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FIFA World CupFIFA World Cup· Kick-off : Friday, June 26, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)

Norway vs France: 1-4 result and AI prediction review

NorwayNorway1 – 4FranceFrance

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-1

Final score: Norway 1-4 France. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for France was the model's favourite outcome (48%). The model considered this score unlikely (2.2%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (58%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (56%): correct.

Match analysis

Norway vs France was played on Friday, June 26, 2026 (FIFA World Cup). Venue: Gillette Stadium, Boston. Before kick-off, our model gave Norway a 28% chance of winning, the draw 24% and France 48%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (11.3%), ahead of 1-2 (9.5%) and 0-1 (9.2%).

Norway are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 11 and conceding 5. Over their last 5 matches, France have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 13 and conceding 5. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Norway score 2.20 and concede 1.00 goals per game; France score 2.60 and concede 1.00. In the table, Norway sit 2nd with 6 points from 2 games, France 1st with 6 points from 2. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Norway have averaged 2.36 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.23 for France.

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Norway and France: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Norway or draw" stands at 52%, "France or draw" at 72% and "no draw" at 76%.

In short : France holds the top position in the standings with a +5 goal difference and a recent win-heavy form, while Norway sits second with +4 goal difference and two consecutive wins. France's superior xG average (2.23 vs 2.36) combined with their league leadership gives them the edge in this World Cup encounter.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

28%
Norway (Win)
24%
Draw
48%
France (Win)

Double chance

52%
Norway or draw
72%
France or draw
76%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Norway – France. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (11.3%); the 5 scores below add up to 45% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Norway 1-1 France11.3%
Norway 1-2 France9.5%
Norway 0-1 France9.2%
Norway 0-2 France7.7%
Norway 2-1 France6.9%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 2.91 goals in total (1.23 for Norway, 1.68 for France): over 2.5 goals has a 56% probability and both teams to score 58%. Norway keep a clean sheet in 19% of scenarios, France in 29%.

Probability
Norway expected goals1.23
France expected goals1.68
Both teams to score58%
Over 1.5 goals79%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Over 3.5 goals33%
Norway clean sheet19%
France clean sheet29%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Norway

DateOpponentScore
Jun 23, 2026Senegal · FIFA World Cup3-2W
Jun 16, 2026Iraq · FIFA World Cup4-1W
Jun 7, 2026Morocco · International Friendlies1-1D
Jun 1, 2026Sweden · International Friendlies3-1W
Mar 31, 2026Switzerland · International Friendlies0-0D

France

DateOpponentScore
Jun 22, 2026Iraq · FIFA World Cup3-0W
Jun 16, 2026Senegal · FIFA World Cup3-1W
Jun 8, 2026Northern Ireland · International Friendlies3-1W
Jun 4, 2026Ivory Coast · International Friendlies1-2L
Mar 29, 2026Colombia · International Friendlies3-1W

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Norway262
France162

Head-to-head

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Norway and France: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.

Out and doubtful

Norway

No absences reported.

France

No absences reported.

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Norway vs France prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Norway a 28% chance of winning, the draw 24% and France 48%. France are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-4.

What is the most likely correct score for Norway vs France?

1-1 (11.3%), followed by 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (9.2%), 0-2 (7.7%) and 2-1 (6.9%).

Will both teams score in Norway vs France?

The probability that both Norway and France score is 58%. Norway have a 19% chance of keeping a clean sheet, France 29%.

How many goals should we expect in Norway vs France?

The model expects 2.91 goals (1.23 for Norway, 1.68 for France). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 79%, over 2.5 goals 56%, over 3.5 goals 33%.

When and where is Norway vs France played?

Friday, June 26, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), FIFA World Cup. Venue: Gillette Stadium, Boston.

What form are Norway and France in?

Norway: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (11 scored, 5 conceded). France: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (13 scored, 5 conceded).

What was the Norway vs France result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Norway 1-4 France. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for France was the model's favourite outcome (48%). The model considered this score unlikely (2.2%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (58%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (56%): correct.

How is the Norway vs France prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.23 for Norway, 1.68 for France) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained