Peruvian Liga 1· Kick-off : Sunday, October 11, 2026, 19:00 (UK time)
UTC Cajamarca vs Sporting Cristal: 0-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: UTC Cajamarca 0-1 Sporting Cristal. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Sporting Cristal at 60%. The exact score 0-1 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (11.8%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (50%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (52%): missed.
Match analysis
UTC Cajamarca and Sporting Cristal met on Sunday, October 11, 2026, a Peruvian Liga 1 fixture. Venue: Estadio Héroes de San Ramón, Cajamarca. Before kick-off, our model gave UTC Cajamarca a 18% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Sporting Cristal 60%. On the correct score, 0-1 comes out on top (11.8%), followed by 0-2 (10.9%) and 1-1 (10.6%).
UTC Cajamarca have not won any of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 4 defeats), scoring 8 and conceding 13. Sporting Cristal are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (5 wins, 0 draws), scoring 16 and conceding 2. Sporting Cristal therefore arrive in far better shape than UTC Cajamarca. On average UTC Cajamarca score 1.60 and concede 2.60 goals per game; Sporting Cristal score 3.20 and concede 0.40. In the table, UTC Cajamarca sit 18th with 2 points from 10 games, Sporting Cristal 4th with 19 points from 10. 14 places separate the two sides.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for UTC Cajamarca, 3 for Sporting Cristal and 1 draw. The most recent ended Sporting Cristal 3-2 UTC Cajamarca (Apr 19, 2026). In double chance terms, "UTC Cajamarca or draw" stands at 40%, "Sporting Cristal or draw" at 82% and "no draw" at 78%.
In short : Sporting Cristal are favourites for this UTC Cajamarca v Sporting Cristal, with a 60% win probability from our model. In the table, UTC Cajamarca (18th, 2 pts) host Sporting Cristal (4th, 19 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as UTC Cajamarca – Sporting Cristal. 0-1 is the single most likely scoreline (11.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 50% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| UTC Cajamarca 0-1 Sporting Cristal | 11.8% |
| UTC Cajamarca 0-2 Sporting Cristal | 10.9% |
| UTC Cajamarca 1-1 Sporting Cristal | 10.6% |
| UTC Cajamarca 1-2 Sporting Cristal | 9.8% |
| UTC Cajamarca 0-3 Sporting Cristal | 6.7% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 0.90 expected goals for UTC Cajamarca and 1.85 for Sporting Cristal, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 52% and "both teams to score" at 50%. UTC Cajamarca keep a clean sheet in 16% of scenarios, Sporting Cristal in 41%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| UTC Cajamarca expected goals | 0.90 |
| Sporting Cristal expected goals | 1.85 |
| Both teams to score | 50% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% |
| UTC Cajamarca clean sheet | 16% |
| Sporting Cristal clean sheet | 41% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
UTC Cajamarca
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Sport Huancayo · Peruvian Liga 1 | 2-3 | L |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Juan Pablo II College · Peruvian Liga 1 | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Alianza Atletico · Peruvian Liga 1 | 2-3 | L |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Universitario · Peruvian Liga 1 | 2-4 | L |
| Aug 25, 2026 | Alianza Atletico · Copa De La Liga | 1-1 | D |
Sporting Cristal
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | ADT · Copa De La Liga | 5-0 | W |
| Sep 27, 2026 | ADT · Copa De La Liga | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Atletico Grau · Peruvian Liga 1 | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 13, 2026 | UCV Moquegua · Peruvian Liga 1 | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas · Peruvian Liga 1 | 5-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UTC Cajamarca | 18 | 2 | 10 |
| Sporting Cristal | 4 | 19 | 10 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 19, 2026 | Sporting Cristal 3-2 UTC Cajamarca | Primera División |
| Aug 23, 2025 | Sporting Cristal 2-2 UTC Cajamarca | Primera División |
| Apr 6, 2025 | UTC Cajamarca 4-1 Sporting Cristal | Primera División |
| Aug 25, 2024 | Sporting Cristal 4-0 UTC Cajamarca | Primera División |
| Mar 31, 2024 | UTC Cajamarca 1-2 Sporting Cristal | Primera División |
Out and doubtful
UTC Cajamarca
No absences reported.
Sporting Cristal
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
UTC Cajamarca
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- L. Arce5/5
- L. Garro5/5
- B. Duarte4/5
- D. Camacho4/5
- F. Cavagna4/5
- G. Paredes4/5
- M. Lliuya4/5
- R. Bettocchi4/5
- A. Figuera3/5
- A. Munoz3/5
- J. Cantt3/5
Sporting Cristal
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- M. Castro5/5
- R. Lutiger5/5
- D. Enriquez4/5
- L. Iberico4/5
- L. Sosa4/5
- M. Hoyos4/5
- A. Alvarez Wallace3/5
- Cristiano3/5
- M. Araujo3/5
- S. Gonzalez3/5
- Y. Yotun3/5
Other matches in this competition
- UCV Moquegua 0-2 CiencianoOct 8, 2026
- Atletico Grau 0-0 Club Deportivo Los ChankasOct 8, 2026
- Deportivo Garcilaso 0-1 Sport HuancayoOct 10, 2026
- ADT 0-0 FC CajamarcaOct 10, 2026
- Comerciantes Unidos 1-1 Juan Pablo II CollegeOct 10, 2026
- Universitario 2-2 FBC MelgarOct 11, 2026
- Sport Boys 1-3 Alianza AtleticoOct 11, 2026
- Cusco 1-2 Alianza LimaOct 12, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the UTC Cajamarca vs Sporting Cristal prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave UTC Cajamarca a 18% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Sporting Cristal 60%. Sporting Cristal are therefore favourites. Final score: 0-1.
What is the most likely correct score for UTC Cajamarca vs Sporting Cristal?
0-1 (11.8%), followed by 0-2 (10.9%), 1-1 (10.6%), 1-2 (9.8%) and 0-3 (6.7%).
Will both teams score in UTC Cajamarca vs Sporting Cristal?
The probability that both UTC Cajamarca and Sporting Cristal score is 50%. UTC Cajamarca have a 16% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Sporting Cristal 41%.
How many goals should we expect in UTC Cajamarca vs Sporting Cristal?
The model expects 2.75 goals (0.90 for UTC Cajamarca, 1.85 for Sporting Cristal). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 76%, over 2.5 goals 52%, over 3.5 goals 30%.
When and where is UTC Cajamarca vs Sporting Cristal played?
Sunday, October 11, 2026 at 19:00 (UK time), Peruvian Liga 1. Venue: Estadio Héroes de San Ramón, Cajamarca.
What form are UTC Cajamarca and Sporting Cristal in?
UTC Cajamarca: 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 13 conceded). Sporting Cristal: 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (16 scored, 2 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between UTC Cajamarca and Sporting Cristal?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for UTC Cajamarca, 3 for Sporting Cristal and 1 draw. The most recent ended Sporting Cristal 3-2 UTC Cajamarca (Apr 19, 2026).
What was the UTC Cajamarca vs Sporting Cristal result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: UTC Cajamarca 0-1 Sporting Cristal. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Sporting Cristal at 60%. The exact score 0-1 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (11.8%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (50%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (52%): missed.
How is the UTC Cajamarca vs Sporting Cristal prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.90 for UTC Cajamarca, 1.85 for Sporting Cristal) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All UTC Cajamarca predictions
- All Sporting Cristal predictions
- Peruvian Liga 1 predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology