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FIFA World CupFIFA World Cup· Kick-off : Saturday, June 27, 2026, 04:00 (UK time)

New Zealand vs Belgium: 1-5 result and AI prediction review

New ZealandNew Zealand1 – 5BelgiumBelgium

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-1

Final score: New Zealand 1-5 Belgium. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Belgium at 40%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.4%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (48%): missed.

Match analysis

New Zealand and Belgium met on Saturday, June 27, 2026, a FIFA World Cup fixture. Venue: BC Place, Vancouver. Before kick-off, our model gave New Zealand a 28% chance of winning, the draw 32% and Belgium 40%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (12.5%), followed by 0-1 (10.8%) and 1-2 (8.9%).

New Zealand have not won any of their last 4 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 3 and conceding 10. Belgium are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (2 wins, 3 draws), scoring 9 and conceding 2. Belgium therefore arrive in far better shape than New Zealand. On average New Zealand score 0.75 and concede 2.50 goals per game; Belgium score 1.80 and concede 0.40. In the table, New Zealand sit 4th with 1 points from 2 games, Belgium 10th with 2 points from 2. 6 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, New Zealand have averaged 1.24 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.33 for Belgium.

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between New Zealand and Belgium: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. Belgium: Z. Debast, J. Doku and N. Ngoy. In double chance terms, "New Zealand or draw" stands at 60%, "Belgium or draw" at 72% and "no draw" at 68%.

In short : Belgium enters with an unbeaten record (2 draws) and a superior xG average of 1.33 compared to New Zealand's 1.24, while the hosts sit bottom of the group with just 1 point from 2 matches. New Zealand's recent form shows three losses in their last five outings, giving Belgium a clear advantage despite both teams' modest goal-scoring output so far.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

28%
New Zealand (Win)
32%
Draw
40%
Belgium (Win)

Double chance

60%
New Zealand or draw
72%
Belgium or draw
68%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as New Zealand – Belgium. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
New Zealand 1-1 Belgium12.5%
New Zealand 0-1 Belgium10.8%
New Zealand 1-2 Belgium8.9%
New Zealand 1-0 Belgium8.8%
New Zealand 0-2 Belgium7.6%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 1.16 expected goals for New Zealand and 1.42 for Belgium, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 48% and "both teams to score" at 52%. New Zealand keep a clean sheet in 24% of scenarios, Belgium in 31%.

Probability
New Zealand expected goals1.16
Belgium expected goals1.42
Both teams to score52%
Over 1.5 goals73%
Over 2.5 goals48%
Over 3.5 goals26%
New Zealand clean sheet24%
Belgium clean sheet31%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

New Zealand

DateOpponentScore
Jun 22, 2026Egypt · FIFA World Cup1-3L
Jun 16, 2026Iran · FIFA World Cup2-2D
Jun 6, 2026England · International Friendlies0-1L
Jun 3, 2026Haiti · International Friendlies0-4L

Belgium

DateOpponentScore
Jun 21, 2026Iran · FIFA World Cup0-0D
Jun 15, 2026Egypt · FIFA World Cup1-1D
Jun 6, 2026Tunisia · International Friendlies5-0W
Jun 2, 2026Croatia · International Friendlies2-0W
Apr 1, 2026Mexico · International Friendlies1-1D

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
New Zealand412
Belgium1022

Head-to-head

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between New Zealand and Belgium: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.

Out and doubtful

New Zealand

No absences reported.

Belgium

  • Z. Debast (out)
  • J. Doku (out)
  • N. Ngoy (out)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the New Zealand vs Belgium prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave New Zealand a 28% chance of winning, the draw 32% and Belgium 40%. Belgium are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 1-5.

What is the most likely correct score for New Zealand vs Belgium?

1-1 (12.5%), followed by 0-1 (10.8%), 1-2 (8.9%), 1-0 (8.8%) and 0-2 (7.6%).

Will both teams score in New Zealand vs Belgium?

The probability that both New Zealand and Belgium score is 52%. New Zealand have a 24% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Belgium 31%.

How many goals should we expect in New Zealand vs Belgium?

The model expects 2.58 goals (1.16 for New Zealand, 1.42 for Belgium). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 73%, over 2.5 goals 48%, over 3.5 goals 26%.

When and where is New Zealand vs Belgium played?

Saturday, June 27, 2026 at 04:00 (UK time), FIFA World Cup. Venue: BC Place, Vancouver.

What form are New Zealand and Belgium in?

New Zealand: 0 wins, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 4 matches (3 scored, 10 conceded). Belgium: 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 2 conceded).

What was the New Zealand vs Belgium result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: New Zealand 1-5 Belgium. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Belgium at 40%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.4%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (48%): missed.

How is the New Zealand vs Belgium prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.16 for New Zealand, 1.42 for Belgium) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

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