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FIFA World CupFIFA World Cup· Kick-off : Saturday, July 4, 2026, 22:00 (UK time)

Paraguay vs France: 0-1 result and AI prediction review

ParaguayParaguay0 – 1FranceFrance

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 0-2

Final score: Paraguay 0-1 France. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for France at 70%. The final score ranked 3rd among the most likely scorelines (12.3%), behind 0-2. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (24%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (61%): missed.

Match analysis

Paraguay and France met on Saturday, July 4, 2026, a FIFA World Cup fixture. Venue: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia. Before kick-off, our model gave Paraguay a 12% chance of winning, the draw 18% and France 70%. On the correct score, 0-2 comes out on top (17.5%), followed by 0-3 (16.5%) and 0-1 (12.3%).

Over their last 5 matches, Paraguay have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 7 and conceding 5. France are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (5 wins, 0 draws), scoring 16 and conceding 3. France therefore arrive in far better shape than Paraguay. On average Paraguay score 1.40 and concede 1.00 goals per game; France score 3.20 and concede 0.60. In the table, Paraguay sit 7th with 4 points from 3 games, France 1st with 9 points from 3. 6 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Paraguay have averaged 0.38 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.23 for France.

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Paraguay, 1 for France and 0 draws. Paraguay out or doubtful: D. Gómez. In double chance terms, "Paraguay or draw" stands at 30%, "France or draw" at 88% and "no draw" at 82%.

In short : France arrives unbeaten with 5 consecutive wins and a +8 goal differential, while Paraguay sits 7th with mixed form and a -2 goal difference. The visitors' 2.23 average expected goals per match dwarfs Paraguay's 0.38, and France's perfect 3-0 record in group play contrasts sharply with Paraguay's 1-1-1 standing.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

12%
Paraguay (Win)
18%
Draw
70%
France (Win)

Double chance

30%
Paraguay or draw
88%
France or draw
82%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Paraguay – France. 0-2 is the single most likely scoreline (17.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 65% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Paraguay 0-2 France17.5%
Paraguay 0-3 France16.5%
Paraguay 0-1 France12.3%
Paraguay 0-4 France11.7%
Paraguay 0-5 France6.7%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 0.30 expected goals for Paraguay and 2.84 for France, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 61% and "both teams to score" at 24%. Goals look likely in this one. Paraguay keep a clean sheet in 6% of scenarios, France in 74%.

Probability
Paraguay expected goals0.30
France expected goals2.84
Both teams to score24%
Over 1.5 goals82%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Over 3.5 goals38%
Paraguay clean sheet6%
France clean sheet74%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Paraguay

DateOpponentScore
Jun 29, 2026Germany · FIFA World Cup1-1D
Jun 26, 2026Australia · FIFA World Cup0-0D
Jun 20, 2026Türkiye · FIFA World Cup1-0W
Jun 13, 2026United States · FIFA World Cup1-4L
Jun 5, 2026Nicaragua · International Friendlies4-0W

France

DateOpponentScore
Jun 30, 2026Sweden · FIFA World Cup3-0W
Jun 26, 2026Norway · FIFA World Cup4-1W
Jun 22, 2026Iraq · FIFA World Cup3-0W
Jun 16, 2026Senegal · FIFA World Cup3-1W
Jun 8, 2026Northern Ireland · International Friendlies3-1W

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Paraguay743
France193

Head-to-head

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Paraguay, 1 for France and 0 draws.

Out and doubtful

Paraguay

  • D. Gómez (out)

France

No absences reported.

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Paraguay vs France prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Paraguay a 12% chance of winning, the draw 18% and France 70%. France are therefore favourites. Final score: 0-1.

What is the most likely correct score for Paraguay vs France?

0-2 (17.5%), followed by 0-3 (16.5%), 0-1 (12.3%), 0-4 (11.7%) and 0-5 (6.7%).

Will both teams score in Paraguay vs France?

The probability that both Paraguay and France score is 24%. Paraguay have a 6% chance of keeping a clean sheet, France 74%.

How many goals should we expect in Paraguay vs France?

The model expects 3.14 goals (0.30 for Paraguay, 2.84 for France). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 82%, over 2.5 goals 61%, over 3.5 goals 38%.

When and where is Paraguay vs France played?

Saturday, July 4, 2026 at 22:00 (UK time), FIFA World Cup. Venue: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia.

What form are Paraguay and France in?

Paraguay: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 5 conceded). France: 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (16 scored, 3 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Paraguay and France?

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Paraguay, 1 for France and 0 draws.

What was the Paraguay vs France result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Paraguay 0-1 France. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for France at 70%. The final score ranked 3rd among the most likely scorelines (12.3%), behind 0-2. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (24%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (61%): missed.

How is the Paraguay vs France prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.30 for Paraguay, 2.84 for France) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

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