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FIFA World CupFIFA World Cup· Kick-off : Monday, June 29, 2026, 21:30 (UK time)

Germany vs Paraguay: 1-1 result and AI prediction review

GermanyGermany1 – 1ParaguayParaguay

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 3-0

Final score: Germany 1-1 Paraguay (3-4 on penalties). The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Germany (72%), while a draw was rated at only 18%. The model considered this score unlikely (2.5%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (22%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (68%): missed.

Match analysis

Germany and Paraguay met on Monday, June 29, 2026, a FIFA World Cup fixture. Venue: Gillette Stadium, Boston. Before kick-off, our model gave Germany a 72% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Paraguay 10%. On the correct score, 3-0 comes out on top (17.1%), followed by 2-0 (15.9%) and 4-0 (13.9%).

Over their last 5 matches, Germany have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 16 and conceding 5. Over their last 5 matches, Paraguay have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 7 and conceding 6. Germany therefore arrive in far better shape than Paraguay. On average Germany score 3.20 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Paraguay score 1.40 and concede 1.20. In the table, Germany sit 1st with 6 points from 3 games, Paraguay 7th with 4 points from 3. 6 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Germany have averaged 2.25 xG (expected goals) per match, against 0.37 for Paraguay.

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Germany and Paraguay: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. Germany out or doubtful: N. Brown and N. Schlotterbeck. Paraguay: M. Almirón and D. Gómez. In double chance terms, "Germany or draw" stands at 90%, "Paraguay or draw" at 28% and "no draw" at 82%.

In short : Germany tops the group with 6 points and a +6 goal difference, averaging 2.25 expected goals per match, while Paraguay sits seventh with just 4 points and a -2 goal difference. Paraguay's attacking output of 0.37 xG per game presents a stark contrast to Germany's offensive dominance, suggesting a significant quality gap between the two sides.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

72%
Germany (Win)
18%
Draw
10%
Paraguay (Win)

Double chance

90%
Germany or draw
28%
Paraguay or draw
82%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Germany – Paraguay. 3-0 is the single most likely scoreline (17.1%); the 5 scores below add up to 66% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Germany 3-0 Paraguay17.1%
Germany 2-0 Paraguay15.9%
Germany 4-0 Paraguay13.9%
Germany 1-0 Paraguay9.8%
Germany 5-0 Paraguay9.0%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 3.24 expected goals for Germany and 0.26 for Paraguay, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 68% and "both teams to score" at 22%. Goals look likely in this one. Germany keep a clean sheet in 77% of scenarios, Paraguay in 4%.

Probability
Germany expected goals3.24
Paraguay expected goals0.26
Both teams to score22%
Over 1.5 goals86%
Over 2.5 goals68%
Over 3.5 goals46%
Germany clean sheet77%
Paraguay clean sheet4%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Germany

DateOpponentScore
Jun 25, 2026Ecuador · FIFA World Cup1-2L
Jun 20, 2026Ivory Coast · FIFA World Cup2-1W
Jun 14, 2026Curaçao · FIFA World Cup7-1W
Jun 6, 2026United States · International Friendlies2-1W
May 31, 2026Finland · International Friendlies4-0W

Paraguay

DateOpponentScore
Jun 26, 2026Australia · FIFA World Cup0-0D
Jun 20, 2026Türkiye · FIFA World Cup1-0W
Jun 13, 2026United States · FIFA World Cup1-4L
Jun 5, 2026Nicaragua · International Friendlies4-0W
Mar 31, 2026Morocco · International Friendlies1-2L

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Germany163
Paraguay743

Head-to-head

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Germany and Paraguay: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.

Out and doubtful

Germany

  • N. Brown (out)
  • N. Schlotterbeck (out)

Paraguay

  • M. Almirón (out)
  • D. Gómez (out)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Germany vs Paraguay prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Germany a 72% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Paraguay 10%. Germany are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-1.

What is the most likely correct score for Germany vs Paraguay?

3-0 (17.1%), followed by 2-0 (15.9%), 4-0 (13.9%), 1-0 (9.8%) and 5-0 (9.0%).

Will both teams score in Germany vs Paraguay?

The probability that both Germany and Paraguay score is 22%. Germany have a 77% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Paraguay 4%.

How many goals should we expect in Germany vs Paraguay?

The model expects 3.50 goals (3.24 for Germany, 0.26 for Paraguay). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 86%, over 2.5 goals 68%, over 3.5 goals 46%.

When and where is Germany vs Paraguay played?

Monday, June 29, 2026 at 21:30 (UK time), FIFA World Cup. Venue: Gillette Stadium, Boston.

What form are Germany and Paraguay in?

Germany: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (16 scored, 5 conceded). Paraguay: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 6 conceded).

What was the Germany vs Paraguay result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Germany 1-1 Paraguay (3-4 on penalties). The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Germany (72%), while a draw was rated at only 18%. The model considered this score unlikely (2.5%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (22%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (68%): missed.

How is the Germany vs Paraguay prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (3.24 for Germany, 0.26 for Paraguay) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained