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UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League· Kick-off : Thursday, July 30, 2026, 19:00 (UK time)

CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag: 0-0 result and AI prediction review

CSKA SofiaCSKA Sofia0 – 0QarabagQarabag

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-0

Final score: CSKA Sofia 0-0 Qarabag (5-4 on penalties). The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for CSKA Sofia (38%), while a draw was rated at only 29%. The final score ranked 5th among the most likely scorelines (6.9%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (51%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (50%): missed.

Match analysis

CSKA Sofia and Qarabag met on Thursday, July 30, 2026, a UEFA Europa League fixture. Venue: Vasil Levski National Sports Academy, Sofia. Before kick-off, our model gave CSKA Sofia a 38% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Qarabag 33%. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (11.6%), followed by 1-1 (11.5%) and 2-0 (9.8%).

CSKA Sofia are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw), scoring 11 and conceding 5. Over their last 5 matches, Qarabag have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 8 and conceding 7. CSKA Sofia therefore arrive in far better shape than Qarabag. On average CSKA Sofia score 2.20 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Qarabag score 1.60 and concede 1.40.

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for CSKA Sofia, 0 for Qarabag and 1 draw. The most recent ended Qarabag 0-0 CSKA Sofia (Jul 23, 2026). In double chance terms, "CSKA Sofia or draw" stands at 67%, "Qarabag or draw" at 62% and "no draw" at 71%.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

38%
CSKA Sofia (Win)
29%
Draw
33%
Qarabag (Win)

Double chance

67%
CSKA Sofia or draw
62%
Qarabag or draw
71%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as CSKA Sofia – Qarabag. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 50% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
CSKA Sofia 1-0 Qarabag11.6%
CSKA Sofia 1-1 Qarabag11.5%
CSKA Sofia 2-0 Qarabag9.8%
CSKA Sofia 2-1 Qarabag9.7%
CSKA Sofia 0-0 Qarabag6.9%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 1.69 expected goals for CSKA Sofia and 0.99 for Qarabag, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 50% and "both teams to score" at 51%. CSKA Sofia keep a clean sheet in 37% of scenarios, Qarabag in 19%.

Probability
CSKA Sofia expected goals1.69
Qarabag expected goals0.99
Both teams to score51%
Over 1.5 goals75%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Over 3.5 goals28%
CSKA Sofia clean sheet37%
Qarabag clean sheet19%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

CSKA Sofia

DateOpponentScore
Jul 23, 2026Qarabag · UEFA Europa League0-0D
Jul 16, 2026Derry City · UEFA Europa League2-1W
Jul 9, 2026Derry City · UEFA Europa League3-2W
Jul 3, 2026Marek · Club Friendlies3-0W
Jun 28, 2026Odra Opole · Club Friendlies3-2W

Qarabag

DateOpponentScore
Jul 23, 2026CSKA Sofia · UEFA Europa League0-0D
Jul 16, 2026Vestri · UEFA Europa League3-0W
Jul 9, 2026Vestri · UEFA Europa League3-0W
Jul 1, 2026Ferencvarosi TC · Club Friendlies0-1L
Jul 1, 2026Metalist 1925 Kharkiv · Club Friendlies2-6L

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Jul 23, 2026Qarabag 0-0 CSKA SofiaUEFA Europa League

Out and doubtful

CSKA Sofia

No absences reported.

Qarabag

No absences reported.

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave CSKA Sofia a 38% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Qarabag 33%. CSKA Sofia are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 0-0.

What is the most likely correct score for CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag?

1-0 (11.6%), followed by 1-1 (11.5%), 2-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.7%) and 0-0 (6.9%).

Will both teams score in CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag?

The probability that both CSKA Sofia and Qarabag score is 51%. CSKA Sofia have a 37% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Qarabag 19%.

How many goals should we expect in CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag?

The model expects 2.68 goals (1.69 for CSKA Sofia, 0.99 for Qarabag). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 75%, over 2.5 goals 50%, over 3.5 goals 28%.

When and where is CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag played?

Thursday, July 30, 2026 at 19:00 (UK time), UEFA Europa League. Venue: Vasil Levski National Sports Academy, Sofia.

What form are CSKA Sofia and Qarabag in?

CSKA Sofia: 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (11 scored, 5 conceded). Qarabag: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 7 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between CSKA Sofia and Qarabag?

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for CSKA Sofia, 0 for Qarabag and 1 draw. The most recent ended Qarabag 0-0 CSKA Sofia (Jul 23, 2026).

What was the CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: CSKA Sofia 0-0 Qarabag (5-4 on penalties). The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for CSKA Sofia (38%), while a draw was rated at only 29%. The final score ranked 5th among the most likely scorelines (6.9%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (51%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (50%): missed.

How is the CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.69 for CSKA Sofia, 0.99 for Qarabag) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained