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FIFA World CupFIFA World Cup· Kick-off : Sunday, July 5, 2026, 21:00 (UK time)

Brazil vs Norway: 1-2 result and AI prediction review

BrazilBrazil1 – 2NorwayNorway

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 2-1

Final score: Brazil 1-2 Norway. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Brazil (52%), while victory for Norway was rated at only 24%. The final score ranked 7th among the most likely scorelines (4.5%), behind 2-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (77%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (83%): correct.

Match analysis

Brazil and Norway met on Sunday, July 5, 2026, a FIFA World Cup fixture. Venue: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford. Before kick-off, our model gave Brazil a 52% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Norway 24%. On the correct score, 2-1 comes out on top (7.4%), followed by 3-1 (6.9%) and 2-2 (6.3%).

Brazil are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw), scoring 11 and conceding 3. Over their last 5 matches, Norway have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 11 and conceding 9. Brazil therefore arrive in far better shape than Norway. On average Brazil score 2.20 and concede 0.60 goals per game; Norway score 2.20 and concede 1.80. In the table, Brazil sit 1st with 7 points from 3 games, Norway 2nd with 6 points from 3. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Brazil have averaged 2.26 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.11 for Norway.

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Brazil and Norway: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. Brazil out or doubtful: Raphinha. In double chance terms, "Brazil or draw" stands at 76%, "Norway or draw" at 48% and "no draw" at 76%.

In short : Brazil tops the group with 7 points from 3 matches and a +6 goal difference, maintaining an unbeaten run with 2.26 expected goals per game. Norway sits second with 6 points but a modest +1 goal difference, having suffered one loss despite comparable attacking output of 2.11 xG per match.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

52%
Brazil (Win)
24%
Draw
24%
Norway (Win)

Double chance

76%
Brazil or draw
48%
Norway or draw
76%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Brazil – Norway. 2-1 is the single most likely scoreline (7.4%); the 5 scores below add up to 32% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Brazil 2-1 Norway7.4%
Brazil 3-1 Norway6.9%
Brazil 2-2 Norway6.3%
Brazil 3-2 Norway5.9%
Brazil 1-1 Norway5.3%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 2.81 expected goals for Brazil and 1.70 for Norway, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 83% and "both teams to score" at 77%. Goals look likely in this one. Brazil keep a clean sheet in 18% of scenarios, Norway in 6%.

Probability
Brazil expected goals2.81
Norway expected goals1.70
Both teams to score77%
Over 1.5 goals94%
Over 2.5 goals83%
Over 3.5 goals66%
Brazil clean sheet18%
Norway clean sheet6%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Brazil

DateOpponentScore
Jun 29, 2026Japan · FIFA World Cup2-1W
Jun 24, 2026Scotland · FIFA World Cup3-0W
Jun 20, 2026Haiti · FIFA World Cup3-0W
Jun 13, 2026Morocco · FIFA World Cup1-1D
Jun 6, 2026Egypt · International Friendlies2-1W

Norway

DateOpponentScore
Jun 30, 2026Ivory Coast · FIFA World Cup2-1W
Jun 26, 2026France · FIFA World Cup1-4L
Jun 23, 2026Senegal · FIFA World Cup3-2W
Jun 16, 2026Iraq · FIFA World Cup4-1W
Jun 7, 2026Morocco · International Friendlies1-1D

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Brazil173
Norway263

Head-to-head

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Brazil and Norway: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.

Out and doubtful

Brazil

  • Raphinha (out)

Norway

No absences reported.

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Brazil vs Norway prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Brazil a 52% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Norway 24%. Brazil are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-2.

What is the most likely correct score for Brazil vs Norway?

2-1 (7.4%), followed by 3-1 (6.9%), 2-2 (6.3%), 3-2 (5.9%) and 1-1 (5.3%).

Will both teams score in Brazil vs Norway?

The probability that both Brazil and Norway score is 77%. Brazil have a 18% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Norway 6%.

How many goals should we expect in Brazil vs Norway?

The model expects 4.51 goals (2.81 for Brazil, 1.70 for Norway). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 94%, over 2.5 goals 83%, over 3.5 goals 66%.

When and where is Brazil vs Norway played?

Sunday, July 5, 2026 at 21:00 (UK time), FIFA World Cup. Venue: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford.

What form are Brazil and Norway in?

Brazil: 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (11 scored, 3 conceded). Norway: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (11 scored, 9 conceded).

What was the Brazil vs Norway result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Brazil 1-2 Norway. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Brazil (52%), while victory for Norway was rated at only 24%. The final score ranked 7th among the most likely scorelines (4.5%), behind 2-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (77%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (83%): correct.

How is the Brazil vs Norway prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.81 for Brazil, 1.70 for Norway) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

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