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FIFA World CupFIFA World Cup· Kick-off : Saturday, July 4, 2026, 02:30 (UK time)

Colombia vs Ghana: 1-0 result and AI prediction review

ColombiaColombia1 – 0GhanaGhana

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 2-0

Final score: Colombia 1-0 Ghana. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Colombia at 62%. The final score ranked 3rd among the most likely scorelines (10.2%), behind 2-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (37%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (65%): missed.

Match analysis

Colombia and Ghana met on Saturday, July 4, 2026, a FIFA World Cup fixture. Venue: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City. Before kick-off, our model gave Colombia a 62% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Ghana 16%. On the correct score, 2-0 comes out on top (14.4%), followed by 3-0 (13.7%) and 1-0 (10.2%).

Colombia are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw), scoring 9 and conceding 2. Ghana have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 3 and conceding 5. Colombia therefore arrive in far better shape than Ghana. On average Colombia score 1.80 and concede 0.40 goals per game; Ghana score 0.60 and concede 1.00. In the table, Colombia sit 1st with 7 points from 3 games, Ghana 3rd with 4 points from 3. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Colombia have averaged 1.43 xG (expected goals) per match, against 0.98 for Ghana.

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Colombia and Ghana: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Colombia or draw" stands at 84%, "Ghana or draw" at 38% and "no draw" at 78%.

In short : Colombia tops the group with 7 points from 3 matches and a +3 goal difference, while Ghana sits third with 4 points and a neutral goal differential. Colombia's superior form (4 wins in last 5) and higher expected goals average (1.43 vs 0.98) suggest a significant advantage in this World Cup encounter.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

62%
Colombia (Win)
22%
Draw
16%
Ghana (Win)

Double chance

84%
Colombia or draw
38%
Ghana or draw
78%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Colombia – Ghana. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (14.4%); the 5 scores below add up to 55% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Colombia 2-0 Ghana14.4%
Colombia 3-0 Ghana13.7%
Colombia 1-0 Ghana10.2%
Colombia 4-0 Ghana9.7%
Colombia 2-1 Ghana7.1%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 2.84 expected goals for Colombia and 0.49 for Ghana, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 65% and "both teams to score" at 37%. Goals look likely in this one. Colombia keep a clean sheet in 61% of scenarios, Ghana in 6%.

Probability
Colombia expected goals2.84
Ghana expected goals0.49
Both teams to score37%
Over 1.5 goals85%
Over 2.5 goals65%
Over 3.5 goals43%
Colombia clean sheet61%
Ghana clean sheet6%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Colombia

DateOpponentScore
Jun 28, 2026Portugal · FIFA World Cup0-0D
Jun 24, 2026DR Congo · FIFA World Cup1-0W
Jun 18, 2026Uzbekistan · FIFA World Cup3-1W
Jun 8, 2026Jordan · International Friendlies2-0W
Jun 2, 2026Costa Rica · International Friendlies3-1W

Ghana

DateOpponentScore
Jun 27, 2026Croatia · FIFA World Cup1-2L
Jun 23, 2026England · FIFA World Cup0-0D
Jun 18, 2026Panama · FIFA World Cup1-0W
Jun 2, 2026Wales · International Friendlies1-1D
May 23, 2026Mexico · International Friendlies0-2L

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Colombia173
Ghana343

Head-to-head

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Colombia and Ghana: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.

Out and doubtful

Colombia

No absences reported.

Ghana

No absences reported.

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Colombia vs Ghana prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Colombia a 62% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Ghana 16%. Colombia are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-0.

What is the most likely correct score for Colombia vs Ghana?

2-0 (14.4%), followed by 3-0 (13.7%), 1-0 (10.2%), 4-0 (9.7%) and 2-1 (7.1%).

Will both teams score in Colombia vs Ghana?

The probability that both Colombia and Ghana score is 37%. Colombia have a 61% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Ghana 6%.

How many goals should we expect in Colombia vs Ghana?

The model expects 3.33 goals (2.84 for Colombia, 0.49 for Ghana). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 85%, over 2.5 goals 65%, over 3.5 goals 43%.

When and where is Colombia vs Ghana played?

Saturday, July 4, 2026 at 02:30 (UK time), FIFA World Cup. Venue: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City.

What form are Colombia and Ghana in?

Colombia: 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 2 conceded). Ghana: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 5 conceded).

What was the Colombia vs Ghana result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Colombia 1-0 Ghana. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Colombia at 62%. The final score ranked 3rd among the most likely scorelines (10.2%), behind 2-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (37%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (65%): missed.

How is the Colombia vs Ghana prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.84 for Colombia, 0.49 for Ghana) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

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