Liga MX· Kick-off : Sunday, October 11, 2026, 02:00 (UK time)
Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas: 1-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Atlas 1-1 Guadalajara Chivas. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Atlas (46%), while a draw was rated at only 26%. The exact score 1-1 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (12.2%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (48%): correct.
Match analysis
Atlas and Guadalajara Chivas met on Sunday, October 11, 2026, a Liga MX fixture. Venue: Estadio Jalisco, Guadalajara. Before kick-off, our model gave Atlas a 46% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Guadalajara Chivas 28%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (12.2%), followed by 1-0 (11.0%) and 2-1 (9.2%).
Atlas have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 8 and conceding 12. Over their last 5 matches, Guadalajara Chivas have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 10 and conceding 4. Guadalajara Chivas therefore arrive in far better shape than Atlas. On average Atlas score 1.60 and concede 2.40 goals per game; Guadalajara Chivas score 2.00 and concede 0.80. In the table, Atlas sit 6th with 17 points from 10 games, Guadalajara Chivas 3rd with 18 points from 10. The two teams are close in the standings.
In the last 4 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Atlas, 3 for Guadalajara Chivas and 1 draw. The most recent ended Atlas 0-1 Guadalajara Chivas (Mar 30, 2026). In double chance terms, "Atlas or draw" stands at 72%, "Guadalajara Chivas or draw" at 54% and "no draw" at 74%.
In short : Atlas are favourites for this Atlas v Guadalajara Chivas, with a 46% win probability from our model. On recent form, Atlas have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in 5 while Guadalajara Chivas have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Atlas – Guadalajara Chivas. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.2%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Atlas 1-1 Guadalajara Chivas | 12.2% |
| Atlas 1-0 Guadalajara Chivas | 11.0% |
| Atlas 2-1 Guadalajara Chivas | 9.2% |
| Atlas 2-0 Guadalajara Chivas | 8.3% |
| Atlas 0-1 Guadalajara Chivas | 8.2% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.50 expected goals for Atlas and 1.11 for Guadalajara Chivas, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 48% and "both teams to score" at 52%. Atlas keep a clean sheet in 33% of scenarios, Guadalajara Chivas in 22%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Atlas expected goals | 1.50 |
| Guadalajara Chivas expected goals | 1.11 |
| Both teams to score | 52% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% |
| Atlas clean sheet | 33% |
| Guadalajara Chivas clean sheet | 22% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Atlas
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26, 2026 | Club Tijuana · Liga MX | 3-2 | W |
| Sep 20, 2026 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas · Liga MX | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Toluca · Liga MX | 2-5 | L |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Atlante FC · Liga MX | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Club Queretaro · Liga MX | 1-3 | L |
Guadalajara Chivas
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 2026 | Club America · Club Friendlies | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Club Queretaro · Liga MX | 0-2 | L |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Club America · Liga MX | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 14, 2026 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas · Liga MX | 3-0 | W |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Atletico San Luis · Liga MX | 3-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlas | 6 | 17 | 10 |
| Guadalajara Chivas | 3 | 18 | 10 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2026 | Atlas 0-1 Guadalajara Chivas | Club Friendlies |
| Mar 8, 2026 | Atlas 1-2 Guadalajara Chivas | Liga MX |
| Jan 4, 2026 | Atlas 0-0 Guadalajara Chivas | Club Friendlies |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Guadalajara Chivas 4-1 Atlas | Liga MX |
Out and doubtful
Atlas
No absences reported.
Guadalajara Chivas
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Atlas
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- C. Vargas5/5
- J. Sanchez5/5
- F. Monzon4/5
- L. Esteves4/5
- M. Capasso4/5
- A. Gonzalez3/5
- M. Valenzuela3/5
- A. Frias2/5
- A. Rocha2/5
- Duk2/5
- E. Montiel2/5
Guadalajara Chivas
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- D. Aguirre5/5
- F. Gonzalez4/5
- L. Romo4/5
- O. Govea4/5
- R. Alvarado4/5
- A. Sepulveda3/5
- D. Campillo Del Campo3/5
- H. Camberos3/5
- R. Marin3/5
- R. Rangel3/5
- S. Sandoval3/5
Other matches in this competition
- Puebla 1-1 LeonOct 10, 2026
- Tigres UANL 3-2 TolucaOct 10, 2026
- Club Queretaro 2-0 Atlante FCOct 11, 2026
- FC Juarez 1-1 Club TijuanaOct 11, 2026
- Club America 1-1 MonterreyOct 11, 2026
- Atletico San Luis 1-2 Santos LagunaOct 12, 2026
- CF Pachuca 3-3 NecaxaOct 12, 2026
- U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3-3 Cruz AzulOct 12, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Atlas a 46% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Guadalajara Chivas 28%. Atlas are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas?
1-1 (12.2%), followed by 1-0 (11.0%), 2-1 (9.2%), 2-0 (8.3%) and 0-1 (8.2%).
Will both teams score in Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas?
The probability that both Atlas and Guadalajara Chivas score is 52%. Atlas have a 33% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Guadalajara Chivas 22%.
How many goals should we expect in Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas?
The model expects 2.61 goals (1.50 for Atlas, 1.11 for Guadalajara Chivas). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 48%, over 3.5 goals 27%.
When and where is Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas played?
Sunday, October 11, 2026 at 02:00 (UK time), Liga MX. Venue: Estadio Jalisco, Guadalajara.
What form are Atlas and Guadalajara Chivas in?
Atlas: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 12 conceded). Guadalajara Chivas: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 4 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Atlas and Guadalajara Chivas?
In the last 4 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Atlas, 3 for Guadalajara Chivas and 1 draw. The most recent ended Atlas 0-1 Guadalajara Chivas (Mar 30, 2026).
What was the Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Atlas 1-1 Guadalajara Chivas. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Atlas (46%), while a draw was rated at only 26%. The exact score 1-1 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (12.2%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (48%): correct.
How is the Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.50 for Atlas, 1.11 for Guadalajara Chivas) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Atlas predictions
- All Guadalajara Chivas predictions
- Liga MX predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology