Peruvian Liga 1· Kick-off : Monday, October 12, 2026, 00:30 (UK time)
Cusco vs Alianza Lima: 1-2 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Cusco 1-2 Alianza Lima. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Cusco (58%), while victory for Alianza Lima was rated at only 19%. The final score ranked 9th among the most likely scorelines (5.0%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (50%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (51%): correct.
Match analysis
Cusco and Alianza Lima met on Monday, October 12, 2026, a Peruvian Liga 1 fixture. Venue: Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega, Cusco. Before kick-off, our model gave Cusco a 58% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Alianza Lima 19%. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (11.8%), followed by 1-1 (10.9%) and 2-0 (10.7%).
Over their last 5 matches, Cusco have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 7 and conceding 7. Alianza Lima have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 5 and conceding 6. Cusco therefore arrive in far better shape than Alianza Lima. On average Cusco score 1.40 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Alianza Lima score 1.00 and concede 1.20. In the table, Cusco sit 9th with 18 points from 10 games, Alianza Lima 11th with 16 points from 10. The two teams are close in the standings.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Cusco, 1 for Alianza Lima and 0 draws. The most recent ended Alianza Lima 8-0 Cusco (Apr 19, 2026). In double chance terms, "Cusco or draw" stands at 81%, "Alianza Lima or draw" at 42% and "no draw" at 77%.
In short : Our model backs Cusco to edge Alianza Lima (58% probability). In the table, Cusco (9th, 18 pts) host Alianza Lima (11th, 16 pts). Both teams could find the net (BTTS at 50%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Cusco – Alianza Lima. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 50% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Cusco 1-0 Alianza Lima | 11.8% |
| Cusco 1-1 Alianza Lima | 10.9% |
| Cusco 2-0 Alianza Lima | 10.7% |
| Cusco 2-1 Alianza Lima | 9.8% |
| Cusco 0-0 Alianza Lima | 6.5% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.81 expected goals for Cusco and 0.92 for Alianza Lima, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 51% and "both teams to score" at 50%. Cusco keep a clean sheet in 40% of scenarios, Alianza Lima in 16%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Cusco expected goals | 1.81 |
| Alianza Lima expected goals | 0.92 |
| Both teams to score | 50% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% |
| Cusco clean sheet | 40% |
| Alianza Lima clean sheet | 16% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Cusco
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | FC Cajamarca · Peruvian Liga 1 | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | FBC Melgar · Peruvian Liga 1 | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 6, 2026 | UCV Moquegua · Peruvian Liga 1 | 2-0 | W |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Cienciano · Peruvian Liga 1 | 2-1 | W |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Deportivo Garcilaso · Peruvian Liga 1 | 1-4 | L |
Alianza Lima
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | Palestino · Club Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 19, 2026 | ADT · Peruvian Liga 1 | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Universitario · Peruvian Liga 1 | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Juan Pablo II College · Peruvian Liga 1 | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Deportivo Garcilaso · Peruvian Liga 1 | 0-1 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cusco | 9 | 18 | 10 |
| Alianza Lima | 11 | 16 | 10 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 19, 2026 | Alianza Lima 8-0 Cusco | Peruvian Liga 1 |
Out and doubtful
Cusco
No absences reported.
Alianza Lima
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Cusco
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- C. Montano5/5
- I. Colman5/5
- J. Zevallos5/5
- N. Silva5/5
- R. Lagos5/5
- A. Ampuero4/5
- A. Fuentes4/5
- F. Callejo4/5
- P. Diaz4/5
- D. Soto3/5
- L. Colitto3/5
Alianza Lima
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Duarte5/5
- E. Castillo4/5
- E. Pavez4/5
- F. Gaibor4/5
- J. Velez4/5
- L. Advincula4/5
- R. Garces4/5
- F. Girotti3/5
- M. Huaman3/5
- A. Cantero2/5
- G. Chavez2/5
Other matches in this competition
- UCV Moquegua 0-2 CiencianoOct 8, 2026
- Atletico Grau 0-0 Club Deportivo Los ChankasOct 8, 2026
- Deportivo Garcilaso 0-1 Sport HuancayoOct 10, 2026
- ADT 0-0 FC CajamarcaOct 10, 2026
- Comerciantes Unidos 1-1 Juan Pablo II CollegeOct 10, 2026
- Universitario 2-2 FBC MelgarOct 11, 2026
- UTC Cajamarca 0-1 Sporting CristalOct 11, 2026
- Sport Boys 1-3 Alianza AtleticoOct 11, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Cusco vs Alianza Lima prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Cusco a 58% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Alianza Lima 19%. Cusco are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-2.
What is the most likely correct score for Cusco vs Alianza Lima?
1-0 (11.8%), followed by 1-1 (10.9%), 2-0 (10.7%), 2-1 (9.8%) and 0-0 (6.5%).
Will both teams score in Cusco vs Alianza Lima?
The probability that both Cusco and Alianza Lima score is 50%. Cusco have a 40% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Alianza Lima 16%.
How many goals should we expect in Cusco vs Alianza Lima?
The model expects 2.73 goals (1.81 for Cusco, 0.92 for Alianza Lima). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 76%, over 2.5 goals 51%, over 3.5 goals 29%.
When and where is Cusco vs Alianza Lima played?
Monday, October 12, 2026 at 00:30 (UK time), Peruvian Liga 1. Venue: Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega, Cusco.
What form are Cusco and Alianza Lima in?
Cusco: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 7 conceded). Alianza Lima: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 6 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Cusco and Alianza Lima?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Cusco, 1 for Alianza Lima and 0 draws. The most recent ended Alianza Lima 8-0 Cusco (Apr 19, 2026).
What was the Cusco vs Alianza Lima result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Cusco 1-2 Alianza Lima. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Cusco (58%), while victory for Alianza Lima was rated at only 19%. The final score ranked 9th among the most likely scorelines (5.0%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (50%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (51%): correct.
How is the Cusco vs Alianza Lima prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.81 for Cusco, 0.92 for Alianza Lima) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Cusco predictions
- All Alianza Lima predictions
- Peruvian Liga 1 predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology