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FIFA World CupFIFA World Cup· Kick-off : Tuesday, June 30, 2026, 02:00 (UK time)

Netherlands vs Morocco: 1-1 result and AI prediction review

NetherlandsNetherlands1 – 1MoroccoMorocco

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score foundMost likely score before kick-off : 1-1

Final score: Netherlands 1-1 Morocco (2-3 on penalties). The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Netherlands (42%), while a draw was rated at only 28%. The exact score 1-1 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (8.1%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (72%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (73%): missed.

Match analysis

Netherlands vs Morocco was played on Tuesday, June 30, 2026 (FIFA World Cup). Venue: Estadio BBVA, Monterrey. Before kick-off, our model gave Netherlands a 42% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Morocco 30%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (8.1%), ahead of 2-1 (7.9%) and 1-2 (7.5%).

Over their last 5 matches, Netherlands have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 12 and conceding 6. Morocco are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 11 and conceding 4. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Netherlands score 2.40 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Morocco score 2.20 and concede 0.80. In the table, Netherlands sit 1st with 7 points from 3 games, Morocco 2nd with 7 points from 3. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Netherlands have averaged 1.75 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.04 for Morocco.

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Netherlands, 0 for Morocco and 0 draws. In double chance terms, "Netherlands or draw" stands at 70%, "Morocco or draw" at 58% and "no draw" at 72%.

In short : Netherlands leads Group F on goal difference despite identical points with Morocco, both unbeaten through three matches. Morocco edges in expected goals (2.04 vs 1.75 xG) while the Dutch hold the head-to-head advantage with one previous victory.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

42%
Netherlands (Win)
28%
Draw
30%
Morocco (Win)

Double chance

70%
Netherlands or draw
58%
Morocco or draw
72%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Netherlands – Morocco. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (8.1%); the 5 scores below add up to 36% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Netherlands 1-1 Morocco8.1%
Netherlands 2-1 Morocco7.9%
Netherlands 1-2 Morocco7.5%
Netherlands 2-2 Morocco7.3%
Netherlands 3-1 Morocco5.1%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 3.78 goals in total (1.94 for Netherlands, 1.84 for Morocco): over 2.5 goals has a 73% probability and both teams to score 72%. Everything points to an open game. Netherlands keep a clean sheet in 16% of scenarios, Morocco in 14%.

Probability
Netherlands expected goals1.94
Morocco expected goals1.84
Both teams to score72%
Over 1.5 goals89%
Over 2.5 goals73%
Over 3.5 goals52%
Netherlands clean sheet16%
Morocco clean sheet14%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Netherlands

DateOpponentScore
Jun 26, 2026Tunisia · FIFA World Cup3-1W
Jun 20, 2026Sweden · FIFA World Cup5-1W
Jun 14, 2026Japan · FIFA World Cup2-2D
Jun 8, 2026Uzbekistan · International Friendlies2-1W
Jun 3, 2026Algeria · International Friendlies0-1L

Morocco

DateOpponentScore
Jun 24, 2026Haiti · FIFA World Cup4-2W
Jun 19, 2026Scotland · FIFA World Cup1-0W
Jun 13, 2026Brazil · FIFA World Cup1-1D
Jun 7, 2026Norway · International Friendlies1-1D
Jun 2, 2026Madagascar · International Friendlies4-0W

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Netherlands173
Morocco273

Head-to-head

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Netherlands, 0 for Morocco and 0 draws.

Out and doubtful

Netherlands

No absences reported.

Morocco

No absences reported.

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Netherlands vs Morocco prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Netherlands a 42% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Morocco 30%. Netherlands are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 1-1.

What is the most likely correct score for Netherlands vs Morocco?

1-1 (8.1%), followed by 2-1 (7.9%), 1-2 (7.5%), 2-2 (7.3%) and 3-1 (5.1%).

Will both teams score in Netherlands vs Morocco?

The probability that both Netherlands and Morocco score is 72%. Netherlands have a 16% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Morocco 14%.

How many goals should we expect in Netherlands vs Morocco?

The model expects 3.78 goals (1.94 for Netherlands, 1.84 for Morocco). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 89%, over 2.5 goals 73%, over 3.5 goals 52%.

When and where is Netherlands vs Morocco played?

Tuesday, June 30, 2026 at 02:00 (UK time), FIFA World Cup. Venue: Estadio BBVA, Monterrey.

What form are Netherlands and Morocco in?

Netherlands: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (12 scored, 6 conceded). Morocco: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (11 scored, 4 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Netherlands and Morocco?

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Netherlands, 0 for Morocco and 0 draws.

What was the Netherlands vs Morocco result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Netherlands 1-1 Morocco (2-3 on penalties). The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Netherlands (42%), while a draw was rated at only 28%. The exact score 1-1 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (8.1%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (72%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (73%): missed.

How is the Netherlands vs Morocco prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.94 for Netherlands, 1.84 for Morocco) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

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