UEFA Europa League· Kick-off : Thursday, October 22, 2026, 17:45 (UK time)
Union St. Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer Sheva prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Union St. Gilloise take on Hapoel Beer Sheva on Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 17:45 (UK time), a UEFA Europa League fixture. Venue: Den Dreef, Heverlee. With a 94% win probability, Union St. Gilloise go in as strong favourites against Hapoel Beer Sheva (1%), with the draw rated at 5%. The most likely correct score is 3-0 (12.0%), ahead of 4-0 (12.0%) and 5-0 (9.6%).
Union St. Gilloise are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (5 wins, 0 draws), scoring 16 and conceding 2. Over their last 5 matches, Hapoel Beer Sheva have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 6 and conceding 6. Recent momentum is clearly with Union St. Gilloise. On average Union St. Gilloise score 3.20 and concede 0.40 goals per game; Hapoel Beer Sheva score 1.20 and concede 1.20. In the table, Union St. Gilloise sit 5th with 3 points from 1 games, Hapoel Beer Sheva 20th with 1 points from 1. 15 places separate the two sides.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Union St. Gilloise and Hapoel Beer Sheva: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Union St. Gilloise or draw" stands at 99%, "Hapoel Beer Sheva or draw" at 6% and "no draw" at 95%.
In short : Our model backs Union St. Gilloise to edge Hapoel Beer Sheva (94% probability). In the table, Union St. Gilloise (5th, 3 pts) host Hapoel Beer Sheva (20th, 1 pts). The model expects goals (over 2.5 at 83%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Union St. Gilloise – Hapoel Beer Sheva. 3-0 is the single most likely scoreline (12.0%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Union St. Gilloise 3-0 Hapoel Beer Sheva | 12.0% |
| Union St. Gilloise 4-0 Hapoel Beer Sheva | 12.0% |
| Union St. Gilloise 5-0 Hapoel Beer Sheva | 9.6% |
| Union St. Gilloise 2-0 Hapoel Beer Sheva | 9.0% |
| Union St. Gilloise 6-0 Hapoel Beer Sheva | 6.4% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 4.49 goals in total (4.00 for Union St. Gilloise, 0.49 for Hapoel Beer Sheva): over 2.5 goals has a 83% probability and both teams to score 38%. Everything points to an open game. Union St. Gilloise keep a clean sheet in 61% of scenarios, Hapoel Beer Sheva in 2%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Union St. Gilloise expected goals | 4.00 |
| Hapoel Beer Sheva expected goals | 0.49 |
| Both teams to score | 38% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 94% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 83% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 66% |
| Union St. Gilloise clean sheet | 61% |
| Hapoel Beer Sheva clean sheet | 2% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Union St. Gilloise
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Antwerp · Jupiler Pro League | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Plzen · UEFA Europa League | 3-0 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Lommel United · Jupiler Pro League | 5-0 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Charleroi · Jupiler Pro League | 3-2 | W |
| Sep 2, 2026 | St. Truiden · Jupiler Pro League | 3-0 | W |
Hapoel Beer Sheva
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Ironi Kiryat Shmona · Ligat Ha'al | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Dinamo Zagreb · UEFA Europa League | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Hapoel Petah Tikva · Ligat Ha'al | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Maccabi Tel Aviv · Ligat Ha'al | 1-4 | L |
| Sep 2, 2026 | Hapoel Haifa · Ligat Ha'al | 2-2 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union St. Gilloise | 5 | 3 | 1 |
| Hapoel Beer Sheva | 20 | 1 | 1 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Union St. Gilloise and Hapoel Beer Sheva: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Union St. Gilloise
No absences reported.
Hapoel Beer Sheva
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Union St. Gilloise
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- B. Zeneli5/5
- H. Koffi5/5
- L. Patris5/5
- M. Biondic5/5
- M. Sylla5/5
- A. Zorgane4/5
- R. Mofokeng4/5
- Guilherme Smith3/5
- K. Mac Allister3/5
- K. Van De Perre3/5
- O. Kricfalusi3/5
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- N. Yehoshua5/5
- O. Marciano5/5
- G. Mizrahi4/5
- A. Ugarriza3/5
- E. Peretz3/5
- J. East3/5
- Miguel Vitor3/5
- P. Amador3/5
- A. C. Ganah2/5
- A. Forson2/5
- I. Nachmias2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Union St. Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer Sheva prediction?
Our AI gives Union St. Gilloise a 94% chance of winning, the draw 5% and Hapoel Beer Sheva 1%. Union St. Gilloise are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Union St. Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer Sheva?
3-0 (12.0%), followed by 4-0 (12.0%), 5-0 (9.6%), 2-0 (9.0%) and 6-0 (6.4%).
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer Sheva?
The probability that both Union St. Gilloise and Hapoel Beer Sheva score is 38%. Union St. Gilloise have a 61% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Hapoel Beer Sheva 2%.
How many goals should we expect in Union St. Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer Sheva?
The model expects 4.49 goals (4.00 for Union St. Gilloise, 0.49 for Hapoel Beer Sheva). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 94%, over 2.5 goals 83%, over 3.5 goals 66%.
When and where is Union St. Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer Sheva played?
Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 17:45 (UK time), UEFA Europa League. Venue: Den Dreef, Heverlee.
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Hapoel Beer Sheva in?
Union St. Gilloise: 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (16 scored, 2 conceded). Hapoel Beer Sheva: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 6 conceded).
How is the Union St. Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer Sheva prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (4.00 for Union St. Gilloise, 0.49 for Hapoel Beer Sheva) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Union St. Gilloise predictions
- All Hapoel Beer Sheva predictions
- UEFA Europa League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology