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FIFA World CupFIFA World Cup· Kick-off : Wednesday, July 1, 2026, 21:00 (UK time)

Belgium vs Senegal: 3-2 result and AI prediction review

BelgiumBelgium3 – 2SenegalSenegal

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 2-1

Final score: Belgium 3-2 Senegal. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Belgium at 58%. The final score ranked 10th among the most likely scorelines (4.7%), behind 2-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (65%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (78%): correct.

Match analysis

Belgium and Senegal met on Wednesday, July 1, 2026, a FIFA World Cup fixture. Venue: Lumen Field, Seattle. Before kick-off, our model gave Belgium a 58% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Senegal 18%. On the correct score, 2-1 comes out on top (8.3%), followed by 3-1 (8.2%) and 2-0 (7.2%).

Belgium are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 13 and conceding 2. Senegal have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 10 and conceding 9. Belgium therefore arrive in far better shape than Senegal. On average Belgium score 2.60 and concede 0.40 goals per game; Senegal score 2.00 and concede 1.80. In the table, Belgium sit 1st with 5 points from 3 games, Senegal 8th with 3 points from 3. 7 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Belgium have averaged 1.91 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.78 for Senegal.

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Belgium and Senegal: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. Belgium out or doubtful: J. Doku, N. Ngoy and Z. Debast. Senegal: É. Mendy. In double chance terms, "Belgium or draw" stands at 82%, "Senegal or draw" at 42% and "no draw" at 76%.

In short : Belgium leads Group F with 5 points from 3 matches and a +4 goal difference, while Senegal sits 8th with 3 points and a +2 goal difference. Belgium's superior xG average (1.91 vs 1.78) and unbeaten record contrast sharply with Senegal's two losses in their last three outings.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

58%
Belgium (Win)
24%
Draw
18%
Senegal (Win)

Double chance

82%
Belgium or draw
42%
Senegal or draw
76%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Belgium – Senegal. 2-1 is the single most likely scoreline (8.3%); the 5 scores below add up to 37% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Belgium 2-1 Senegal8.3%
Belgium 3-1 Senegal8.2%
Belgium 2-0 Senegal7.2%
Belgium 3-0 Senegal7.1%
Belgium 4-1 Senegal6.0%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 2.96 expected goals for Belgium and 1.15 for Senegal, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 78% and "both teams to score" at 65%. Goals look likely in this one. Belgium keep a clean sheet in 32% of scenarios, Senegal in 5%.

Probability
Belgium expected goals2.96
Senegal expected goals1.15
Both teams to score65%
Over 1.5 goals92%
Over 2.5 goals78%
Over 3.5 goals59%
Belgium clean sheet32%
Senegal clean sheet5%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Belgium

DateOpponentScore
Jun 27, 2026New Zealand · FIFA World Cup5-1W
Jun 21, 2026Iran · FIFA World Cup0-0D
Jun 15, 2026Egypt · FIFA World Cup1-1D
Jun 6, 2026Tunisia · International Friendlies5-0W
Jun 2, 2026Croatia · International Friendlies2-0W

Senegal

DateOpponentScore
Jun 26, 2026Iraq · FIFA World Cup5-0W
Jun 23, 2026Norway · FIFA World Cup2-3L
Jun 16, 2026France · FIFA World Cup1-3L
Jun 10, 2026Saudi Arabia · International Friendlies0-0D
May 31, 2026United States · International Friendlies2-3L

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Belgium153
Senegal833

Head-to-head

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Belgium and Senegal: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.

Out and doubtful

Belgium

  • J. Doku (out)
  • N. Ngoy (out)
  • Z. Debast (out)

Senegal

  • É. Mendy (out)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Belgium vs Senegal prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Belgium a 58% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Senegal 18%. Belgium are therefore favourites. Final score: 3-2.

What is the most likely correct score for Belgium vs Senegal?

2-1 (8.3%), followed by 3-1 (8.2%), 2-0 (7.2%), 3-0 (7.1%) and 4-1 (6.0%).

Will both teams score in Belgium vs Senegal?

The probability that both Belgium and Senegal score is 65%. Belgium have a 32% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Senegal 5%.

How many goals should we expect in Belgium vs Senegal?

The model expects 4.11 goals (2.96 for Belgium, 1.15 for Senegal). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 92%, over 2.5 goals 78%, over 3.5 goals 59%.

When and where is Belgium vs Senegal played?

Wednesday, July 1, 2026 at 21:00 (UK time), FIFA World Cup. Venue: Lumen Field, Seattle.

What form are Belgium and Senegal in?

Belgium: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (13 scored, 2 conceded). Senegal: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 9 conceded).

What was the Belgium vs Senegal result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Belgium 3-2 Senegal. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Belgium at 58%. The final score ranked 10th among the most likely scorelines (4.7%), behind 2-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (65%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (78%): correct.

How is the Belgium vs Senegal prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.96 for Belgium, 1.15 for Senegal) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained