La Liga· Kick-off : Sunday, August 23, 2026, 16:00 (UK time)
Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal: 2-2 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Atletico Madrid 2-2 Villarreal. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Atletico Madrid (68%), while a draw was rated at only 24%. The model considered this score unlikely (1.3%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (25%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (32%): missed.
Match analysis
Atletico Madrid and Villarreal met on Sunday, August 23, 2026, a La Liga, matchday 2 fixture. Venue: Metropolitano Stadium, Madrid. Before kick-off, our model gave Atletico Madrid a 68% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Villarreal 8%. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (22.0%), followed by 2-0 (17.7%) and 0-0 (13.7%).
Over their last 5 matches, Atletico Madrid have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 10 and conceding 7. Over their last 5 matches, Villarreal have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 8 and conceding 6. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Atletico Madrid score 2.00 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Villarreal score 1.60 and concede 1.20. In the table, Atletico Madrid sit 4th with 3 points from 1 games, Villarreal 8th with 1 points from 1. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Atletico Madrid have averaged 0.92 xG (expected goals) per match, against 0.67 for Villarreal.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Atletico Madrid, 1 for Villarreal and 0 draws. The most recent ended Villarreal 5-1 Atletico Madrid (May 24, 2026). Atletico Madrid out or doubtful: J. Alvarez, T. Lemar, C. Romero, A. Sorloth and O. Vargas. In double chance terms, "Atletico Madrid or draw" stands at 92%, "Villarreal or draw" at 32% and "no draw" at 76%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Atletico Madrid – Villarreal. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (22.0%); the 5 scores below add up to 71% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid 1-0 Villarreal | 22.0% |
| Atletico Madrid 2-0 Villarreal | 17.7% |
| Atletico Madrid 0-0 Villarreal | 13.7% |
| Atletico Madrid 3-0 Villarreal | 9.5% |
| Atletico Madrid 1-1 Villarreal | 8.4% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.61 expected goals for Atletico Madrid and 0.38 for Villarreal, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 32% and "both teams to score" at 25%. Few goals are expected here. Atletico Madrid keep a clean sheet in 68% of scenarios, Villarreal in 20%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid expected goals | 1.61 |
| Villarreal expected goals | 0.38 |
| Both teams to score | 25% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 59% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 32% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 14% |
| Atletico Madrid clean sheet | 68% |
| Villarreal clean sheet | 20% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Atletico Madrid
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Malaga · La Liga | 2-0 | W |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Marseille · Club Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Manchester City · Club Friendlies | 1-3 | L |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Manchester United · Club Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Getafe · Club Friendlies | 4-1 | W |
Villarreal
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Racing Santander · La Liga | 2-2 | D |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Galatasaray · Club Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Levante · Club Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Jul 25, 2026 | PSV Eindhoven · Club Friendlies | 3-1 | W |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Benfica · Club Friendlies | 0-2 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid | 4 | 3 | 1 |
| Villarreal | 8 | 1 | 1 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | Villarreal 5-1 Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| Sep 13, 2025 | Atletico Madrid 2-0 Villarreal | La Liga |
Out and doubtful
Atletico Madrid
- J. Alvarez (out)
- T. Lemar (out)
- C. Romero (out)
- A. Sorloth (out)
- O. Vargas (out)
Villarreal
No absences reported.
Other matches in this competition
- Rayo Vallecano 1-1 AlavesAug 20, 2026
- Real Betis 1-0 Real SociedadAug 21, 2026
- Athletic Club 1-3 SevillaAug 22, 2026
- Valencia 0-0 Celta VigoAug 22, 2026
- Espanyol 1-2 Real MadridAug 22, 2026
- Getafe 1-0 Racing SantanderAug 23, 2026
- Elche 0-5 BarcelonaAug 23, 2026
- Osasuna 0-0 LevanteAug 24, 2026
- Malaga 1-1 Deportivo La CorunaAug 24, 2026
- Valencia 0-1 Real BetisAug 25, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Atletico Madrid a 68% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Villarreal 8%. Atletico Madrid are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-2.
What is the most likely correct score for Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal?
1-0 (22.0%), followed by 2-0 (17.7%), 0-0 (13.7%), 3-0 (9.5%) and 1-1 (8.4%).
Will both teams score in Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal?
The probability that both Atletico Madrid and Villarreal score is 25%. Atletico Madrid have a 68% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Villarreal 20%.
How many goals should we expect in Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal?
The model expects 1.99 goals (1.61 for Atletico Madrid, 0.38 for Villarreal). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 59%, over 2.5 goals 32%, over 3.5 goals 14%.
When and where is Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal played?
Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 16:00 (UK time), La Liga, matchday 2. Venue: Metropolitano Stadium, Madrid.
What form are Atletico Madrid and Villarreal in?
Atletico Madrid: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 7 conceded). Villarreal: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 6 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Madrid and Villarreal?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Atletico Madrid, 1 for Villarreal and 0 draws. The most recent ended Villarreal 5-1 Atletico Madrid (May 24, 2026).
What was the Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Atletico Madrid 2-2 Villarreal. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Atletico Madrid (68%), while a draw was rated at only 24%. The model considered this score unlikely (1.3%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (25%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (32%): missed.
How is the Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.61 for Atletico Madrid, 0.38 for Villarreal) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Atletico Madrid predictions
- All Villarreal predictions
- La Liga predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology