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FIFA World CupFIFA World Cup· Kick-off : Sunday, June 28, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)

South Africa vs Canada: 0-1 result and AI prediction review

South AfricaSouth Africa0 – 1CanadaCanada

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-1

Final score: South Africa 0-1 Canada. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for South Africa (38%), while victory for Canada was rated at only 34%. The final score ranked 3rd among the most likely scorelines (10.9%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (48%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (42%): correct.

Match analysis

South Africa and Canada met on Sunday, June 28, 2026, a FIFA World Cup fixture. Venue: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood. Before kick-off, our model gave South Africa a 38% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Canada 34%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (13.2%), followed by 1-0 (11.7%) and 0-1 (10.9%).

South Africa have won just one of their last 5 matches (3 draws, 1 defeat), scoring 3 and conceding 4. Over their last 5 matches, Canada have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 11 and conceding 4. Both sides come in with similar form. On average South Africa score 0.60 and concede 0.80 goals per game; Canada score 2.20 and concede 0.80. In the table, South Africa sit 2nd with 4 points from 3 games, Canada 2nd with 4 points from 3. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, South Africa have averaged 0.85 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.50 for Canada.

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between South Africa and Canada: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. South Africa out or doubtful: T. Mokoena. Canada: I. Koné and A. Jones. In double chance terms, "South Africa or draw" stands at 66%, "Canada or draw" at 62% and "no draw" at 72%.

In short : South Africa and Canada enter level on 4 points with identical records, but Canada's superior expected goals average (2.5 vs 0.85) and positive goal difference (+5 vs -1) suggest attacking dominance. South Africa's recent form shows more consistency with two draws, while Canada has won two of their last three matches.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

38%
South Africa (Win)
28%
Draw
34%
Canada (Win)

Double chance

66%
South Africa or draw
62%
Canada or draw
72%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as South Africa – Canada. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (13.2%); the 5 scores below add up to 53% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
South Africa 1-1 Canada13.2%
South Africa 1-0 Canada11.7%
South Africa 0-1 Canada10.9%
South Africa 0-0 Canada9.6%
South Africa 2-1 Canada8.0%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 1.21 expected goals for South Africa and 1.13 for Canada, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 42% and "both teams to score" at 48%. Few goals are expected here. South Africa keep a clean sheet in 32% of scenarios, Canada in 30%.

Probability
South Africa expected goals1.21
Canada expected goals1.13
Both teams to score48%
Over 1.5 goals68%
Over 2.5 goals42%
Over 3.5 goals21%
South Africa clean sheet32%
Canada clean sheet30%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

South Africa

DateOpponentScore
Jun 25, 2026South Korea · FIFA World Cup1-0W
Jun 18, 2026Czechia · FIFA World Cup1-1D
Jun 11, 2026Mexico · FIFA World Cup0-2L
Jun 6, 2026Jamaica · International Friendlies1-1D
May 29, 2026Nicaragua · International Friendlies0-0D

Canada

DateOpponentScore
Jun 24, 2026Switzerland · FIFA World Cup1-2L
Jun 18, 2026Qatar · FIFA World Cup6-0W
Jun 12, 2026Bosnia & Herzegovina · FIFA World Cup1-1D
Jun 6, 2026Ireland · International Friendlies1-1D
Jun 2, 2026Uzbekistan · International Friendlies2-0W

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
South Africa243
Canada243

Head-to-head

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between South Africa and Canada: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.

Out and doubtful

South Africa

  • T. Mokoena (out)

Canada

  • I. Koné (out)
  • A. Jones (out)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the South Africa vs Canada prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave South Africa a 38% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Canada 34%. South Africa are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 0-1.

What is the most likely correct score for South Africa vs Canada?

1-1 (13.2%), followed by 1-0 (11.7%), 0-1 (10.9%), 0-0 (9.6%) and 2-1 (8.0%).

Will both teams score in South Africa vs Canada?

The probability that both South Africa and Canada score is 48%. South Africa have a 32% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Canada 30%.

How many goals should we expect in South Africa vs Canada?

The model expects 2.34 goals (1.21 for South Africa, 1.13 for Canada). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 68%, over 2.5 goals 42%, over 3.5 goals 21%.

When and where is South Africa vs Canada played?

Sunday, June 28, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), FIFA World Cup. Venue: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood.

What form are South Africa and Canada in?

South Africa: 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 4 conceded). Canada: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (11 scored, 4 conceded).

What was the South Africa vs Canada result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: South Africa 0-1 Canada. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for South Africa (38%), while victory for Canada was rated at only 34%. The final score ranked 3rd among the most likely scorelines (10.9%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (48%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (42%): correct.

How is the South Africa vs Canada prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.21 for South Africa, 1.13 for Canada) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained