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UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League· Kick-off : Thursday, October 22, 2026, 17:45 (UK time)

Lech Poznan vs Sunderland prediction: correct score and AI tips

Lech PoznanLech Poznan–SunderlandSunderland

Match analysis

Lech Poznan take on Sunderland on Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 17:45 (UK time), a UEFA Europa League fixture. Venue: Stadion Poznan. Our model makes Sunderland clear favourites: a 91% chance of winning, against 6% for the draw and 3% for Lech Poznan. On the correct score, 0-3 comes out on top (9.8%), followed by 0-4 (9.8%) and 0-5 (7.8%).

Over their last 5 matches, Lech Poznan have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 9 and conceding 9. Over their last 5 matches, Sunderland have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 6 and conceding 8. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Lech Poznan score 1.80 and concede 1.80 goals per game; Sunderland score 1.20 and concede 1.60. In the table, Lech Poznan sit 35th with 0 points from 1 games, Sunderland 15th with 3 points from 1. 20 places separate the two sides.

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Lech Poznan and Sunderland: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. Sunderland: H. Diarra, R. Mundle, D. Ballard (doubtful) and B. Brobbey (doubtful). In double chance terms, "Lech Poznan or draw" stands at 9%, "Sunderland or draw" at 97% and "no draw" at 94%.

In short : Sunderland are favourites for this Lech Poznan v Sunderland, with a 91% win probability from our model. In the table, Lech Poznan (35th, 0 pts) host Sunderland (15th, 3 pts). One to watch: Sunderland will be without H. Diarra and R. Mundle.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

3%
Lech Poznan (Win)
6%
Draw
91%
Sunderland (Win)

Double chance

9%
Lech Poznan or draw
97%
Sunderland or draw
94%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Lech Poznan – Sunderland. 0-3 is the single most likely scoreline (9.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 42% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Lech Poznan 0-3 Sunderland9.8%
Lech Poznan 0-4 Sunderland9.8%
Lech Poznan 0-5 Sunderland7.8%
Lech Poznan 0-2 Sunderland7.3%
Lech Poznan 1-3 Sunderland6.8%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 0.69 expected goals for Lech Poznan and 4.00 for Sunderland, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 85% and "both teams to score" at 49%. Goals look likely in this one. Lech Poznan keep a clean sheet in 2% of scenarios, Sunderland in 50%.

Probability
Lech Poznan expected goals0.69
Sunderland expected goals4.00
Both teams to score49%
Over 1.5 goals95%
Over 2.5 goals85%
Over 3.5 goals69%
Lech Poznan clean sheet2%
Sunderland clean sheet50%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Lech Poznan

DateOpponentScore
Oct 3, 2026Energie Cottbus · Club Friendlies2-2D
Sep 20, 2026Radomiak Radom · Ekstraklasa5-1W
Sep 17, 2026Crystal Palace · UEFA Europa League0-4L
Sep 12, 2026Gornik Zabrze · Ekstraklasa1-2L
Sep 6, 2026Raków Częstochowa · Ekstraklasa1-0W

Sunderland

DateOpponentScore
Sep 20, 2026Manchester City · Premier League3-5L
Sep 16, 2026AZ Alkmaar · UEFA Europa League1-0W
Sep 12, 2026Arsenal · Premier League0-2L
Sep 8, 2026Hull City · EFL Cup1-0W
Sep 5, 2026Brentford · Premier League1-1D

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Lech Poznan3501
Sunderland1531

Head-to-head

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Lech Poznan and Sunderland: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.

Out and doubtful

Lech Poznan

No absences reported.

Sunderland

  • H. Diarra (out)
  • R. Mundle (out)
  • D. Ballard (doubtful)
  • B. Brobbey (doubtful)

Most regular starters

Lech Poznan

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • R. Murawski5/5
  • A. Sayyadmanesh4/5
  • J. Pereira4/5
  • M. Gurgul4/5
  • M. Ishak4/5
  • M. Lis4/5
  • M. Skrzypczak4/5
  • P. Rodriguez4/5
  • F. Jagiello3/5
  • W. Monka3/5
  • L. Palma2/5

Sunderland

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • G. Xhaka4/5
  • K. Danso4/5
  • N. Mukiele4/5
  • N. Sadiki4/5
  • R. Roefs4/5
  • B. Brobbey3/5
  • D. Ballard3/5
  • E. Le Fee3/5
  • N. Angulo3/5
  • R. Mandava3/5
  • T. Meunier3/5

First detailed prediction free, no card required.

See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Lech Poznan vs Sunderland prediction?

Our AI gives Lech Poznan a 3% chance of winning, the draw 6% and Sunderland 91%. Sunderland are therefore favourites.

What is the most likely correct score for Lech Poznan vs Sunderland?

0-3 (9.8%), followed by 0-4 (9.8%), 0-5 (7.8%), 0-2 (7.3%) and 1-3 (6.8%).

Will both teams score in Lech Poznan vs Sunderland?

The probability that both Lech Poznan and Sunderland score is 49%. Lech Poznan have a 2% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Sunderland 50%.

How many goals should we expect in Lech Poznan vs Sunderland?

The model expects 4.69 goals (0.69 for Lech Poznan, 4.00 for Sunderland). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 95%, over 2.5 goals 85%, over 3.5 goals 69%.

When and where is Lech Poznan vs Sunderland played?

Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 17:45 (UK time), UEFA Europa League. Venue: Stadion Poznan.

What form are Lech Poznan and Sunderland in?

Lech Poznan: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 9 conceded). Sunderland: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 8 conceded).

How is the Lech Poznan vs Sunderland prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.69 for Lech Poznan, 4.00 for Sunderland) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained