FIFA World Cup· Kick-off : Friday, June 26, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
Senegal vs Iraq: 5-0 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Senegal 5-0 Iraq. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Senegal at 52%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.4%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (34%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (30%): missed.
Match analysis
Senegal and Iraq met on Friday, June 26, 2026, a FIFA World Cup fixture. Venue: BMO Field, Toronto. Before kick-off, our model gave Senegal a 52% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Iraq 20%. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (18.8%), followed by 0-0 (14.8%) and 1-1 (12.0%).
Senegal have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 8 and conceding 10. Iraq have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 3 and conceding 10. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Senegal score 1.60 and concede 2.00 goals per game; Iraq score 0.60 and concede 2.00. In the table, Senegal sit 12th with 0 points from 2 games, Iraq 4th with 0 points from 2. 8 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Senegal have averaged 1.13 xG (expected goals) per match, against 0.72 for Iraq.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Senegal and Iraq: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. Senegal out or doubtful: É. Mendy. In double chance terms, "Senegal or draw" stands at 80%, "Iraq or draw" at 48% and "no draw" at 72%.
In short : Senegal enters this World Cup fixture with a superior expected goals average of 1.13 compared to Iraq's 0.72, despite both teams sitting winless in the tournament. With Senegal ranked 12th globally versus Iraq's 4th ranking, the home side's attacking output gives them the edge in this must-win encounter.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Senegal – Iraq. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (18.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 67% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Senegal 1-0 Iraq | 18.8% |
| Senegal 0-0 Iraq | 14.8% |
| Senegal 1-1 Iraq | 12.0% |
| Senegal 2-0 Iraq | 11.9% |
| Senegal 0-1 Iraq | 9.5% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.27 expected goals for Senegal and 0.64 for Iraq, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 30% and "both teams to score" at 34%. Few goals are expected here. Senegal keep a clean sheet in 53% of scenarios, Iraq in 28%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Senegal expected goals | 1.27 |
| Iraq expected goals | 0.64 |
| Both teams to score | 34% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 57% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 13% |
| Senegal clean sheet | 53% |
| Iraq clean sheet | 28% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Senegal
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 23, 2026 | Norway · FIFA World Cup | 2-3 | L |
| Jun 16, 2026 | France · FIFA World Cup | 1-3 | L |
| Jun 10, 2026 | Saudi Arabia · International Friendlies | 0-0 | D |
| May 31, 2026 | United States · International Friendlies | 2-3 | L |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Gambia · International Friendlies | 3-1 | W |
Iraq
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 22, 2026 | France · FIFA World Cup | 0-3 | L |
| Jun 16, 2026 | Norway · FIFA World Cup | 1-4 | L |
| Jun 10, 2026 | Venezuela · International Friendlies | 0-2 | L |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Spain · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| May 29, 2026 | Andorra · International Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Senegal | 12 | 0 | 2 |
| Iraq | 4 | 0 | 2 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Senegal and Iraq: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Senegal
- É. Mendy (out)
Iraq
No absences reported.
Other matches in this competition
- Ecuador 2-1 GermanyJun 25, 2026
- Tunisia 1-3 NetherlandsJun 26, 2026
- Japan 1-1 SwedenJun 26, 2026
- Türkiye 3-2 United StatesJun 26, 2026
- Paraguay 0-0 AustraliaJun 26, 2026
- Norway 1-4 FranceJun 26, 2026
- Uruguay 0-1 SpainJun 27, 2026
- Cape Verde 0-0 Saudi ArabiaJun 27, 2026
- Egypt 1-1 IranJun 27, 2026
- New Zealand 1-5 BelgiumJun 27, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Senegal vs Iraq prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Senegal a 52% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Iraq 20%. Senegal are therefore favourites. Final score: 5-0.
What is the most likely correct score for Senegal vs Iraq?
1-0 (18.8%), followed by 0-0 (14.8%), 1-1 (12.0%), 2-0 (11.9%) and 0-1 (9.5%).
Will both teams score in Senegal vs Iraq?
The probability that both Senegal and Iraq score is 34%. Senegal have a 53% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Iraq 28%.
How many goals should we expect in Senegal vs Iraq?
The model expects 1.91 goals (1.27 for Senegal, 0.64 for Iraq). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 57%, over 2.5 goals 30%, over 3.5 goals 13%.
When and where is Senegal vs Iraq played?
Friday, June 26, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), FIFA World Cup. Venue: BMO Field, Toronto.
What form are Senegal and Iraq in?
Senegal: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 10 conceded). Iraq: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 10 conceded).
What was the Senegal vs Iraq result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Senegal 5-0 Iraq. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Senegal at 52%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.4%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (34%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (30%): missed.
How is the Senegal vs Iraq prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.27 for Senegal, 0.64 for Iraq) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Senegal predictions
- All Iraq predictions
- FIFA World Cup predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology