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FIFA World CupFIFA World Cup· Kick-off : Thursday, June 25, 2026, 02:00 (UK time)

South Africa vs South Korea: 1-0 result and AI prediction review

South AfricaSouth Africa1 – 0South KoreaSouth Korea

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 0-2

Final score: South Africa 1-0 South Korea. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for South Korea (48%), while victory for South Africa was rated at only 28%. The model considered this score unlikely (2.0%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (33%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (59%): missed.

Match analysis

South Africa vs South Korea was played on Thursday, June 25, 2026 (FIFA World Cup). Venue: Estadio BBVA, Monterrey. Before kick-off, our model gave South Africa a 28% chance of winning, the draw 24% and South Korea 48%. The most likely correct score is 0-2 (16.1%), ahead of 0-3 (14.1%) and 0-1 (12.2%).

South Africa have not won any of their last 5 matches (3 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 3 and conceding 6. Over their last 5 matches, South Korea have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 8 and conceding 3. Recent momentum is clearly with South Korea. On average South Africa score 0.60 and concede 1.20 goals per game; South Korea score 1.60 and concede 0.60. In the table, South Africa sit 4th with 1 points from 2 games, South Korea 2nd with 3 points from 2. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, South Africa have averaged 0.72 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.60 for South Korea.

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between South Africa and South Korea: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. South Africa out or doubtful: T. Mokoena. In double chance terms, "South Africa or draw" stands at 52%, "South Korea or draw" at 72% and "no draw" at 76%.

In short : South Korea arrives with superior form (1 win in last 5) and a significant expected goals advantage (1.6 vs 0.72 xG), currently ranked 2nd in the group with 3 points. South Africa sits bottom with just 1 point from 2 matches and has conceded a -2 goal differential despite generating minimal attacking threat.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

28%
South Africa (Win)
24%
Draw
48%
South Korea (Win)

Double chance

52%
South Africa or draw
72%
South Korea or draw
76%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as South Africa – South Korea. 0-2 is the single most likely scoreline (16.1%); the 5 scores below add up to 59% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
South Africa 0-2 South Korea16.1%
South Africa 0-3 South Korea14.1%
South Africa 0-1 South Korea12.2%
South Africa 0-4 South Korea9.3%
South Africa 1-2 South Korea7.1%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 3.07 goals in total (0.44 for South Africa, 2.63 for South Korea): over 2.5 goals has a 59% probability and both teams to score 33%. Everything points to an open game. South Africa keep a clean sheet in 7% of scenarios, South Korea in 64%.

Probability
South Africa expected goals0.44
South Korea expected goals2.63
Both teams to score33%
Over 1.5 goals81%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Over 3.5 goals37%
South Africa clean sheet7%
South Korea clean sheet64%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

South Africa

DateOpponentScore
Jun 18, 2026Czechia · FIFA World Cup1-1D
Jun 11, 2026Mexico · FIFA World Cup0-2L
Jun 6, 2026Jamaica · International Friendlies1-1D
May 29, 2026Nicaragua · International Friendlies0-0D
Mar 31, 2026Panama · International Friendlies1-2L

South Korea

DateOpponentScore
Jun 19, 2026Mexico · FIFA World Cup0-1L
Jun 12, 2026Czechia · FIFA World Cup2-1W
Jun 4, 2026El Salvador · International Friendlies1-0W
May 31, 2026Trinidad & Tobago · International Friendlies5-0W
Mar 31, 2026Austria · International Friendlies0-1L

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
South Africa412
South Korea232

Head-to-head

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between South Africa and South Korea: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.

Out and doubtful

South Africa

  • T. Mokoena (out)

South Korea

No absences reported.

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the South Africa vs South Korea prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave South Africa a 28% chance of winning, the draw 24% and South Korea 48%. South Korea are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-0.

What is the most likely correct score for South Africa vs South Korea?

0-2 (16.1%), followed by 0-3 (14.1%), 0-1 (12.2%), 0-4 (9.3%) and 1-2 (7.1%).

Will both teams score in South Africa vs South Korea?

The probability that both South Africa and South Korea score is 33%. South Africa have a 7% chance of keeping a clean sheet, South Korea 64%.

How many goals should we expect in South Africa vs South Korea?

The model expects 3.07 goals (0.44 for South Africa, 2.63 for South Korea). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 81%, over 2.5 goals 59%, over 3.5 goals 37%.

When and where is South Africa vs South Korea played?

Thursday, June 25, 2026 at 02:00 (UK time), FIFA World Cup. Venue: Estadio BBVA, Monterrey.

What form are South Africa and South Korea in?

South Africa: 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 6 conceded). South Korea: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 3 conceded).

What was the South Africa vs South Korea result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: South Africa 1-0 South Korea. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for South Korea (48%), while victory for South Africa was rated at only 28%. The model considered this score unlikely (2.0%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (33%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (59%): missed.

How is the South Africa vs South Korea prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.44 for South Africa, 2.63 for South Korea) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

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Key terms explained