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FIFA World CupFIFA World Cup· Kick-off : Monday, June 29, 2026, 18:00 (UK time)

Brazil vs Japan: 2-1 result and AI prediction review

BrazilBrazil2 – 1JapanJapan

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 3-0

Final score: Brazil 2-1 Japan. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Brazil was the model's favourite outcome (68%). The final score ranked 4th among the most likely scorelines (7.4%), behind 3-0. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (60%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (80%): correct.

Match analysis

Brazil vs Japan was played on Monday, June 29, 2026 (FIFA World Cup). Venue: NRG Stadium, Houston. Before kick-off, our model gave Brazil a 68% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Japan 14%. The most likely correct score is 3-0 (8.4%), ahead of 3-1 (8.1%) and 2-0 (7.6%).

Brazil are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw), scoring 15 and conceding 4. Japan are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 9 and conceding 3. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Brazil score 3.00 and concede 0.80 goals per game; Japan score 1.80 and concede 0.60. In the table, Brazil sit 1st with 7 points from 3 games, Japan 2nd with 5 points from 3. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Brazil have averaged 2.45 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.31 for Japan.

In the last 4 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Brazil, 1 for Japan and 0 draws. Brazil out or doubtful: Neymar and Raphinha. Japan: S. Machino and T. Kubo. In double chance terms, "Brazil or draw" stands at 86%, "Japan or draw" at 32% and "no draw" at 82%.

In short : Brazil leads Group standings with 7 points from 3 matches and a superior goal difference of +6, while Japan sits second with 5 points. Brazil's expected goals average of 2.45 per match significantly outpaces Japan's 1.31, and Brazil holds a 3-1 head-to-head advantage in their history.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

68%
Brazil (Win)
18%
Draw
14%
Japan (Win)

Double chance

86%
Brazil or draw
32%
Japan or draw
82%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Brazil – Japan. 3-0 is the single most likely scoreline (8.4%); the 5 scores below add up to 38% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Brazil 3-0 Japan8.4%
Brazil 3-1 Japan8.1%
Brazil 2-0 Japan7.6%
Brazil 2-1 Japan7.4%
Brazil 4-0 Japan6.9%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 4.28 goals in total (3.31 for Brazil, 0.97 for Japan): over 2.5 goals has a 80% probability and both teams to score 60%. Everything points to an open game. Brazil keep a clean sheet in 38% of scenarios, Japan in 4%.

Probability
Brazil expected goals3.31
Japan expected goals0.97
Both teams to score60%
Over 1.5 goals93%
Over 2.5 goals80%
Over 3.5 goals62%
Brazil clean sheet38%
Japan clean sheet4%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Brazil

DateOpponentScore
Jun 24, 2026Scotland · FIFA World Cup3-0W
Jun 20, 2026Haiti · FIFA World Cup3-0W
Jun 13, 2026Morocco · FIFA World Cup1-1D
Jun 6, 2026Egypt · International Friendlies2-1W
May 31, 2026Panama · International Friendlies6-2W

Japan

DateOpponentScore
Jun 26, 2026Sweden · FIFA World Cup1-1D
Jun 21, 2026Tunisia · FIFA World Cup4-0W
Jun 14, 2026Netherlands · FIFA World Cup2-2D
May 31, 2026Iceland · International Friendlies1-0W
Mar 31, 2026England · International Friendlies1-0W

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Brazil173
Japan253

Head-to-head

In the last 4 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Brazil, 1 for Japan and 0 draws.

Out and doubtful

Brazil

  • Neymar (out)
  • Raphinha (out)

Japan

  • S. Machino (out)
  • T. Kubo (out)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Brazil vs Japan prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Brazil a 68% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Japan 14%. Brazil are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-1.

What is the most likely correct score for Brazil vs Japan?

3-0 (8.4%), followed by 3-1 (8.1%), 2-0 (7.6%), 2-1 (7.4%) and 4-0 (6.9%).

Will both teams score in Brazil vs Japan?

The probability that both Brazil and Japan score is 60%. Brazil have a 38% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Japan 4%.

How many goals should we expect in Brazil vs Japan?

The model expects 4.28 goals (3.31 for Brazil, 0.97 for Japan). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 93%, over 2.5 goals 80%, over 3.5 goals 62%.

When and where is Brazil vs Japan played?

Monday, June 29, 2026 at 18:00 (UK time), FIFA World Cup. Venue: NRG Stadium, Houston.

What form are Brazil and Japan in?

Brazil: 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (15 scored, 4 conceded). Japan: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 3 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Brazil and Japan?

In the last 4 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Brazil, 1 for Japan and 0 draws.

What was the Brazil vs Japan result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Brazil 2-1 Japan. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Brazil was the model's favourite outcome (68%). The final score ranked 4th among the most likely scorelines (7.4%), behind 3-0. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (60%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (80%): correct.

How is the Brazil vs Japan prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (3.31 for Brazil, 0.97 for Japan) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained