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FIFA World CupFIFA World Cup· Kick-off : Saturday, June 27, 2026, 22:00 (UK time)

Croatia vs Ghana: 2-1 result and AI prediction review

CroatiaCroatia2 – 1GhanaGhana

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-0

Final score: Croatia 2-1 Ghana. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Croatia was the model's favourite outcome (38%). The final score ranked 6th among the most likely scorelines (7.5%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (40%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (33%): missed.

Match analysis

Croatia vs Ghana was played on Saturday, June 27, 2026 (FIFA World Cup). Venue: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia. Before kick-off, our model gave Croatia a 38% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Ghana 35%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 (14.8%), ahead of 1-1 (13.4%) and 0-0 (13.1%).

Over their last 5 matches, Croatia have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 6 and conceding 10. Ghana have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 3 and conceding 5. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Croatia score 1.20 and concede 2.00 goals per game; Ghana score 0.60 and concede 1.00. In the table, Croatia sit 7th with 3 points from 2 games, Ghana 2nd with 4 points from 2. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Croatia have averaged 0.93 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.09 for Ghana.

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Croatia and Ghana: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Croatia or draw" stands at 65%, "Ghana or draw" at 62% and "no draw" at 73%.

In short : Croatia enters with mixed form (1W-1L in group play) and a -1 goal differential, while Ghana sits atop their group with 4 points unbeaten. Ghana's superior xG (1.09 vs 0.93) and undefeated record give them a slight edge, though Croatia's ranking and home status keep this competitive.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

38%
Croatia (Win)
27%
Draw
35%
Ghana (Win)

Double chance

65%
Croatia or draw
62%
Ghana or draw
73%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Croatia – Ghana. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (14.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 62% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Croatia 1-0 Ghana14.8%
Croatia 1-1 Ghana13.4%
Croatia 0-0 Ghana13.1%
Croatia 0-1 Ghana11.8%
Croatia 2-0 Ghana8.4%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 2.03 goals in total (1.13 for Croatia, 0.90 for Ghana): over 2.5 goals has a 33% probability and both teams to score 40%. A tight, low-scoring game is on the cards. Croatia keep a clean sheet in 41% of scenarios, Ghana in 32%.

Probability
Croatia expected goals1.13
Ghana expected goals0.90
Both teams to score40%
Over 1.5 goals60%
Over 2.5 goals33%
Over 3.5 goals15%
Croatia clean sheet41%
Ghana clean sheet32%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Croatia

DateOpponentScore
Jun 24, 2026Panama · FIFA World Cup1-0W
Jun 17, 2026England · FIFA World Cup2-4L
Jun 7, 2026Slovenia · International Friendlies2-1W
Jun 2, 2026Belgium · International Friendlies0-2L
Apr 1, 2026Brazil · International Friendlies1-3L

Ghana

DateOpponentScore
Jun 23, 2026England · FIFA World Cup0-0D
Jun 18, 2026Panama · FIFA World Cup1-0W
Jun 2, 2026Wales · International Friendlies1-1D
May 23, 2026Mexico · International Friendlies0-2L
Mar 30, 2026Germany · International Friendlies1-2L

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Croatia732
Ghana242

Head-to-head

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Croatia and Ghana: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.

Out and doubtful

Croatia

No absences reported.

Ghana

No absences reported.

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Croatia vs Ghana prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Croatia a 38% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Ghana 35%. Croatia are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 2-1.

What is the most likely correct score for Croatia vs Ghana?

1-0 (14.8%), followed by 1-1 (13.4%), 0-0 (13.1%), 0-1 (11.8%) and 2-0 (8.4%).

Will both teams score in Croatia vs Ghana?

The probability that both Croatia and Ghana score is 40%. Croatia have a 41% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Ghana 32%.

How many goals should we expect in Croatia vs Ghana?

The model expects 2.03 goals (1.13 for Croatia, 0.90 for Ghana). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 60%, over 2.5 goals 33%, over 3.5 goals 15%.

When and where is Croatia vs Ghana played?

Saturday, June 27, 2026 at 22:00 (UK time), FIFA World Cup. Venue: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia.

What form are Croatia and Ghana in?

Croatia: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 10 conceded). Ghana: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 5 conceded).

What was the Croatia vs Ghana result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Croatia 2-1 Ghana. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Croatia was the model's favourite outcome (38%). The final score ranked 6th among the most likely scorelines (7.5%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (40%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (33%): missed.

How is the Croatia vs Ghana prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.13 for Croatia, 0.90 for Ghana) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained