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FIFA World CupFIFA World Cup· Kick-off : Monday, July 6, 2026, 02:00 (UK time)

Mexico vs England: 2-3 result and AI prediction review

MexicoMexico2 – 3EnglandEngland

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-1

Final score: Mexico 2-3 England. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for England was the model's favourite outcome (48%). The model considered this score unlikely (3.8%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (62%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (61%): correct.

Match analysis

Mexico vs England was played on Monday, July 6, 2026 (FIFA World Cup). Venue: Estadio Banorte, Mexico City. Before kick-off, our model gave Mexico a 28% chance of winning, the draw 24% and England 48%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (10.5%), ahead of 1-2 (9.3%) and 0-1 (7.6%).

Mexico are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (5 wins, 0 draws), scoring 13 and conceding 1. England are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw), scoring 11 and conceding 3. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Mexico score 2.60 and concede 0.20 goals per game; England score 2.20 and concede 0.60. In the table, Mexico sit 1st with 9 points from 3 games, England 1st with 7 points from 3. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Mexico have averaged 1.20 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.04 for England.

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Mexico and England: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. England: R. James and J. Quansah. In double chance terms, "Mexico or draw" stands at 52%, "England or draw" at 72% and "no draw" at 76%.

In short : England arrives with superior expected goals (2.04 vs 1.2) and a higher-quality attack, while Mexico boasts a perfect 3-0 record and +6 goal differential. This clash pits Mexico's flawless form against England's greater offensive threat in a World Cup encounter with no prior head-to-head history.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

28%
Mexico (Win)
24%
Draw
48%
England (Win)

Double chance

52%
Mexico or draw
72%
England or draw
76%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Mexico – England. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (10.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 41% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Mexico 1-1 England10.5%
Mexico 1-2 England9.3%
Mexico 0-1 England7.6%
Mexico 2-1 England7.2%
Mexico 0-2 England6.7%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 3.15 goals in total (1.38 for Mexico, 1.77 for England): over 2.5 goals has a 61% probability and both teams to score 62%. Everything points to an open game. Mexico keep a clean sheet in 17% of scenarios, England in 25%.

Probability
Mexico expected goals1.38
England expected goals1.77
Both teams to score62%
Over 1.5 goals82%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Over 3.5 goals39%
Mexico clean sheet17%
England clean sheet25%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Mexico

DateOpponentScore
Jul 1, 2026Ecuador · FIFA World Cup2-0W
Jun 25, 2026Czechia · FIFA World Cup3-0W
Jun 19, 2026South Korea · FIFA World Cup1-0W
Jun 11, 2026South Africa · FIFA World Cup2-0W
Jun 5, 2026Serbia · International Friendlies5-1W

England

DateOpponentScore
Jul 1, 2026DR Congo · FIFA World Cup2-1W
Jun 27, 2026Panama · FIFA World Cup2-0W
Jun 23, 2026Ghana · FIFA World Cup0-0D
Jun 17, 2026Croatia · FIFA World Cup4-2W
Jun 10, 2026Costa Rica · International Friendlies3-0W

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Mexico193
England173

Head-to-head

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Mexico and England: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.

Out and doubtful

Mexico

No absences reported.

England

  • R. James (out)
  • J. Quansah (out)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Mexico vs England prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Mexico a 28% chance of winning, the draw 24% and England 48%. England are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-3.

What is the most likely correct score for Mexico vs England?

1-1 (10.5%), followed by 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (7.6%), 2-1 (7.2%) and 0-2 (6.7%).

Will both teams score in Mexico vs England?

The probability that both Mexico and England score is 62%. Mexico have a 17% chance of keeping a clean sheet, England 25%.

How many goals should we expect in Mexico vs England?

The model expects 3.15 goals (1.38 for Mexico, 1.77 for England). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 82%, over 2.5 goals 61%, over 3.5 goals 39%.

When and where is Mexico vs England played?

Monday, July 6, 2026 at 02:00 (UK time), FIFA World Cup. Venue: Estadio Banorte, Mexico City.

What form are Mexico and England in?

Mexico: 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (13 scored, 1 conceded). England: 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (11 scored, 3 conceded).

What was the Mexico vs England result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Mexico 2-3 England. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for England was the model's favourite outcome (48%). The model considered this score unlikely (3.8%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (62%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (61%): correct.

How is the Mexico vs England prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.38 for Mexico, 1.77 for England) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained