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FIFA World CupFIFA World Cup· Kick-off : Thursday, June 25, 2026, 21:00 (UK time)

Ecuador vs Germany: 2-1 result and AI prediction review

EcuadorEcuador2 – 1GermanyGermany

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-3

Final score: Ecuador 2-1 Germany. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Germany (70%), while victory for Ecuador was rated at only 12%. The model considered this score unlikely (1.5%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (67%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (89%): correct.

Match analysis

Ecuador vs Germany was played on Thursday, June 25, 2026 (FIFA World Cup). Venue: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford. Before kick-off, our model gave Ecuador a 12% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Germany 70%. The most likely correct score is 1-3 (7.1%), ahead of 1-4 (7.1%) and 0-3 (6.2%).

Over their last 5 matches, Ecuador have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 6 and conceding 3. Germany are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (5 wins, 0 draws), scoring 17 and conceding 4. Recent momentum is clearly with Germany. On average Ecuador score 1.20 and concede 0.60 goals per game; Germany score 3.40 and concede 0.80. In the table, Ecuador sit 11th with 1 points from 2 games, Germany 1st with 6 points from 2. 10 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Ecuador have averaged 1.92 xG (expected goals) per match, against 3.05 for Germany.

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Ecuador and Germany: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Ecuador or draw" stands at 30%, "Germany or draw" at 88% and "no draw" at 82%.

In short : Germany arrives unbeaten with 6 points and a +7 goal differential, while Ecuador sits bottom of the group with just 1 point from 2 matches. The visitors' superior xG average of 3.05 compared to Ecuador's 1.92 reflects a significant quality gap in this World Cup encounter.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

12%
Ecuador (Win)
18%
Draw
70%
Germany (Win)

Double chance

30%
Ecuador or draw
88%
Germany or draw
82%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Ecuador – Germany. 1-3 is the single most likely scoreline (7.1%); the 5 scores below add up to 32% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Ecuador 1-3 Germany7.1%
Ecuador 1-4 Germany7.1%
Ecuador 0-3 Germany6.2%
Ecuador 0-4 Germany6.2%
Ecuador 1-5 Germany5.7%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 5.15 goals in total (1.15 for Ecuador, 4.00 for Germany): over 2.5 goals has a 89% probability and both teams to score 67%. Everything points to an open game. Ecuador keep a clean sheet in 2% of scenarios, Germany in 32%.

Probability
Ecuador expected goals1.15
Germany expected goals4.00
Both teams to score67%
Over 1.5 goals96%
Over 2.5 goals89%
Over 3.5 goals76%
Ecuador clean sheet2%
Germany clean sheet32%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Ecuador

DateOpponentScore
Jun 21, 2026Curaçao · FIFA World Cup0-0D
Jun 15, 2026Ivory Coast · FIFA World Cup0-1L
Jun 7, 2026Guatemala · International Friendlies3-0W
May 31, 2026Saudi Arabia · International Friendlies2-1W
Mar 31, 2026Netherlands · International Friendlies1-1D

Germany

DateOpponentScore
Jun 20, 2026Ivory Coast · FIFA World Cup2-1W
Jun 14, 2026Curaçao · FIFA World Cup7-1W
Jun 6, 2026United States · International Friendlies2-1W
May 31, 2026Finland · International Friendlies4-0W
Mar 30, 2026Ghana · International Friendlies2-1W

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Ecuador1112
Germany162

Head-to-head

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Ecuador and Germany: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.

Out and doubtful

Ecuador

No absences reported.

Germany

No absences reported.

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Ecuador vs Germany prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Ecuador a 12% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Germany 70%. Germany are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-1.

What is the most likely correct score for Ecuador vs Germany?

1-3 (7.1%), followed by 1-4 (7.1%), 0-3 (6.2%), 0-4 (6.2%) and 1-5 (5.7%).

Will both teams score in Ecuador vs Germany?

The probability that both Ecuador and Germany score is 67%. Ecuador have a 2% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Germany 32%.

How many goals should we expect in Ecuador vs Germany?

The model expects 5.15 goals (1.15 for Ecuador, 4.00 for Germany). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 96%, over 2.5 goals 89%, over 3.5 goals 76%.

When and where is Ecuador vs Germany played?

Thursday, June 25, 2026 at 21:00 (UK time), FIFA World Cup. Venue: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford.

What form are Ecuador and Germany in?

Ecuador: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 3 conceded). Germany: 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (17 scored, 4 conceded).

What was the Ecuador vs Germany result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Ecuador 2-1 Germany. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Germany (70%), while victory for Ecuador was rated at only 12%. The model considered this score unlikely (1.5%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (67%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (89%): correct.

How is the Ecuador vs Germany prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.15 for Ecuador, 4.00 for Germany) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

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