at 25%). On recent form, Sturm Graz have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5 while Marseille are struggling (5 losses in 5). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Sturm Graz – Marseille. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (11.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 45% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Sturm Graz 1-1 Marseille | 11.7% |
| Sturm Graz 2-1 Marseille | 8.7% |
| Sturm Graz 1-0 Marseille | 8.6% |
| Sturm Graz 1-2 Marseille | 8.0% |
| Sturm Graz 0-1 Marseille | 7.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.85 goals in total (1.48 for Sturm Graz, 1.37 for Marseille): over 2.5 goals has a 54% probability and both teams to score 58%. Sturm Graz keep a clean sheet in 25% of scenarios, Marseille in 23%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Sturm Graz expected goals | 1.48 |
| Marseille expected goals | 1.37 |
| Both teams to score | 58% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% |
| Sturm Graz clean sheet | 25% |
| Marseille clean sheet | 23% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Sturm Graz
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Red Bull Salzburg · Bundesliga | 0-3 | L |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Rennes · UEFA Europa League | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Lask Linz · Bundesliga | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Voitsberg · Cup | 4-1 | W |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Rapid Vienna · Bundesliga | 1-3 | L |
Marseille
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain · Ligue 1 | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Beşiktaş · UEFA Europa League | 1-4 | L |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Rennes · Ligue 1 | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Paris FC · Ligue 1 | 2-3 | L |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Monaco · Ligue 1 | 0-2 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sturm Graz | 17 | 1 | 1 |
| Marseille | 32 | 0 | 1 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Sturm Graz and Marseille: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Sturm Graz
No absences reported.
Marseille
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Sturm Graz
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- J. Heil4/4
- J. Hodl4/4
- A. Vallci3/4
- D. Khudyakov3/4
- J. Gorenc Stankovic3/4
- J. Quarshie3/4
- L. Weinhandl3/4
- P. Koller3/4
- S. Seidl3/4
- V. Matoshi3/4
- A. Malic2/4
Marseille
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Emerson4/5
- Amine Gouiri3/5
- Amine Harit3/5
- Angel Gomes3/5
- Conrad Jaden Egan-Riley3/5
- Himad Abdelli3/5
- Igor Paixão3/5
- Jeffrey De Lange3/5
- Pierre-Emile Højbjerg3/5
- Timothy Weah3/5
- A. Harit2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Sturm Graz vs Marseille prediction?
Our AI gives Sturm Graz a 40% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Marseille 35%. Sturm Graz are therefore slight favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Sturm Graz vs Marseille?
1-1 (11.7%), followed by 2-1 (8.7%), 1-0 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.0%) and 0-1 (7.9%).
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs Marseille?
The probability that both Sturm Graz and Marseille score is 58%. Sturm Graz have a 25% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Marseille 23%.
How many goals should we expect in Sturm Graz vs Marseille?
The model expects 2.85 goals (1.48 for Sturm Graz, 1.37 for Marseille). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 78%, over 2.5 goals 54%, over 3.5 goals 32%.
When and where is Sturm Graz vs Marseille played?
Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 17:45 (UK time), UEFA Europa League. Venue: Merkur-Arena, Graz.
What form are Sturm Graz and Marseille in?
Sturm Graz: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 8 conceded). Marseille: 0 wins, 0 draws and 5 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 12 conceded).
How is the Sturm Graz vs Marseille prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.48 for Sturm Graz, 1.37 for Marseille) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Sturm Graz predictions
- All Marseille predictions
- UEFA Europa League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology