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FIFA World CupFIFA World Cup· Kick-off : Monday, July 6, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)

Portugal vs Spain: 0-1 result and AI prediction review

PortugalPortugal0 – 1SpainSpain

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 0-0

Final score: Portugal 0-1 Spain. The outcome was missed: the model favoured a draw (38%), while victory for Spain was rated at only 34%. The final score ranked 2nd among the most likely scorelines (18.4%), behind 0-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (26%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (17%): correct.

Match analysis

Portugal and Spain met on Monday, July 6, 2026, a FIFA World Cup fixture. Venue: AT&T Stadium, Dallas. Before kick-off, our model gave Portugal a 28% chance of winning, the draw 38% and Spain 34%. On the correct score, 0-0 comes out on top (24.2%), followed by 0-1 (18.4%) and 1-0 (16.0%).

Portugal are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 10 and conceding 3. Spain are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw), scoring 11 and conceding 1. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Portugal score 2.00 and concede 0.60 goals per game; Spain score 2.20 and concede 0.20. In the table, Portugal sit 2nd with 5 points from 3 games, Spain 1st with 7 points from 3. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Portugal have averaged 1.59 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.03 for Spain.

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Portugal, 1 for Spain and 4 draws. In double chance terms, "Portugal or draw" stands at 66%, "Spain or draw" at 72% and "no draw" at 62%.

In short : Spain leads Group B with 7 points from 3 matches and a superior xG average of 2.03 compared to Portugal's 1.59, though Portugal sits second with an unbeaten record. Their head-to-head history shows 4 draws and 1 Spanish victory across 5 encounters, suggesting a competitive encounter where neither side has established clear dominance.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

28%
Portugal (Win)
38%
Draw
34%
Spain (Win)

Double chance

66%
Portugal or draw
72%
Spain or draw
62%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Portugal – Spain. 0-0 is the single most likely scoreline (24.2%); the 5 scores below add up to 78% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Portugal 0-0 Spain24.2%
Portugal 0-1 Spain18.4%
Portugal 1-0 Spain16.0%
Portugal 1-1 Spain12.1%
Portugal 0-2 Spain7.0%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 0.66 expected goals for Portugal and 0.76 for Spain, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 17% and "both teams to score" at 26%. Few goals are expected here. Portugal keep a clean sheet in 47% of scenarios, Spain in 52%.

Probability
Portugal expected goals0.66
Spain expected goals0.76
Both teams to score26%
Over 1.5 goals42%
Over 2.5 goals17%
Over 3.5 goals6%
Portugal clean sheet47%
Spain clean sheet52%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Portugal

DateOpponentScore
Jul 3, 2026Croatia · FIFA World Cup2-1W
Jun 28, 2026Colombia · FIFA World Cup0-0D
Jun 23, 2026Uzbekistan · FIFA World Cup5-0W
Jun 17, 2026DR Congo · FIFA World Cup1-1D
Jun 10, 2026Nigeria · International Friendlies2-1W

Spain

DateOpponentScore
Jul 2, 2026Austria · FIFA World Cup3-0W
Jun 27, 2026Uruguay · FIFA World Cup1-0W
Jun 21, 2026Saudi Arabia · FIFA World Cup4-0W
Jun 15, 2026Cape Verde · FIFA World Cup0-0D
Jun 9, 2026Peru · International Friendlies3-1W

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Portugal253
Spain173

Head-to-head

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Portugal, 1 for Spain and 4 draws.

Out and doubtful

Portugal

No absences reported.

Spain

No absences reported.

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Portugal vs Spain prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Portugal a 28% chance of winning, the draw 38% and Spain 34%. A draw is therefore the most likely outcome. Final score: 0-1.

What is the most likely correct score for Portugal vs Spain?

0-0 (24.2%), followed by 0-1 (18.4%), 1-0 (16.0%), 1-1 (12.1%) and 0-2 (7.0%).

Will both teams score in Portugal vs Spain?

The probability that both Portugal and Spain score is 26%. Portugal have a 47% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Spain 52%.

How many goals should we expect in Portugal vs Spain?

The model expects 1.42 goals (0.66 for Portugal, 0.76 for Spain). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 42%, over 2.5 goals 17%, over 3.5 goals 6%.

When and where is Portugal vs Spain played?

Monday, July 6, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), FIFA World Cup. Venue: AT&T Stadium, Dallas.

What form are Portugal and Spain in?

Portugal: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 3 conceded). Spain: 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (11 scored, 1 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Portugal and Spain?

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Portugal, 1 for Spain and 4 draws.

What was the Portugal vs Spain result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Portugal 0-1 Spain. The outcome was missed: the model favoured a draw (38%), while victory for Spain was rated at only 34%. The final score ranked 2nd among the most likely scorelines (18.4%), behind 0-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (26%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (17%): correct.

How is the Portugal vs Spain prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.66 for Portugal, 0.76 for Spain) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained