FIFA World Cup· Kick-off : Friday, July 10, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
Spain vs Belgium: 2-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Spain 2-1 Belgium. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Spain at 52%. The exact score 2-1 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (8.1%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (74%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (79%): correct.
Match analysis
Spain and Belgium met on Friday, July 10, 2026, a FIFA World Cup fixture. Venue: SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles. Before kick-off, our model gave Spain a 52% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Belgium 20%. On the correct score, 2-1 comes out on top (8.1%), followed by 3-1 (7.2%) and 2-2 (6.4%).
Spain are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw), scoring 9 and conceding 0. Belgium are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 13 and conceding 5. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Spain score 1.80 and concede 0.00 goals per game; Belgium score 2.60 and concede 1.00. In the table, Spain sit 1st with 7 points from 3 games, Belgium 1st with 5 points from 3. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Spain have averaged 1.96 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.12 for Belgium.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Spain and Belgium: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. Belgium: Z. Debast and A. Onana. In double chance terms, "Spain or draw" stands at 80%, "Belgium or draw" at 48% and "no draw" at 72%.
In short : Spain leads Group B with 7 points from 3 matches and an impressive +5 goal difference, while Belgium sits second with 5 points despite generating a higher average expected goals (2.12 vs 1.96). Both teams remain unbeaten, but Spain's superior record and group position give them the edge in this World Cup encounter.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Spain – Belgium. 2-1 is the single most likely scoreline (8.1%); the 5 scores below add up to 33% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Spain 2-1 Belgium | 8.1% |
| Spain 3-1 Belgium | 7.2% |
| Spain 2-2 Belgium | 6.4% |
| Spain 1-1 Belgium | 6.1% |
| Spain 3-2 Belgium | 5.6% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 2.65 expected goals for Spain and 1.57 for Belgium, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 79% and "both teams to score" at 74%. Goals look likely in this one. Spain keep a clean sheet in 21% of scenarios, Belgium in 7%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Spain expected goals | 2.65 |
| Belgium expected goals | 1.57 |
| Both teams to score | 74% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 92% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 79% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 61% |
| Spain clean sheet | 21% |
| Belgium clean sheet | 7% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Spain
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 6, 2026 | Portugal · FIFA World Cup | 1-0 | W |
| Jul 2, 2026 | Austria · FIFA World Cup | 3-0 | W |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Uruguay · FIFA World Cup | 1-0 | W |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Saudi Arabia · FIFA World Cup | 4-0 | W |
| Jun 15, 2026 | Cape Verde · FIFA World Cup | 0-0 | D |
Belgium
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 7, 2026 | United States · FIFA World Cup | 4-1 | W |
| Jul 1, 2026 | Senegal · FIFA World Cup | 3-2 | W |
| Jun 27, 2026 | New Zealand · FIFA World Cup | 5-1 | W |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Iran · FIFA World Cup | 0-0 | D |
| Jun 15, 2026 | Egypt · FIFA World Cup | 1-1 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 1 | 7 | 3 |
| Belgium | 1 | 5 | 3 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Spain and Belgium: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Spain
No absences reported.
Belgium
- Z. Debast (out)
- A. Onana (out)
Other matches in this competition
- Portugal 0-1 SpainJul 6, 2026
- United States 1-4 BelgiumJul 7, 2026
- Argentina 3-2 EgyptJul 7, 2026
- Switzerland 0-0 ColombiaJul 7, 2026
- France 2-0 MoroccoJul 9, 2026
- Norway 1-2 EnglandJul 11, 2026
- Argentina 3-1 SwitzerlandJul 12, 2026
- France 0-2 SpainJul 14, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Spain vs Belgium prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Spain a 52% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Belgium 20%. Spain are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Spain vs Belgium?
2-1 (8.1%), followed by 3-1 (7.2%), 2-2 (6.4%), 1-1 (6.1%) and 3-2 (5.6%).
Will both teams score in Spain vs Belgium?
The probability that both Spain and Belgium score is 74%. Spain have a 21% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Belgium 7%.
How many goals should we expect in Spain vs Belgium?
The model expects 4.22 goals (2.65 for Spain, 1.57 for Belgium). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 92%, over 2.5 goals 79%, over 3.5 goals 61%.
When and where is Spain vs Belgium played?
Friday, July 10, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), FIFA World Cup. Venue: SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles.
What form are Spain and Belgium in?
Spain: 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 0 conceded). Belgium: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (13 scored, 5 conceded).
What was the Spain vs Belgium result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Spain 2-1 Belgium. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Spain at 52%. The exact score 2-1 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (8.1%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (74%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (79%): correct.
How is the Spain vs Belgium prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.65 for Spain, 1.57 for Belgium) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Spain predictions
- All Belgium predictions
- FIFA World Cup predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology