La Liga· Kick-off : Thursday, August 20, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves: 1-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Alaves. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Rayo Vallecano (42%), while a draw was rated at only 32%. The final score ranked 3rd among the most likely scorelines (13.2%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (36%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (29%): correct.
Match analysis
Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves was played on Thursday, August 20, 2026 (La Liga, matchday 2). Venue: Estadio Municipal de Butarque, Leganes. Before kick-off, our model gave Rayo Vallecano a 42% chance of winning, the draw 32% and Alaves 27%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 (16.5%), ahead of 0-0 (15.3%) and 1-1 (13.2%).
Rayo Vallecano have won just one of their last 5 matches (0 draws, 4 defeats), scoring 6 and conceding 11. Alaves are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 9 and conceding 2. Recent momentum is clearly with Alaves. On average Rayo Vallecano score 1.20 and concede 2.20 goals per game; Alaves score 1.80 and concede 0.40. In the table, Rayo Vallecano sit 17th with 0 points from 1 games, Alaves 2nd with 3 points from 1. 15 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Rayo Vallecano have averaged 1.89 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.93 for Alaves.
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Rayo Vallecano, 1 for Alaves and 0 draws. The most recent ended Alaves 1-2 Rayo Vallecano (May 23, 2026). Rayo Vallecano out or doubtful: M. Kumbulla, Luiz Felipe and D. Mendez. Alaves: F. Garces, T. Mendes and N. Valentini. In double chance terms, "Rayo Vallecano or draw" stands at 73%, "Alaves or draw" at 58% and "no draw" at 68%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Rayo Vallecano – Alaves. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (16.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 66% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano 1-0 Alaves | 16.5% |
| Rayo Vallecano 0-0 Alaves | 15.3% |
| Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Alaves | 13.2% |
| Rayo Vallecano 0-1 Alaves | 12.2% |
| Rayo Vallecano 2-0 Alaves | 8.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 1.88 goals in total (1.08 for Rayo Vallecano, 0.80 for Alaves): over 2.5 goals has a 29% probability and both teams to score 36%. A tight, low-scoring game is on the cards. Rayo Vallecano keep a clean sheet in 45% of scenarios, Alaves in 34%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano expected goals | 1.08 |
| Alaves expected goals | 0.80 |
| Both teams to score | 36% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 29% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 12% |
| Rayo Vallecano clean sheet | 45% |
| Alaves clean sheet | 34% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Rayo Vallecano
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Sevilla · La Liga | 1-2 | L |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Ipswich · Club Friendlies | 0-3 | L |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Charleroi · Club Friendlies | 3-2 | W |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Feyenoord · Club Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Heart Of Midlothian · Club Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
Alaves
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Getafe · La Liga | 3-0 | W |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Racing Santander · Club Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Castellón · Club Friendlies | 3-0 | W |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Girona · Club Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Eibar · Club Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano | 17 | 0 | 1 |
| Alaves | 2 | 3 | 1 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 23, 2026 | Alaves 1-2 Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| Jan 14, 2026 | Alaves 2-0 Rayo Vallecano | Copa del Rey |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Rayo Vallecano 1-0 Alaves | La Liga |
Out and doubtful
Rayo Vallecano
- M. Kumbulla (out)
- Luiz Felipe (out)
- D. Mendez (out)
Alaves
- F. Garces (out)
- T. Mendes (out)
- N. Valentini (out)
Other matches in this competition
- Deportivo La Coruna 1-1 ElcheAug 17, 2026
- Atletico Madrid 2-0 MalagaAug 19, 2026
- Real Betis 1-0 Real SociedadAug 21, 2026
- Athletic Club 1-3 SevillaAug 22, 2026
- Valencia 0-0 Celta VigoAug 22, 2026
- Espanyol 1-2 Real MadridAug 22, 2026
- Atletico Madrid 2-2 VillarrealAug 23, 2026
- Getafe 1-0 Racing SantanderAug 23, 2026
- Elche 0-5 BarcelonaAug 23, 2026
- Osasuna 0-0 LevanteAug 24, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Rayo Vallecano a 42% chance of winning, the draw 32% and Alaves 27%. Rayo Vallecano are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 1-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves?
1-0 (16.5%), followed by 0-0 (15.3%), 1-1 (13.2%), 0-1 (12.2%) and 2-0 (8.9%).
Will both teams score in Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves?
The probability that both Rayo Vallecano and Alaves score is 36%. Rayo Vallecano have a 45% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Alaves 34%.
How many goals should we expect in Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves?
The model expects 1.88 goals (1.08 for Rayo Vallecano, 0.80 for Alaves). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 56%, over 2.5 goals 29%, over 3.5 goals 12%.
When and where is Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves played?
Thursday, August 20, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), La Liga, matchday 2. Venue: Estadio Municipal de Butarque, Leganes.
What form are Rayo Vallecano and Alaves in?
Rayo Vallecano: 1 win, 0 draws and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 11 conceded). Alaves: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 2 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Rayo Vallecano and Alaves?
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Rayo Vallecano, 1 for Alaves and 0 draws. The most recent ended Alaves 1-2 Rayo Vallecano (May 23, 2026).
What was the Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Alaves. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Rayo Vallecano (42%), while a draw was rated at only 32%. The final score ranked 3rd among the most likely scorelines (13.2%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (36%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (29%): correct.
How is the Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.08 for Rayo Vallecano, 0.80 for Alaves) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Rayo Vallecano predictions
- All Alaves predictions
- La Liga predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology