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FIFA World CupFIFA World Cup· Kick-off : Friday, July 3, 2026, 19:00 (UK time)

Australia vs Egypt: 1-1 result and AI prediction review

AustraliaAustralia1 – 1EgyptEgypt

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 0-1

Final score: Australia 1-1 Egypt (2-4 on penalties). The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Egypt (40%), while a draw was rated at only 32%. The final score ranked 3rd among the most likely scorelines (12.9%), behind 0-1. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (37%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (30%): correct.

Match analysis

Australia vs Egypt was played on Friday, July 3, 2026 (FIFA World Cup). Venue: AT&T Stadium, Dallas. Before kick-off, our model gave Australia a 28% chance of winning, the draw 32% and Egypt 40%. The most likely correct score is 0-1 (17.0%), ahead of 0-0 (14.7%) and 1-1 (12.9%).

Australia have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 3 and conceding 4. Over their last 5 matches, Egypt have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 7 and conceding 5. Recent momentum is clearly with Egypt. On average Australia score 0.60 and concede 0.80 goals per game; Egypt score 1.40 and concede 1.00. In the table, Australia sit 2nd with 4 points from 3 games, Egypt 2nd with 5 points from 3. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Australia have averaged 0.70 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.26 for Egypt.

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Australia and Egypt: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. Australia out or doubtful: M. Leckie and J. Italiano. Egypt: Hossam Abdelmaguid, Mohanad Lasheen and Hamdi Fathy. In double chance terms, "Australia or draw" stands at 60%, "Egypt or draw" at 72% and "no draw" at 68%.

In short : Egypt arrives with superior form, unbeaten in group play with 5 points and a +2 goal difference, while Australia sits second with 4 points and a 0 goal differential. Egypt's 1.26 average xG significantly outpaces Australia's 0.7, suggesting the visitors possess a clear attacking advantage in this World Cup encounter.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

28%
Australia (Win)
32%
Draw
40%
Egypt (Win)

Double chance

60%
Australia or draw
72%
Egypt or draw
68%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Australia – Egypt. 0-1 is the single most likely scoreline (17.0%); the 5 scores below add up to 66% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Australia 0-1 Egypt17.0%
Australia 0-0 Egypt14.7%
Australia 1-1 Egypt12.9%
Australia 1-0 Egypt11.1%
Australia 0-2 Egypt9.9%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 1.92 goals in total (0.76 for Australia, 1.16 for Egypt): over 2.5 goals has a 30% probability and both teams to score 37%. A tight, low-scoring game is on the cards. Australia keep a clean sheet in 31% of scenarios, Egypt in 47%.

Probability
Australia expected goals0.76
Egypt expected goals1.16
Both teams to score37%
Over 1.5 goals57%
Over 2.5 goals30%
Over 3.5 goals13%
Australia clean sheet31%
Egypt clean sheet47%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Australia

DateOpponentScore
Jun 26, 2026Paraguay · FIFA World Cup0-0D
Jun 19, 2026United States · FIFA World Cup0-2L
Jun 14, 2026Türkiye · FIFA World Cup2-0W
Jun 6, 2026Switzerland · International Friendlies1-1D
May 31, 2026Mexico · International Friendlies0-1L

Egypt

DateOpponentScore
Jun 27, 2026Iran · FIFA World Cup1-1D
Jun 22, 2026New Zealand · FIFA World Cup3-1W
Jun 15, 2026Belgium · FIFA World Cup1-1D
Jun 6, 2026Brazil · International Friendlies1-2L
May 28, 2026Russia · International Friendlies1-0W

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Australia243
Egypt253

Head-to-head

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Australia and Egypt: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.

Out and doubtful

Australia

  • M. Leckie (out)
  • J. Italiano (out)

Egypt

  • Hossam Abdelmaguid (out)
  • Mohanad Lasheen (out)
  • Hamdi Fathy (out)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Australia vs Egypt prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Australia a 28% chance of winning, the draw 32% and Egypt 40%. Egypt are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 1-1.

What is the most likely correct score for Australia vs Egypt?

0-1 (17.0%), followed by 0-0 (14.7%), 1-1 (12.9%), 1-0 (11.1%) and 0-2 (9.9%).

Will both teams score in Australia vs Egypt?

The probability that both Australia and Egypt score is 37%. Australia have a 31% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Egypt 47%.

How many goals should we expect in Australia vs Egypt?

The model expects 1.92 goals (0.76 for Australia, 1.16 for Egypt). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 57%, over 2.5 goals 30%, over 3.5 goals 13%.

When and where is Australia vs Egypt played?

Friday, July 3, 2026 at 19:00 (UK time), FIFA World Cup. Venue: AT&T Stadium, Dallas.

What form are Australia and Egypt in?

Australia: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 4 conceded). Egypt: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 5 conceded).

What was the Australia vs Egypt result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Australia 1-1 Egypt (2-4 on penalties). The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Egypt (40%), while a draw was rated at only 32%. The final score ranked 3rd among the most likely scorelines (12.9%), behind 0-1. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (37%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (30%): correct.

How is the Australia vs Egypt prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.76 for Australia, 1.16 for Egypt) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained