Peruvian Liga 1· Kick-off : Sunday, October 11, 2026, 21:30 (UK time)
Sport Boys vs Alianza Atletico: 1-3 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Sport Boys 1-3 Alianza Atletico. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Sport Boys (48%), while victory for Alianza Atletico was rated at only 26%. The model considered this score unlikely (2.3%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (49%): missed.
Match analysis
Sport Boys vs Alianza Atletico was played on Sunday, October 11, 2026 (Peruvian Liga 1). Venue: Miguel Grau Stadium, Callao. Before kick-off, our model gave Sport Boys a 48% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Alianza Atletico 26%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (12.1%), ahead of 1-0 (11.2%) and 2-1 (9.4%).
Over their last 5 matches, Sport Boys have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 6 and conceding 6. Over their last 5 matches, Alianza Atletico have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 9 and conceding 9. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Sport Boys score 1.20 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Alianza Atletico score 1.80 and concede 1.80. In the table, Sport Boys sit 8th with 18 points from 10 games, Alianza Atletico 7th with 19 points from 10. The two teams are close in the standings.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Sport Boys, 0 for Alianza Atletico and 0 draws. The most recent ended Alianza Atletico 0-1 Sport Boys (Apr 19, 2026). In double chance terms, "Sport Boys or draw" stands at 74%, "Alianza Atletico or draw" at 52% and "no draw" at 74%.
In short : Sport Boys are tipped by our AI model in this Sport Boys v Alianza Atletico (48%). On recent form, Sport Boys have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5 while Alianza Atletico have 3 wins, 0 draw and 2 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Sport Boys – Alianza Atletico. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.1%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Sport Boys 1-1 Alianza Atletico | 12.1% |
| Sport Boys 1-0 Alianza Atletico | 11.2% |
| Sport Boys 2-1 Alianza Atletico | 9.4% |
| Sport Boys 2-0 Alianza Atletico | 8.7% |
| Sport Boys 0-1 Alianza Atletico | 7.8% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.63 goals in total (1.55 for Sport Boys, 1.08 for Alianza Atletico): over 2.5 goals has a 49% probability and both teams to score 52%. Sport Boys keep a clean sheet in 34% of scenarios, Alianza Atletico in 21%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Sport Boys expected goals | 1.55 |
| Alianza Atletico expected goals | 1.08 |
| Both teams to score | 52% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% |
| Sport Boys clean sheet | 34% |
| Alianza Atletico clean sheet | 21% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Sport Boys
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2026 | Alianza Atletico · Copa De La Liga | 0-3 | L |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Alianza Atletico · Copa De La Liga | 3-0 | W |
| Sep 20, 2026 | FBC Melgar · Peruvian Liga 1 | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Deportivo Garcilaso · Peruvian Liga 1 | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Sport Huancayo · Peruvian Liga 1 | 1-2 | L |
Alianza Atletico
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2026 | Sport Boys · Copa De La Liga | 3-0 | W |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Sport Boys · Copa De La Liga | 0-3 | L |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Comerciantes Unidos · Peruvian Liga 1 | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Atletico Grau · Peruvian Liga 1 | 1-3 | L |
| Sep 4, 2026 | UTC Cajamarca · Peruvian Liga 1 | 3-2 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Boys | 8 | 18 | 10 |
| Alianza Atletico | 7 | 19 | 10 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 19, 2026 | Alianza Atletico 0-1 Sport Boys | Peruvian Liga 1 |
Out and doubtful
Sport Boys
No absences reported.
Alianza Atletico
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Sport Boys
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- C. Zambrano4/5
- H. Riojas4/5
- J. Alarcon4/5
- M. Llontop4/5
- Y. Celi4/5
- C. Cueva3/5
- D. Melian3/5
- E. Saba3/5
- L. Urruti3/5
- O. Mora3/5
- P. Erustes3/5
Alianza Atletico
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- C. Penilla4/5
- G. Diaz4/5
- H. Lupu4/5
- J. Lujan4/5
- J. Molina4/5
- R. Suarez4/5
- S. Fernandez4/5
- A. Gordillo3/5
- J. Ingratti3/5
- S. Rivadeneyra3/5
- A. Munoz2/5
Other matches in this competition
- UCV Moquegua 0-2 CiencianoOct 8, 2026
- Atletico Grau 0-0 Club Deportivo Los ChankasOct 8, 2026
- Deportivo Garcilaso 0-1 Sport HuancayoOct 10, 2026
- ADT 0-0 FC CajamarcaOct 10, 2026
- Comerciantes Unidos 1-1 Juan Pablo II CollegeOct 10, 2026
- Universitario 2-2 FBC MelgarOct 11, 2026
- UTC Cajamarca 0-1 Sporting CristalOct 11, 2026
- Cusco 1-2 Alianza LimaOct 12, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Sport Boys vs Alianza Atletico prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Sport Boys a 48% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Alianza Atletico 26%. Sport Boys are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-3.
What is the most likely correct score for Sport Boys vs Alianza Atletico?
1-1 (12.1%), followed by 1-0 (11.2%), 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (8.7%) and 0-1 (7.8%).
Will both teams score in Sport Boys vs Alianza Atletico?
The probability that both Sport Boys and Alianza Atletico score is 52%. Sport Boys have a 34% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Alianza Atletico 21%.
How many goals should we expect in Sport Boys vs Alianza Atletico?
The model expects 2.63 goals (1.55 for Sport Boys, 1.08 for Alianza Atletico). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 49%, over 3.5 goals 27%.
When and where is Sport Boys vs Alianza Atletico played?
Sunday, October 11, 2026 at 21:30 (UK time), Peruvian Liga 1. Venue: Miguel Grau Stadium, Callao.
What form are Sport Boys and Alianza Atletico in?
Sport Boys: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 6 conceded). Alianza Atletico: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 9 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Sport Boys and Alianza Atletico?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Sport Boys, 0 for Alianza Atletico and 0 draws. The most recent ended Alianza Atletico 0-1 Sport Boys (Apr 19, 2026).
What was the Sport Boys vs Alianza Atletico result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Sport Boys 1-3 Alianza Atletico. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Sport Boys (48%), while victory for Alianza Atletico was rated at only 26%. The model considered this score unlikely (2.3%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (49%): missed.
How is the Sport Boys vs Alianza Atletico prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.55 for Sport Boys, 1.08 for Alianza Atletico) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Sport Boys predictions
- All Alianza Atletico predictions
- Peruvian Liga 1 predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology