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FIFA World CupFIFA World Cup· Kick-off : Saturday, July 4, 2026, 18:00 (UK time)

Canada vs Morocco: 0-3 result and AI prediction review

CanadaCanada0 – 3MoroccoMorocco

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-2

Final score: Canada 0-3 Morocco. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Morocco was the model's favourite outcome (46%). The model considered this score unlikely (3.2%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (75%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (77%): correct.

Match analysis

Canada vs Morocco was played on Saturday, July 4, 2026 (FIFA World Cup). Venue: NRG Stadium, Houston. Before kick-off, our model gave Canada a 28% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Morocco 46%. The most likely correct score is 1-2 (7.8%), ahead of 2-2 (7.2%) and 1-1 (7.0%).

Over their last 5 matches, Canada have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 10 and conceding 4. Morocco are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (2 wins, 3 draws), scoring 8 and conceding 5. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Canada score 2.00 and concede 0.80 goals per game; Morocco score 1.60 and concede 1.00. In the table, Canada sit 2nd with 4 points from 3 games, Morocco 2nd with 7 points from 3. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Canada have averaged 2.20 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.88 for Morocco.

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Canada, 1 for Morocco and 0 draws. Canada out or doubtful: I. Koné. In double chance terms, "Canada or draw" stands at 54%, "Morocco or draw" at 72% and "no draw" at 74%.

In short : Morocco arrives unbeaten with 7 points from 3 matches, while Canada sits second in the group with only 4 points despite a superior goal difference of +5. Canada's higher expected goals average (2.2 vs 1.88) suggests attacking intent, but Morocco's perfect record and head-to-head advantage make them clear favorites.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

28%
Canada (Win)
26%
Draw
46%
Morocco (Win)

Double chance

54%
Canada or draw
72%
Morocco or draw
74%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Canada – Morocco. 1-2 is the single most likely scoreline (7.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 34% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Canada 1-2 Morocco7.8%
Canada 2-2 Morocco7.2%
Canada 1-1 Morocco7.0%
Canada 2-1 Morocco6.4%
Canada 1-3 Morocco5.8%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 4.08 goals in total (1.84 for Canada, 2.24 for Morocco): over 2.5 goals has a 77% probability and both teams to score 75%. Everything points to an open game. Canada keep a clean sheet in 11% of scenarios, Morocco in 16%.

Probability
Canada expected goals1.84
Morocco expected goals2.24
Both teams to score75%
Over 1.5 goals91%
Over 2.5 goals77%
Over 3.5 goals58%
Canada clean sheet11%
Morocco clean sheet16%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Canada

DateOpponentScore
Jun 28, 2026South Africa · FIFA World Cup1-0W
Jun 24, 2026Switzerland · FIFA World Cup1-2L
Jun 18, 2026Qatar · FIFA World Cup6-0W
Jun 12, 2026Bosnia & Herzegovina · FIFA World Cup1-1D
Jun 6, 2026Ireland · International Friendlies1-1D

Morocco

DateOpponentScore
Jun 30, 2026Netherlands · FIFA World Cup1-1D
Jun 24, 2026Haiti · FIFA World Cup4-2W
Jun 19, 2026Scotland · FIFA World Cup1-0W
Jun 13, 2026Brazil · FIFA World Cup1-1D
Jun 7, 2026Norway · International Friendlies1-1D

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Canada243
Morocco273

Head-to-head

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Canada, 1 for Morocco and 0 draws.

Out and doubtful

Canada

  • I. Koné (out)

Morocco

No absences reported.

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Canada vs Morocco prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Canada a 28% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Morocco 46%. Morocco are therefore favourites. Final score: 0-3.

What is the most likely correct score for Canada vs Morocco?

1-2 (7.8%), followed by 2-2 (7.2%), 1-1 (7.0%), 2-1 (6.4%) and 1-3 (5.8%).

Will both teams score in Canada vs Morocco?

The probability that both Canada and Morocco score is 75%. Canada have a 11% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Morocco 16%.

How many goals should we expect in Canada vs Morocco?

The model expects 4.08 goals (1.84 for Canada, 2.24 for Morocco). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 91%, over 2.5 goals 77%, over 3.5 goals 58%.

When and where is Canada vs Morocco played?

Saturday, July 4, 2026 at 18:00 (UK time), FIFA World Cup. Venue: NRG Stadium, Houston.

What form are Canada and Morocco in?

Canada: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 4 conceded). Morocco: 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 5 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Canada and Morocco?

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Canada, 1 for Morocco and 0 draws.

What was the Canada vs Morocco result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Canada 0-3 Morocco. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Morocco was the model's favourite outcome (46%). The model considered this score unlikely (3.2%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (75%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (77%): correct.

How is the Canada vs Morocco prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.84 for Canada, 2.24 for Morocco) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained