Liga MX· Kick-off : Monday, October 12, 2026, 02:15 (UK time)
U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Cruz Azul: 3-3 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3-3 Cruz Azul. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for U.N.A.M. - Pumas (42%), while a draw was rated at only 26%. The model considered this score unlikely (1.0%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (53%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (48%): missed.
Match analysis
U.N.A.M. - Pumas and Cruz Azul met on Monday, October 12, 2026, a Liga MX fixture. Venue: Estadio Olímpico Universitario, Mexico City. Before kick-off, our model gave U.N.A.M. - Pumas a 42% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Cruz Azul 32%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (12.5%), followed by 1-0 (10.4%) and 0-1 (9.0%).
U.N.A.M. - Pumas have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 6 and conceding 10. Cruz Azul have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 7 and conceding 9. Both sides come in with similar form. On average U.N.A.M. - Pumas score 1.20 and concede 2.00 goals per game; Cruz Azul score 1.40 and concede 1.80. In the table, U.N.A.M. - Pumas sit 13th with 12 points from 10 games, Cruz Azul 7th with 16 points from 10. 6 places separate the two sides.
In the last 4 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for U.N.A.M. - Pumas, 1 for Cruz Azul and 2 draws. The most recent ended U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1-2 Cruz Azul (May 25, 2026). In double chance terms, "U.N.A.M. - Pumas or draw" stands at 68%, "Cruz Azul or draw" at 58% and "no draw" at 74%.
In short : U.N.A.M. - Pumas are tipped by our AI model in this U.N.A.M. - Pumas v Cruz Azul (42%). In the table, U.N.A.M. - Pumas (13th, 12 pts) host Cruz Azul (7th, 16 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as U.N.A.M. - Pumas – Cruz Azul. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 48% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1-1 Cruz Azul | 12.5% |
| U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1-0 Cruz Azul | 10.4% |
| U.N.A.M. - Pumas 0-1 Cruz Azul | 9.0% |
| U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2-1 Cruz Azul | 8.7% |
| U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1-2 Cruz Azul | 7.5% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.39 expected goals for U.N.A.M. - Pumas and 1.20 for Cruz Azul, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 48% and "both teams to score" at 53%. U.N.A.M. - Pumas keep a clean sheet in 30% of scenarios, Cruz Azul in 25%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| U.N.A.M. - Pumas expected goals | 1.39 |
| Cruz Azul expected goals | 1.20 |
| Both teams to score | 53% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% |
| U.N.A.M. - Pumas clean sheet | 30% |
| Cruz Azul clean sheet | 25% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 27, 2026 | Atletico San Luis · Liga MX | 2-3 | L |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Atlas · Liga MX | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Guadalajara Chivas · Liga MX | 0-3 | L |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Leon · Liga MX | 3-1 | W |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Club Tijuana · Liga MX | 0-2 | L |
Cruz Azul
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | Club America · Club Friendlies | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Toluca · Liga MX | 3-3 | D |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Monterrey · Liga MX | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Inter Miami · Campeones Cup | 0-2 | L |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Club America · Liga MX | 4-3 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 13 | 12 | 10 |
| Cruz Azul | 7 | 16 | 10 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 25, 2026 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1-2 Cruz Azul | Liga MX |
| May 22, 2026 | Cruz Azul 0-0 U.N.A.M. - Pumas | Liga MX |
| Mar 15, 2026 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2-2 Cruz Azul | Liga MX |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Cruz Azul 2-3 U.N.A.M. - Pumas | Liga MX |
Out and doubtful
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
No absences reported.
Cruz Azul
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- K. Navas5/5
- L. Herrera5/5
- Nathan Silva5/5
- U. Antuna5/5
- V. Arteaga5/5
- Juninho4/5
- R. Lopez4/5
- R. Morales4/5
- P. Bennevendo3/5
- P. Vite3/5
- R. Duarte3/5
Cruz Azul
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Palavecino4/4
- J. Orozco4/4
- J. Paradela4/4
- W. Ditta4/4
- C. Rodriguez3/4
- E. Lira3/4
- J. Marquez3/4
- K. Mier3/4
- O. Campos3/4
- A. Garcia2/4
- G. Piovi2/4
Other matches in this competition
- Puebla 1-1 LeonOct 10, 2026
- Tigres UANL 3-2 TolucaOct 10, 2026
- Club Queretaro 2-0 Atlante FCOct 11, 2026
- FC Juarez 1-1 Club TijuanaOct 11, 2026
- Atlas 1-1 Guadalajara ChivasOct 11, 2026
- Club America 1-1 MonterreyOct 11, 2026
- Atletico San Luis 1-2 Santos LagunaOct 12, 2026
- CF Pachuca 3-3 NecaxaOct 12, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Cruz Azul prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave U.N.A.M. - Pumas a 42% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Cruz Azul 32%. U.N.A.M. - Pumas are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 3-3.
What is the most likely correct score for U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Cruz Azul?
1-1 (12.5%), followed by 1-0 (10.4%), 0-1 (9.0%), 2-1 (8.7%) and 1-2 (7.5%).
Will both teams score in U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Cruz Azul?
The probability that both U.N.A.M. - Pumas and Cruz Azul score is 53%. U.N.A.M. - Pumas have a 30% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Cruz Azul 25%.
How many goals should we expect in U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Cruz Azul?
The model expects 2.59 goals (1.39 for U.N.A.M. - Pumas, 1.20 for Cruz Azul). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 73%, over 2.5 goals 48%, over 3.5 goals 26%.
When and where is U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Cruz Azul played?
Monday, October 12, 2026 at 02:15 (UK time), Liga MX. Venue: Estadio Olímpico Universitario, Mexico City.
What form are U.N.A.M. - Pumas and Cruz Azul in?
U.N.A.M. - Pumas: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 10 conceded). Cruz Azul: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 9 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between U.N.A.M. - Pumas and Cruz Azul?
In the last 4 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for U.N.A.M. - Pumas, 1 for Cruz Azul and 2 draws. The most recent ended U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1-2 Cruz Azul (May 25, 2026).
What was the U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Cruz Azul result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3-3 Cruz Azul. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for U.N.A.M. - Pumas (42%), while a draw was rated at only 26%. The model considered this score unlikely (1.0%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (53%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (48%): missed.
How is the U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Cruz Azul prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.39 for U.N.A.M. - Pumas, 1.20 for Cruz Azul) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All U.N.A.M. - Pumas predictions
- All Cruz Azul predictions
- Liga MX predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology