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FIFA World CupFIFA World Cup· Kick-off : Friday, June 26, 2026, 00:00 (UK time)

Japan vs Sweden: 1-1 result and AI prediction review

JapanJapan1 – 1SwedenSweden

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-0

Final score: Japan 1-1 Sweden. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Japan (52%), while a draw was rated at only 26%. The final score ranked 3rd among the most likely scorelines (10.5%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (48%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (51%): missed.

Match analysis

Japan vs Sweden was played on Friday, June 26, 2026 (FIFA World Cup). Venue: AT&T Stadium, Arlington. Before kick-off, our model gave Japan a 52% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Sweden 22%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 (12.4%), ahead of 2-0 (11.5%) and 1-1 (10.5%).

Japan are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw), scoring 9 and conceding 2. Sweden have won just one of their last 4 matches (1 draw, 2 defeats), scoring 9 and conceding 11. Recent momentum is clearly with Japan. On average Japan score 1.80 and concede 0.40 goals per game; Sweden score 2.25 and concede 2.75. In the table, Japan sit 2nd with 4 points from 2 games, Sweden 2nd with 3 points from 2. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Japan have averaged 1.36 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.17 for Sweden.

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Japan and Sweden: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. Japan out or doubtful: T. Kubo and S. Machino. In double chance terms, "Japan or draw" stands at 78%, "Sweden or draw" at 48% and "no draw" at 74%.

In short : Japan enters with superior form (4 points from 2 matches, +4 goal difference) and higher expected goals (1.36 xG), while Sweden sits on 3 points with a neutral goal difference and lower xG output (1.17). Both teams are ranked 2nd in their group, but Japan's unbeaten record and attacking efficiency give them the edge in this World Cup encounter.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

52%
Japan (Win)
26%
Draw
22%
Sweden (Win)

Double chance

78%
Japan or draw
48%
Sweden or draw
74%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Japan – Sweden. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (12.4%); the 5 scores below add up to 51% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Japan 1-0 Sweden12.4%
Japan 2-0 Sweden11.5%
Japan 1-1 Sweden10.5%
Japan 2-1 Sweden9.8%
Japan 3-0 Sweden7.1%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 2.71 goals in total (1.86 for Japan, 0.85 for Sweden): over 2.5 goals has a 51% probability and both teams to score 48%. Japan keep a clean sheet in 43% of scenarios, Sweden in 16%.

Probability
Japan expected goals1.86
Sweden expected goals0.85
Both teams to score48%
Over 1.5 goals75%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Over 3.5 goals29%
Japan clean sheet43%
Sweden clean sheet16%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Japan

DateOpponentScore
Jun 21, 2026Tunisia · FIFA World Cup4-0W
Jun 14, 2026Netherlands · FIFA World Cup2-2D
May 31, 2026Iceland · International Friendlies1-0W
Mar 31, 2026England · International Friendlies1-0W
Mar 28, 2026Scotland · International Friendlies1-0W

Sweden

DateOpponentScore
Jun 20, 2026Netherlands · FIFA World Cup1-5L
Jun 15, 2026Tunisia · FIFA World Cup5-1W
Jun 4, 2026Greece · International Friendlies2-2D
Jun 1, 2026Norway · International Friendlies1-3L

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Japan242
Sweden232

Head-to-head

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Japan and Sweden: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.

Out and doubtful

Japan

  • T. Kubo (out)
  • S. Machino (out)

Sweden

No absences reported.

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Japan vs Sweden prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Japan a 52% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Sweden 22%. Japan are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-1.

What is the most likely correct score for Japan vs Sweden?

1-0 (12.4%), followed by 2-0 (11.5%), 1-1 (10.5%), 2-1 (9.8%) and 3-0 (7.1%).

Will both teams score in Japan vs Sweden?

The probability that both Japan and Sweden score is 48%. Japan have a 43% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Sweden 16%.

How many goals should we expect in Japan vs Sweden?

The model expects 2.71 goals (1.86 for Japan, 0.85 for Sweden). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 75%, over 2.5 goals 51%, over 3.5 goals 29%.

When and where is Japan vs Sweden played?

Friday, June 26, 2026 at 00:00 (UK time), FIFA World Cup. Venue: AT&T Stadium, Arlington.

What form are Japan and Sweden in?

Japan: 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 2 conceded). Sweden: 1 win, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 4 matches (9 scored, 11 conceded).

What was the Japan vs Sweden result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Japan 1-1 Sweden. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Japan (52%), while a draw was rated at only 26%. The final score ranked 3rd among the most likely scorelines (10.5%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (48%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (51%): missed.

How is the Japan vs Sweden prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.86 for Japan, 0.85 for Sweden) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained