Peruvian Liga 1· Kick-off : Sunday, October 11, 2026, 01:00 (UK time)
Universitario vs FBC Melgar: 2-2 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Universitario 2-2 FBC Melgar. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Universitario (56%), while a draw was rated at only 24%. The final score ranked 10th among the most likely scorelines (4.7%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (51%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (51%): correct.
Match analysis
Universitario vs FBC Melgar was played on Sunday, October 11, 2026 (Peruvian Liga 1). Venue: Estadio Monumental U Marathon, Lima. Before kick-off, our model gave Universitario a 56% chance of winning, the draw 24% and FBC Melgar 20%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 (11.6%), ahead of 1-1 (11.2%) and 2-0 (10.2%).
Over their last 5 matches, Universitario have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 11 and conceding 9. Over their last 5 matches, FBC Melgar have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 6 and conceding 3. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Universitario score 2.20 and concede 1.80 goals per game; FBC Melgar score 1.20 and concede 0.60. In the table, Universitario sit 3rd with 20 points from 10 games, FBC Melgar 7th with 18 points from 10. The two teams are close in the standings.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Universitario, 1 for FBC Melgar and 0 draws. The most recent ended FBC Melgar 2-1 Universitario (Apr 19, 2026). In double chance terms, "Universitario or draw" stands at 80%, "FBC Melgar or draw" at 44% and "no draw" at 76%.
In short : Universitario are tipped by our AI model in this Universitario v FBC Melgar (56%). On recent form, Universitario have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5 while FBC Melgar have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Universitario – FBC Melgar. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 50% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Universitario 1-0 FBC Melgar | 11.6% |
| Universitario 1-1 FBC Melgar | 11.2% |
| Universitario 2-0 FBC Melgar | 10.2% |
| Universitario 2-1 FBC Melgar | 9.8% |
| Universitario 0-0 FBC Melgar | 6.7% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.71 goals in total (1.75 for Universitario, 0.96 for FBC Melgar): over 2.5 goals has a 51% probability and both teams to score 51%. Universitario keep a clean sheet in 38% of scenarios, FBC Melgar in 17%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Universitario expected goals | 1.75 |
| FBC Melgar expected goals | 0.96 |
| Both teams to score | 51% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% |
| Universitario clean sheet | 38% |
| FBC Melgar clean sheet | 17% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Universitario
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Deportivo Garcilaso · Peruvian Liga 1 | 0-4 | L |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Alianza Lima · Peruvian Liga 1 | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Comerciantes Unidos · Peruvian Liga 1 | 2-2 | D |
| Aug 29, 2026 | UTC Cajamarca · Peruvian Liga 1 | 4-2 | W |
| Aug 24, 2026 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas · Peruvian Liga 1 | 3-0 | W |
FBC Melgar
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Sport Boys · Peruvian Liga 1 | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Cusco · Peruvian Liga 1 | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 7, 2026 | ADT · Peruvian Liga 1 | 3-0 | W |
| Sep 1, 2026 | Atletico Grau · Peruvian Liga 1 | 0-1 | L |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Alianza Lima · Peruvian Liga 1 | 1-1 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Universitario | 3 | 20 | 10 |
| FBC Melgar | 7 | 18 | 10 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 19, 2026 | FBC Melgar 2-1 Universitario | Peruvian Liga 1 |
| Jan 20, 2026 | Universitario 3-2 FBC Melgar | Club Friendlies |
Out and doubtful
Universitario
No absences reported.
FBC Melgar
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Universitario
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Polo5/5
- A. Valera5/5
- C. Fara5/5
- C. Inga5/5
- D. Romero5/5
- J. Concha5/5
- W. Riveros5/5
- G. Lapadula4/5
- M. Di Benedetto4/5
- A. Quiroz3/5
- J. Requena3/5
FBC Melgar
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- B. Cuesta5/5
- C. Bordacahar5/5
- J. Cabezudo5/5
- J. Escobar5/5
- J. Vidales5/5
- K. Minda5/5
- L. Gonzalez5/5
- M. Lazo5/5
- N. Cabanillas5/5
- N. Quagliata4/5
- W. Tandazo3/5
Other matches in this competition
- UCV Moquegua 0-2 CiencianoOct 8, 2026
- Atletico Grau 0-0 Club Deportivo Los ChankasOct 8, 2026
- Deportivo Garcilaso 0-1 Sport HuancayoOct 10, 2026
- ADT 0-0 FC CajamarcaOct 10, 2026
- Comerciantes Unidos 1-1 Juan Pablo II CollegeOct 10, 2026
- UTC Cajamarca 0-1 Sporting CristalOct 11, 2026
- Sport Boys 1-3 Alianza AtleticoOct 11, 2026
- Cusco 1-2 Alianza LimaOct 12, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Universitario vs FBC Melgar prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Universitario a 56% chance of winning, the draw 24% and FBC Melgar 20%. Universitario are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-2.
What is the most likely correct score for Universitario vs FBC Melgar?
1-0 (11.6%), followed by 1-1 (11.2%), 2-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.8%) and 0-0 (6.7%).
Will both teams score in Universitario vs FBC Melgar?
The probability that both Universitario and FBC Melgar score is 51%. Universitario have a 38% chance of keeping a clean sheet, FBC Melgar 17%.
How many goals should we expect in Universitario vs FBC Melgar?
The model expects 2.71 goals (1.75 for Universitario, 0.96 for FBC Melgar). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 75%, over 2.5 goals 51%, over 3.5 goals 29%.
When and where is Universitario vs FBC Melgar played?
Sunday, October 11, 2026 at 01:00 (UK time), Peruvian Liga 1. Venue: Estadio Monumental U Marathon, Lima.
What form are Universitario and FBC Melgar in?
Universitario: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (11 scored, 9 conceded). FBC Melgar: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 3 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Universitario and FBC Melgar?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Universitario, 1 for FBC Melgar and 0 draws. The most recent ended FBC Melgar 2-1 Universitario (Apr 19, 2026).
What was the Universitario vs FBC Melgar result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Universitario 2-2 FBC Melgar. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Universitario (56%), while a draw was rated at only 24%. The final score ranked 10th among the most likely scorelines (4.7%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (51%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (51%): correct.
How is the Universitario vs FBC Melgar prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.75 for Universitario, 0.96 for FBC Melgar) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Universitario predictions
- All FBC Melgar predictions
- Peruvian Liga 1 predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology