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FIFA World CupFIFA World Cup· Kick-off : Saturday, June 27, 2026, 01:00 (UK time)

Uruguay vs Spain: 0-1 result and AI prediction review

UruguayUruguay0 – 1SpainSpain

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-2

Final score: Uruguay 0-1 Spain. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Spain at 40%. The model considered this score unlikely (3.4%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (74%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (82%): missed.

Match analysis

Uruguay and Spain met on Saturday, June 27, 2026, a FIFA World Cup fixture. Venue: Estadio Akron, Zapopan. Before kick-off, our model gave Uruguay a 28% chance of winning, the draw 32% and Spain 40%. On the correct score, 1-2 comes out on top (7.6%), followed by 1-3 (7.4%) and 2-2 (5.8%).

Uruguay have not won any of their last 4 matches (4 draws, 0 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 4. Spain are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (2 wins, 3 draws), scoring 8 and conceding 2. Spain therefore arrive in far better shape than Uruguay. On average Uruguay score 1.00 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Spain score 1.60 and concede 0.40. In the table, Uruguay sit 2nd with 2 points from 2 games, Spain 1st with 4 points from 2. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Uruguay have averaged 2.02 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.20 for Spain.

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Uruguay, 1 for Spain and 0 draws. Uruguay out or doubtful: G. de Arrascaeta and R. Araújo. In double chance terms, "Uruguay or draw" stands at 60%, "Spain or draw" at 72% and "no draw" at 68%.

In short : Spain leads Group H with 4 points from 2 matches and a +4 goal difference, while Uruguay sits second with 2 points and a 0 goal difference despite averaging 2.02 xG per game. Spain's superior form (1 win, 1 draw) and head-to-head advantage position them as favorites, though Uruguay's recent consistency in draws suggests a competitive encounter.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

28%
Uruguay (Win)
32%
Draw
40%
Spain (Win)

Double chance

60%
Uruguay or draw
72%
Spain or draw
68%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Uruguay – Spain. 1-2 is the single most likely scoreline (7.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 32% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Uruguay 1-2 Spain7.6%
Uruguay 1-3 Spain7.4%
Uruguay 2-2 Spain5.8%
Uruguay 2-3 Spain5.7%
Uruguay 1-4 Spain5.4%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 1.52 expected goals for Uruguay and 2.92 for Spain, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 82% and "both teams to score" at 74%. Goals look likely in this one. Uruguay keep a clean sheet in 5% of scenarios, Spain in 22%.

Probability
Uruguay expected goals1.52
Spain expected goals2.92
Both teams to score74%
Over 1.5 goals94%
Over 2.5 goals82%
Over 3.5 goals65%
Uruguay clean sheet5%
Spain clean sheet22%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Uruguay

DateOpponentScore
Jun 21, 2026Cape Verde · FIFA World Cup2-2D
Jun 15, 2026Saudi Arabia · FIFA World Cup1-1D
Mar 31, 2026Algeria · International Friendlies0-0D
Mar 27, 2026England · International Friendlies1-1D

Spain

DateOpponentScore
Jun 21, 2026Saudi Arabia · FIFA World Cup4-0W
Jun 15, 2026Cape Verde · FIFA World Cup0-0D
Jun 9, 2026Peru · International Friendlies3-1W
Jun 4, 2026Iraq · International Friendlies1-1D
Mar 31, 2026Egypt · International Friendlies0-0D

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Uruguay222
Spain142

Head-to-head

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Uruguay, 1 for Spain and 0 draws.

Out and doubtful

Uruguay

  • G. de Arrascaeta (out)
  • R. Araújo (out)

Spain

No absences reported.

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Uruguay vs Spain prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Uruguay a 28% chance of winning, the draw 32% and Spain 40%. Spain are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 0-1.

What is the most likely correct score for Uruguay vs Spain?

1-2 (7.6%), followed by 1-3 (7.4%), 2-2 (5.8%), 2-3 (5.7%) and 1-4 (5.4%).

Will both teams score in Uruguay vs Spain?

The probability that both Uruguay and Spain score is 74%. Uruguay have a 5% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Spain 22%.

How many goals should we expect in Uruguay vs Spain?

The model expects 4.44 goals (1.52 for Uruguay, 2.92 for Spain). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 94%, over 2.5 goals 82%, over 3.5 goals 65%.

When and where is Uruguay vs Spain played?

Saturday, June 27, 2026 at 01:00 (UK time), FIFA World Cup. Venue: Estadio Akron, Zapopan.

What form are Uruguay and Spain in?

Uruguay: 0 wins, 4 draws and 0 defeats in their last 4 matches (4 scored, 4 conceded). Spain: 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 2 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Uruguay and Spain?

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Uruguay, 1 for Spain and 0 draws.

What was the Uruguay vs Spain result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Uruguay 0-1 Spain. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Spain at 40%. The model considered this score unlikely (3.4%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (74%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (82%): missed.

How is the Uruguay vs Spain prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.52 for Uruguay, 2.92 for Spain) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

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Key terms explained