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FIFA World CupFIFA World Cup· Kick-off : Friday, June 26, 2026, 03:00 (UK time)

Türkiye vs United States: 3-2 result and AI prediction review

TürkiyeTürkiye3 – 2United StatesUnited States

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-1

Final score: Türkiye 3-2 United States. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for United States (50%), while victory for Türkiye was rated at only 28%. The model considered this score unlikely (2.1%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (58%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (60%): correct.

Match analysis

Türkiye and United States met on Friday, June 26, 2026, a FIFA World Cup fixture. Venue: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood. Before kick-off, our model gave Türkiye a 28% chance of winning, the draw 22% and United States 50%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (10.1%), followed by 1-2 (9.9%) and 0-1 (8.9%).

Over their last 4 matches, Türkiye have 2 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 6 and conceding 4. Over their last 5 matches, United States have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 10 and conceding 7. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Türkiye score 1.50 and concede 1.00 goals per game; United States score 2.00 and concede 1.40. In the table, Türkiye sit 4th with 0 points from 2 games, United States 1st with 6 points from 2. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Türkiye have averaged 1.77 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.25 for United States.

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Türkiye, 0 for United States and 0 draws. United States: C. Pulišić. In double chance terms, "Türkiye or draw" stands at 50%, "United States or draw" at 72% and "no draw" at 78%.

In short : USA arrives undefeated with 2 wins from 2 matches and a +5 goal difference, while Türkiye faces elimination after two consecutive losses and a -3 goal differential. Despite Türkiye's superior expected goals average (1.77 vs 1.25), USA's perfect record and dominant standings position make them clear favorites in this World Cup encounter.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

28%
Türkiye (Win)
22%
Draw
50%
United States (Win)

Double chance

50%
Türkiye or draw
72%
United States or draw
78%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Türkiye – United States. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (10.1%); the 5 scores below add up to 44% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Türkiye 1-1 United States10.1%
Türkiye 1-2 United States9.9%
Türkiye 0-1 United States8.9%
Türkiye 0-2 United States8.7%
Türkiye 1-3 United States6.5%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 1.13 expected goals for Türkiye and 1.96 for United States, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 60% and "both teams to score" at 58%. Goals look likely in this one. Türkiye keep a clean sheet in 14% of scenarios, United States in 32%.

Probability
Türkiye expected goals1.13
United States expected goals1.96
Both teams to score58%
Over 1.5 goals81%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Over 3.5 goals37%
Türkiye clean sheet14%
United States clean sheet32%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Türkiye

DateOpponentScore
Jun 20, 2026Paraguay · FIFA World Cup0-1L
Jun 14, 2026Australia · FIFA World Cup0-2L
Jun 6, 2026Venezuela · International Friendlies2-1W
Jun 1, 2026North Macedonia · International Friendlies4-0W

United States

DateOpponentScore
Jun 19, 2026Australia · FIFA World Cup2-0W
Jun 13, 2026Paraguay · FIFA World Cup4-1W
Jun 6, 2026Germany · International Friendlies1-2L
May 31, 2026Senegal · International Friendlies3-2W
Apr 1, 2026Portugal · International Friendlies0-2L

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Türkiye402
United States162

Head-to-head

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Türkiye, 0 for United States and 0 draws.

Out and doubtful

Türkiye

No absences reported.

United States

  • C. Pulišić (out)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Türkiye vs United States prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Türkiye a 28% chance of winning, the draw 22% and United States 50%. United States are therefore favourites. Final score: 3-2.

What is the most likely correct score for Türkiye vs United States?

1-1 (10.1%), followed by 1-2 (9.9%), 0-1 (8.9%), 0-2 (8.7%) and 1-3 (6.5%).

Will both teams score in Türkiye vs United States?

The probability that both Türkiye and United States score is 58%. Türkiye have a 14% chance of keeping a clean sheet, United States 32%.

How many goals should we expect in Türkiye vs United States?

The model expects 3.09 goals (1.13 for Türkiye, 1.96 for United States). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 81%, over 2.5 goals 60%, over 3.5 goals 37%.

When and where is Türkiye vs United States played?

Friday, June 26, 2026 at 03:00 (UK time), FIFA World Cup. Venue: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood.

What form are Türkiye and United States in?

Türkiye: 2 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 4 matches (6 scored, 4 conceded). United States: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 7 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Türkiye and United States?

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Türkiye, 0 for United States and 0 draws.

What was the Türkiye vs United States result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Türkiye 3-2 United States. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for United States (50%), while victory for Türkiye was rated at only 28%. The model considered this score unlikely (2.1%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (58%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (60%): correct.

How is the Türkiye vs United States prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.13 for Türkiye, 1.96 for United States) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained