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UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League· Kick-off : Thursday, August 27, 2026, 17:00 (UK time)

Saburtalo vs Jagiellonia: 1-2 result and AI prediction review

SaburtaloSaburtalo1 – 2JagielloniaJagiellonia

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-1

Final score: Saburtalo 1-2 Jagiellonia. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Saburtalo (48%), while victory for Jagiellonia was rated at only 27%. The final score ranked 7th among the most likely scorelines (6.5%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (49%): missed.

Match analysis

Saburtalo vs Jagiellonia was played on Thursday, August 27, 2026 (UEFA Europa League). Venue: Mikheil Meskhi Stadium, Tbilisi. Before kick-off, our model gave Saburtalo a 48% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Jagiellonia 27%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (12.1%), ahead of 1-0 (11.2%) and 2-1 (9.3%).

Saburtalo have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 3 and conceding 8. Jagiellonia are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 11 and conceding 3. Recent momentum is clearly with Jagiellonia. On average Saburtalo score 0.60 and concede 1.60 goals per game; Jagiellonia score 2.20 and concede 0.60.

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Saburtalo, 1 for Jagiellonia and 0 draws. The most recent ended Jagiellonia 4-0 Saburtalo (Aug 20, 2026). In double chance terms, "Saburtalo or draw" stands at 73%, "Jagiellonia or draw" at 52% and "no draw" at 75%.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

48%
Saburtalo (Win)
25%
Draw
27%
Jagiellonia (Win)

Double chance

73%
Saburtalo or draw
52%
Jagiellonia or draw
75%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Saburtalo – Jagiellonia. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.1%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Saburtalo 1-1 Jagiellonia12.1%
Saburtalo 1-0 Jagiellonia11.2%
Saburtalo 2-1 Jagiellonia9.3%
Saburtalo 2-0 Jagiellonia8.6%
Saburtalo 0-1 Jagiellonia7.9%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 2.62 goals in total (1.54 for Saburtalo, 1.08 for Jagiellonia): over 2.5 goals has a 49% probability and both teams to score 52%. Saburtalo keep a clean sheet in 34% of scenarios, Jagiellonia in 21%.

Probability
Saburtalo expected goals1.54
Jagiellonia expected goals1.08
Both teams to score52%
Over 1.5 goals74%
Over 2.5 goals49%
Over 3.5 goals27%
Saburtalo clean sheet34%
Jagiellonia clean sheet21%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Saburtalo

DateOpponentScore
Aug 20, 2026Jagiellonia · UEFA Europa League0-4L
Aug 11, 2026Larne · UEFA Europa League2-1W
Aug 4, 2026Larne · UEFA Europa League0-0D
Jul 29, 2026Slovan Bratislava · UEFA Champions League1-1D
Jul 21, 2026Slovan Bratislava · UEFA Champions League0-2L

Jagiellonia

DateOpponentScore
Aug 20, 2026Saburtalo · UEFA Europa League4-0W
Aug 13, 2026Rangers · UEFA Europa League1-1D
Aug 6, 2026Rangers · UEFA Europa League2-1W
Jul 9, 2026Polessya · Club Friendlies0-0D
Jul 4, 2026Pogoń Siedlce · Club Friendlies4-1W

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Aug 20, 2026Jagiellonia 4-0 SaburtaloUEFA Europa League

Out and doubtful

Saburtalo

No absences reported.

Jagiellonia

No absences reported.

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Saburtalo vs Jagiellonia prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Saburtalo a 48% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Jagiellonia 27%. Saburtalo are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-2.

What is the most likely correct score for Saburtalo vs Jagiellonia?

1-1 (12.1%), followed by 1-0 (11.2%), 2-1 (9.3%), 2-0 (8.6%) and 0-1 (7.9%).

Will both teams score in Saburtalo vs Jagiellonia?

The probability that both Saburtalo and Jagiellonia score is 52%. Saburtalo have a 34% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Jagiellonia 21%.

How many goals should we expect in Saburtalo vs Jagiellonia?

The model expects 2.62 goals (1.54 for Saburtalo, 1.08 for Jagiellonia). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 49%, over 3.5 goals 27%.

When and where is Saburtalo vs Jagiellonia played?

Thursday, August 27, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), UEFA Europa League. Venue: Mikheil Meskhi Stadium, Tbilisi.

What form are Saburtalo and Jagiellonia in?

Saburtalo: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 8 conceded). Jagiellonia: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (11 scored, 3 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Saburtalo and Jagiellonia?

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Saburtalo, 1 for Jagiellonia and 0 draws. The most recent ended Jagiellonia 4-0 Saburtalo (Aug 20, 2026).

What was the Saburtalo vs Jagiellonia result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Saburtalo 1-2 Jagiellonia. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Saburtalo (48%), while victory for Jagiellonia was rated at only 27%. The final score ranked 7th among the most likely scorelines (6.5%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (49%): missed.

How is the Saburtalo vs Jagiellonia prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.54 for Saburtalo, 1.08 for Jagiellonia) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

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Key terms explained