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FIFA World CupFIFA World Cup· Kick-off : Friday, July 3, 2026, 00:00 (UK time)

Portugal vs Croatia: 2-1 result and AI prediction review

PortugalPortugal2 – 1CroatiaCroatia

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-0

Final score: Portugal 2-1 Croatia. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Portugal at 42%. The final score ranked 5th among the most likely scorelines (8.8%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (41%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (39%): missed.

Match analysis

Portugal and Croatia met on Friday, July 3, 2026, a FIFA World Cup fixture. Venue: BMO Field, Toronto. Before kick-off, our model gave Portugal a 42% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Croatia 30%. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (15.7%), followed by 1-1 (12.1%) and 2-0 (11.5%).

Portugal are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 10 and conceding 3. Over their last 5 matches, Croatia have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 7 and conceding 8. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Portugal score 2.00 and concede 0.60 goals per game; Croatia score 1.40 and concede 1.60. In the table, Portugal sit 2nd with 5 points from 3 games, Croatia 2nd with 6 points from 3. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Portugal have averaged 1.40 xG (expected goals) per match, against 0.80 for Croatia.

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Portugal, 1 for Croatia and 1 draw. In double chance terms, "Portugal or draw" stands at 70%, "Croatia or draw" at 58% and "no draw" at 72%.

In short : Portugal enters with superior expected goals (1.4 xG) and a +5 goal difference despite sitting second on points, while Croatia holds a one-point advantage with a balanced goal differential of zero. The head-to-head record favors Portugal with 3 wins to Croatia's 1, though the visitors have won 2 of their last 3 matches compared to Portugal's more inconsistent recent form.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

42%
Portugal (Win)
28%
Draw
30%
Croatia (Win)

Double chance

70%
Portugal or draw
58%
Croatia or draw
72%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Portugal – Croatia. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (15.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 59% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Portugal 1-0 Croatia15.7%
Portugal 1-1 Croatia12.1%
Portugal 2-0 Croatia11.5%
Portugal 0-0 Croatia10.8%
Portugal 2-1 Croatia8.8%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 1.46 expected goals for Portugal and 0.77 for Croatia, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 39% and "both teams to score" at 41%. Few goals are expected here. Portugal keep a clean sheet in 46% of scenarios, Croatia in 23%.

Probability
Portugal expected goals1.46
Croatia expected goals0.77
Both teams to score41%
Over 1.5 goals65%
Over 2.5 goals39%
Over 3.5 goals19%
Portugal clean sheet46%
Croatia clean sheet23%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Portugal

DateOpponentScore
Jun 28, 2026Colombia · FIFA World Cup0-0D
Jun 23, 2026Uzbekistan · FIFA World Cup5-0W
Jun 17, 2026DR Congo · FIFA World Cup1-1D
Jun 10, 2026Nigeria · International Friendlies2-1W
Jun 6, 2026Chile · International Friendlies2-1W

Croatia

DateOpponentScore
Jun 27, 2026Ghana · FIFA World Cup2-1W
Jun 24, 2026Panama · FIFA World Cup1-0W
Jun 17, 2026England · FIFA World Cup2-4L
Jun 7, 2026Slovenia · International Friendlies2-1W
Jun 2, 2026Belgium · International Friendlies0-2L

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Portugal253
Croatia263

Head-to-head

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Portugal, 1 for Croatia and 1 draw.

Out and doubtful

Portugal

No absences reported.

Croatia

No absences reported.

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Portugal vs Croatia prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Portugal a 42% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Croatia 30%. Portugal are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 2-1.

What is the most likely correct score for Portugal vs Croatia?

1-0 (15.7%), followed by 1-1 (12.1%), 2-0 (11.5%), 0-0 (10.8%) and 2-1 (8.8%).

Will both teams score in Portugal vs Croatia?

The probability that both Portugal and Croatia score is 41%. Portugal have a 46% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Croatia 23%.

How many goals should we expect in Portugal vs Croatia?

The model expects 2.23 goals (1.46 for Portugal, 0.77 for Croatia). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 65%, over 2.5 goals 39%, over 3.5 goals 19%.

When and where is Portugal vs Croatia played?

Friday, July 3, 2026 at 00:00 (UK time), FIFA World Cup. Venue: BMO Field, Toronto.

What form are Portugal and Croatia in?

Portugal: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 3 conceded). Croatia: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 8 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Portugal and Croatia?

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Portugal, 1 for Croatia and 1 draw.

What was the Portugal vs Croatia result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Portugal 2-1 Croatia. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Portugal at 42%. The final score ranked 5th among the most likely scorelines (8.8%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (41%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (39%): missed.

How is the Portugal vs Croatia prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.46 for Portugal, 0.77 for Croatia) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained