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FIFA World CupFIFA World Cup· Kick-off : Tuesday, June 30, 2026, 22:00 (UK time)

France vs Sweden: 3-0 result and AI prediction review

FranceFrance3 – 0SwedenSweden

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score foundMost likely score before kick-off : 3-0

Final score: France 3-0 Sweden. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for France at 68%. The exact score 3-0 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (12.0%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (44%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (72%): correct.

Match analysis

France and Sweden met on Tuesday, June 30, 2026, a FIFA World Cup fixture. Venue: MetLife Stadium, New-York. Before kick-off, our model gave France a 68% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Sweden 14%. On the correct score, 3-0 comes out on top (12.0%), followed by 2-0 (11.7%) and 4-0 (9.3%).

Over their last 5 matches, France have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 14 and conceding 5. Sweden have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 10 and conceding 12. France therefore arrive in far better shape than Sweden. On average France score 2.80 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Sweden score 2.00 and concede 2.40. In the table, France sit 1st with 9 points from 3 games, Sweden 2nd with 4 points from 3. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, France have averaged 1.92 xG (expected goals) per match, against 0.99 for Sweden.

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for France, 2 for Sweden and 0 draws. In double chance terms, "France or draw" stands at 86%, "Sweden or draw" at 32% and "no draw" at 82%.

In short : France arrives as group leaders with three consecutive wins and a dominant +8 goal difference, while Sweden sits second with mixed form and a 0.99 xG average. The hosts' superior xG output (1.92) and perfect record give them a commanding advantage in this World Cup clash.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

68%
France (Win)
18%
Draw
14%
Sweden (Win)

Double chance

86%
France or draw
32%
Sweden or draw
82%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as France – Sweden. 3-0 is the single most likely scoreline (12.0%); the 5 scores below add up to 48% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
France 3-0 Sweden12.0%
France 2-0 Sweden11.7%
France 4-0 Sweden9.3%
France 1-0 Sweden7.6%
France 3-1 Sweden7.5%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 3.08 expected goals for France and 0.62 for Sweden, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 72% and "both teams to score" at 44%. Goals look likely in this one. France keep a clean sheet in 54% of scenarios, Sweden in 5%.

Probability
France expected goals3.08
Sweden expected goals0.62
Both teams to score44%
Over 1.5 goals88%
Over 2.5 goals72%
Over 3.5 goals51%
France clean sheet54%
Sweden clean sheet5%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

France

DateOpponentScore
Jun 26, 2026Norway · FIFA World Cup4-1W
Jun 22, 2026Iraq · FIFA World Cup3-0W
Jun 16, 2026Senegal · FIFA World Cup3-1W
Jun 8, 2026Northern Ireland · International Friendlies3-1W
Jun 4, 2026Ivory Coast · International Friendlies1-2L

Sweden

DateOpponentScore
Jun 26, 2026Japan · FIFA World Cup1-1D
Jun 20, 2026Netherlands · FIFA World Cup1-5L
Jun 15, 2026Tunisia · FIFA World Cup5-1W
Jun 4, 2026Greece · International Friendlies2-2D
Jun 1, 2026Norway · International Friendlies1-3L

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
France193
Sweden243

Head-to-head

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for France, 2 for Sweden and 0 draws.

Out and doubtful

France

No absences reported.

Sweden

No absences reported.

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the France vs Sweden prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave France a 68% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Sweden 14%. France are therefore favourites. Final score: 3-0.

What is the most likely correct score for France vs Sweden?

3-0 (12.0%), followed by 2-0 (11.7%), 4-0 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.6%) and 3-1 (7.5%).

Will both teams score in France vs Sweden?

The probability that both France and Sweden score is 44%. France have a 54% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Sweden 5%.

How many goals should we expect in France vs Sweden?

The model expects 3.70 goals (3.08 for France, 0.62 for Sweden). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 88%, over 2.5 goals 72%, over 3.5 goals 51%.

When and where is France vs Sweden played?

Tuesday, June 30, 2026 at 22:00 (UK time), FIFA World Cup. Venue: MetLife Stadium, New-York.

What form are France and Sweden in?

France: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (14 scored, 5 conceded). Sweden: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 12 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between France and Sweden?

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for France, 2 for Sweden and 0 draws.

What was the France vs Sweden result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: France 3-0 Sweden. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for France at 68%. The exact score 3-0 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (12.0%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (44%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (72%): correct.

How is the France vs Sweden prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (3.08 for France, 0.62 for Sweden) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

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