FIFA World Cup· Kick-off : Tuesday, July 7, 2026, 01:00 (UK time)
United States vs Belgium: 1-4 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: United States 1-4 Belgium. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Belgium at 40%. The model considered this score unlikely (2.3%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (67%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (67%): correct.
Match analysis
United States and Belgium met on Tuesday, July 7, 2026, a FIFA World Cup fixture. Venue: Lumen Field, Seattle. Before kick-off, our model gave United States a 32% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Belgium 40%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (9.5%), followed by 1-2 (8.5%) and 2-1 (7.8%).
Over their last 5 matches, United States have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 11 and conceding 6. Belgium are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 14 and conceding 4. Both sides come in with similar form. On average United States score 2.20 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Belgium score 2.80 and concede 0.80. In the table, United States sit 1st with 6 points from 3 games, Belgium 1st with 5 points from 3. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, United States have averaged 1.36 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.15 for Belgium.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for United States, 1 for Belgium and 0 draws. The most recent ended United States 2-5 Belgium (Mar 28, 2026). United States out or doubtful: M. McKenzie, C. Roldan and F. Balogun. Belgium: Z. Debast. In double chance terms, "United States or draw" stands at 60%, "Belgium or draw" at 68% and "no draw" at 72%.
In short : Belgium arrives with superior recent form (3 wins in last 5) and a higher expected goals average of 2.15 compared to USA's 1.36, though both teams sit atop their group with identical goal differentials of +4. The head-to-head record heavily favors Belgium, who have won both previous encounters against the USA.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as United States – Belgium. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (9.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 39% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| United States 1-1 Belgium | 9.5% |
| United States 1-2 Belgium | 8.5% |
| United States 2-1 Belgium | 7.8% |
| United States 2-2 Belgium | 7.0% |
| United States 0-1 Belgium | 5.8% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.64 expected goals for United States and 1.79 for Belgium, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 67% and "both teams to score" at 67%. Goals look likely in this one. United States keep a clean sheet in 17% of scenarios, Belgium in 19%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| United States expected goals | 1.64 |
| Belgium expected goals | 1.79 |
| Both teams to score | 67% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45% |
| United States clean sheet | 17% |
| Belgium clean sheet | 19% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
United States
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2, 2026 | Bosnia & Herzegovina · FIFA World Cup | 2-0 | W |
| Jun 26, 2026 | Türkiye · FIFA World Cup | 2-3 | L |
| Jun 19, 2026 | Australia · FIFA World Cup | 2-0 | W |
| Jun 13, 2026 | Paraguay · FIFA World Cup | 4-1 | W |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Germany · International Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
Belgium
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 1, 2026 | Senegal · FIFA World Cup | 3-2 | W |
| Jun 27, 2026 | New Zealand · FIFA World Cup | 5-1 | W |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Iran · FIFA World Cup | 0-0 | D |
| Jun 15, 2026 | Egypt · FIFA World Cup | 1-1 | D |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Tunisia · International Friendlies | 5-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 1 | 6 | 3 |
| Belgium | 1 | 5 | 3 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2026 | United States 2-5 Belgium | International Friendlies |
Out and doubtful
United States
- M. McKenzie (out)
- C. Roldan (out)
- F. Balogun (out)
Belgium
- Z. Debast (out)
Other matches in this competition
- Argentina 3-2 Cape VerdeJul 3, 2026
- Colombia 1-0 GhanaJul 4, 2026
- Canada 0-3 MoroccoJul 4, 2026
- Paraguay 0-1 FranceJul 4, 2026
- Brazil 1-2 NorwayJul 5, 2026
- Mexico 2-3 EnglandJul 6, 2026
- Portugal 0-1 SpainJul 6, 2026
- Argentina 3-2 EgyptJul 7, 2026
- Switzerland 0-0 ColombiaJul 7, 2026
- France 2-0 MoroccoJul 9, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the United States vs Belgium prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave United States a 32% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Belgium 40%. Belgium are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 1-4.
What is the most likely correct score for United States vs Belgium?
1-1 (9.5%), followed by 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (7.8%), 2-2 (7.0%) and 0-1 (5.8%).
Will both teams score in United States vs Belgium?
The probability that both United States and Belgium score is 67%. United States have a 17% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Belgium 19%.
How many goals should we expect in United States vs Belgium?
The model expects 3.43 goals (1.64 for United States, 1.79 for Belgium). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 86%, over 2.5 goals 67%, over 3.5 goals 45%.
When and where is United States vs Belgium played?
Tuesday, July 7, 2026 at 01:00 (UK time), FIFA World Cup. Venue: Lumen Field, Seattle.
What form are United States and Belgium in?
United States: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (11 scored, 6 conceded). Belgium: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (14 scored, 4 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between United States and Belgium?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for United States, 1 for Belgium and 0 draws. The most recent ended United States 2-5 Belgium (Mar 28, 2026).
What was the United States vs Belgium result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: United States 1-4 Belgium. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Belgium at 40%. The model considered this score unlikely (2.3%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (67%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (67%): correct.
How is the United States vs Belgium prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.64 for United States, 1.79 for Belgium) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All United States predictions
- All Belgium predictions
- FIFA World Cup predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology