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UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League· Kick-off : Thursday, July 30, 2026, 18:00 (UK time)

Pafos vs HNK Hajduk Split: 2-0 result and AI prediction review

PafosPafos2 – 0HNK Hajduk SplitHNK Hajduk Split

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-1

Final score: Pafos 2-0 HNK Hajduk Split. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Pafos was the model's favourite outcome (55%). The final score ranked 4th among the most likely scorelines (8.3%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (48%): correct.

Match analysis

Pafos vs HNK Hajduk Split was played on Thursday, July 30, 2026 (UEFA Europa League). Venue: Alphamega Stadium, Limassol. Before kick-off, our model gave Pafos a 55% chance of winning, the draw 23% and HNK Hajduk Split 22%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (12.2%), ahead of 1-0 (11.0%) and 2-1 (9.2%).

Over their last 5 matches, Pafos have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 6 and conceding 5. Over their last 5 matches, HNK Hajduk Split have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 7 and conceding 2. Recent momentum is clearly with HNK Hajduk Split. On average Pafos score 1.20 and concede 1.00 goals per game; HNK Hajduk Split score 1.40 and concede 0.40.

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Pafos, 1 for HNK Hajduk Split and 0 draws. The most recent ended HNK Hajduk Split 2-0 Pafos (Jul 23, 2026). In double chance terms, "Pafos or draw" stands at 78%, "HNK Hajduk Split or draw" at 45% and "no draw" at 77%.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

55%
Pafos (Win)
23%
Draw
22%
HNK Hajduk Split (Win)

Double chance

78%
Pafos or draw
45%
HNK Hajduk Split or draw
77%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Pafos – HNK Hajduk Split. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.2%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Pafos 1-1 HNK Hajduk Split12.2%
Pafos 1-0 HNK Hajduk Split11.0%
Pafos 2-1 HNK Hajduk Split9.2%
Pafos 2-0 HNK Hajduk Split8.3%
Pafos 0-1 HNK Hajduk Split8.2%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 2.61 goals in total (1.50 for Pafos, 1.11 for HNK Hajduk Split): over 2.5 goals has a 48% probability and both teams to score 52%. Pafos keep a clean sheet in 33% of scenarios, HNK Hajduk Split in 22%.

Probability
Pafos expected goals1.50
HNK Hajduk Split expected goals1.11
Both teams to score52%
Over 1.5 goals74%
Over 2.5 goals48%
Over 3.5 goals27%
Pafos clean sheet33%
HNK Hajduk Split clean sheet22%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Pafos

DateOpponentScore
Jul 23, 2026HNK Hajduk Split · UEFA Europa League0-2L
Jul 8, 2026FK Jablonec · Club Friendlies0-0D
Jul 3, 2026Cracovia Krakow · Club Friendlies2-1W
Jan 28, 2026Slavia Praha · UEFA Champions League4-1W
Jan 21, 2026Chelsea · UEFA Champions League0-1L

HNK Hajduk Split

DateOpponentScore
Jul 23, 2026Pafos · UEFA Europa League2-0W
Jul 16, 2026Žilina · UEFA Europa League1-2L
Jul 9, 2026Žilina · UEFA Europa League2-0W
Jul 1, 2026Celje · Club Friendlies1-0W
Jun 27, 2026LNZ Cherkasy · Club Friendlies1-0W

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Jul 23, 2026HNK Hajduk Split 2-0 PafosUEFA Europa League

Out and doubtful

Pafos

No absences reported.

HNK Hajduk Split

No absences reported.

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Pafos vs HNK Hajduk Split prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Pafos a 55% chance of winning, the draw 23% and HNK Hajduk Split 22%. Pafos are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-0.

What is the most likely correct score for Pafos vs HNK Hajduk Split?

1-1 (12.2%), followed by 1-0 (11.0%), 2-1 (9.2%), 2-0 (8.3%) and 0-1 (8.2%).

Will both teams score in Pafos vs HNK Hajduk Split?

The probability that both Pafos and HNK Hajduk Split score is 52%. Pafos have a 33% chance of keeping a clean sheet, HNK Hajduk Split 22%.

How many goals should we expect in Pafos vs HNK Hajduk Split?

The model expects 2.61 goals (1.50 for Pafos, 1.11 for HNK Hajduk Split). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 48%, over 3.5 goals 27%.

When and where is Pafos vs HNK Hajduk Split played?

Thursday, July 30, 2026 at 18:00 (UK time), UEFA Europa League. Venue: Alphamega Stadium, Limassol.

What form are Pafos and HNK Hajduk Split in?

Pafos: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 5 conceded). HNK Hajduk Split: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 2 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Pafos and HNK Hajduk Split?

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Pafos, 1 for HNK Hajduk Split and 0 draws. The most recent ended HNK Hajduk Split 2-0 Pafos (Jul 23, 2026).

What was the Pafos vs HNK Hajduk Split result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Pafos 2-0 HNK Hajduk Split. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Pafos was the model's favourite outcome (55%). The final score ranked 4th among the most likely scorelines (8.3%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (48%): correct.

How is the Pafos vs HNK Hajduk Split prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.50 for Pafos, 1.11 for HNK Hajduk Split) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained