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FIFA World CupFIFA World Cup· Kick-off : Friday, June 26, 2026, 00:00 (UK time)

Tunisia vs Netherlands: 1-3 result and AI prediction review

TunisiaTunisia1 – 3NetherlandsNetherlands

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 0-2

Final score: Tunisia 1-3 Netherlands. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Netherlands at 77%. The final score ranked 7th among the most likely scorelines (4.4%), behind 0-2. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (21%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (62%): correct.

Match analysis

Tunisia and Netherlands met on Friday, June 26, 2026, a FIFA World Cup fixture. Venue: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City. Before kick-off, our model gave Tunisia a 8% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Netherlands 77%. On the correct score, 0-2 comes out on top (17.9%), followed by 0-3 (17.4%) and 0-4 (12.8%).

Tunisia have not won any of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 4 defeats), scoring 1 and conceding 15. Over their last 5 matches, Netherlands have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 10 and conceding 6. Netherlands therefore arrive in far better shape than Tunisia. On average Tunisia score 0.20 and concede 3.00 goals per game; Netherlands score 2.00 and concede 1.20. In the table, Tunisia sit 4th with 0 points from 2 games, Netherlands 1st with 4 points from 2. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Tunisia have averaged 0.17 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.69 for Netherlands.

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Tunisia and Netherlands: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Tunisia or draw" stands at 23%, "Netherlands or draw" at 92% and "no draw" at 85%.

In short : Netherlands arrive unbeaten with 1.69 average xG and a +4 goal difference, while Tunisia have lost both matches with just 0.17 xG and a -8 goal difference. The Dutch's superior attacking output and defensive record make them heavy favorites in this World Cup encounter.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

8%
Tunisia (Win)
15%
Draw
77%
Netherlands (Win)

Double chance

23%
Tunisia or draw
92%
Netherlands or draw
85%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Tunisia – Netherlands. 0-2 is the single most likely scoreline (17.9%); the 5 scores below add up to 68% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Tunisia 0-2 Netherlands17.9%
Tunisia 0-3 Netherlands17.4%
Tunisia 0-4 Netherlands12.8%
Tunisia 0-1 Netherlands12.2%
Tunisia 0-5 Netherlands7.5%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 0.25 expected goals for Tunisia and 2.93 for Netherlands, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 62% and "both teams to score" at 21%. Goals look likely in this one. Tunisia keep a clean sheet in 5% of scenarios, Netherlands in 78%.

Probability
Tunisia expected goals0.25
Netherlands expected goals2.93
Both teams to score21%
Over 1.5 goals83%
Over 2.5 goals62%
Over 3.5 goals39%
Tunisia clean sheet5%
Netherlands clean sheet78%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Tunisia

DateOpponentScore
Jun 21, 2026Japan · FIFA World Cup0-4L
Jun 15, 2026Sweden · FIFA World Cup1-5L
Jun 6, 2026Belgium · International Friendlies0-5L
Jun 1, 2026Austria · International Friendlies0-1L
Apr 1, 2026Canada · International Friendlies0-0D

Netherlands

DateOpponentScore
Jun 20, 2026Sweden · FIFA World Cup5-1W
Jun 14, 2026Japan · FIFA World Cup2-2D
Jun 8, 2026Uzbekistan · International Friendlies2-1W
Jun 3, 2026Algeria · International Friendlies0-1L
Mar 31, 2026Ecuador · International Friendlies1-1D

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Tunisia402
Netherlands142

Head-to-head

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Tunisia and Netherlands: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.

Out and doubtful

Tunisia

No absences reported.

Netherlands

No absences reported.

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Tunisia vs Netherlands prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Tunisia a 8% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Netherlands 77%. Netherlands are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-3.

What is the most likely correct score for Tunisia vs Netherlands?

0-2 (17.9%), followed by 0-3 (17.4%), 0-4 (12.8%), 0-1 (12.2%) and 0-5 (7.5%).

Will both teams score in Tunisia vs Netherlands?

The probability that both Tunisia and Netherlands score is 21%. Tunisia have a 5% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Netherlands 78%.

How many goals should we expect in Tunisia vs Netherlands?

The model expects 3.18 goals (0.25 for Tunisia, 2.93 for Netherlands). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 83%, over 2.5 goals 62%, over 3.5 goals 39%.

When and where is Tunisia vs Netherlands played?

Friday, June 26, 2026 at 00:00 (UK time), FIFA World Cup. Venue: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City.

What form are Tunisia and Netherlands in?

Tunisia: 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (1 scored, 15 conceded). Netherlands: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 6 conceded).

What was the Tunisia vs Netherlands result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Tunisia 1-3 Netherlands. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Netherlands at 77%. The final score ranked 7th among the most likely scorelines (4.4%), behind 0-2. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (21%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (62%): correct.

How is the Tunisia vs Netherlands prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.25 for Tunisia, 2.93 for Netherlands) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained