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Liga MXLiga MX· Kick-off : Monday, October 12, 2026, 00:10 (UK time)

CF Pachuca vs Necaxa: 3-3 result and AI prediction review

CF PachucaCF Pachuca3 – 3NecaxaNecaxa

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 2-0

Final score: CF Pachuca 3-3 Necaxa. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for CF Pachuca (69%), while a draw was rated at only 19%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.7%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (48%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (56%): correct.

Match analysis

CF Pachuca and Necaxa met on Monday, October 12, 2026, a Liga MX fixture. Venue: Estadio Hidalgo, Pachuca de Soto. Before kick-off, our model gave CF Pachuca a 69% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Necaxa 12%. On the correct score, 2-0 comes out on top (12.3%), followed by 1-0 (11.5%) and 2-1 (9.6%).

Over their last 5 matches, CF Pachuca have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 8 and conceding 4. Necaxa have not won any of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 4 defeats), scoring 5 and conceding 12. CF Pachuca therefore arrive in far better shape than Necaxa. On average CF Pachuca score 1.60 and concede 0.80 goals per game; Necaxa score 1.00 and concede 2.40. In the table, CF Pachuca sit 12th with 12 points from 10 games, Necaxa 17th with 8 points from 10. The two teams are close in the standings.

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for CF Pachuca, 0 for Necaxa and 0 draws. The most recent ended CF Pachuca 2-1 Necaxa (Mar 4, 2026). In double chance terms, "CF Pachuca or draw" stands at 88%, "Necaxa or draw" at 31% and "no draw" at 81%.

In short : CF Pachuca are tipped by our AI model in this CF Pachuca v Necaxa (69%). In the table, CF Pachuca (12th, 12 pts) host Necaxa (17th, 8 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 2-0.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

69%
CF Pachuca (Win)
19%
Draw
12%
Necaxa (Win)

Double chance

88%
CF Pachuca or draw
31%
Necaxa or draw
81%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as CF Pachuca – Necaxa. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (12.3%); the 5 scores below add up to 51% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
CF Pachuca 2-0 Necaxa12.3%
CF Pachuca 1-0 Necaxa11.5%
CF Pachuca 2-1 Necaxa9.6%
CF Pachuca 1-1 Necaxa9.0%
CF Pachuca 3-0 Necaxa8.8%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 2.14 expected goals for CF Pachuca and 0.78 for Necaxa, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 56% and "both teams to score" at 48%. CF Pachuca keep a clean sheet in 46% of scenarios, Necaxa in 12%.

Probability
CF Pachuca expected goals2.14
Necaxa expected goals0.78
Both teams to score48%
Over 1.5 goals79%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Over 3.5 goals34%
CF Pachuca clean sheet46%
Necaxa clean sheet12%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

CF Pachuca

DateOpponentScore
Sep 27, 2026Santos Laguna · Liga MX0-1L
Sep 21, 2026Club Tijuana · Liga MX2-2D
Sep 12, 2026Atlante FC · Liga MX3-0W
Sep 5, 2026FC Juarez · Liga MX2-0W
Aug 30, 2026Guadalajara Chivas · Liga MX1-1D

Necaxa

DateOpponentScore
Sep 28, 2026Club America · Liga MX2-4L
Sep 20, 2026Atletico San Luis · Liga MX1-3L
Sep 12, 2026Puebla · Liga MX0-1L
Sep 6, 2026Tigres UANL · Liga MX1-1D
Aug 29, 2026Cruz Azul · Liga MX1-3L

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
CF Pachuca121210
Necaxa17810

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Mar 4, 2026CF Pachuca 2-1 NecaxaLiga MX
Oct 4, 2025Necaxa 0-1 CF PachucaLiga MX

Out and doubtful

CF Pachuca

No absences reported.

Necaxa

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

CF Pachuca

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • C. Moreno5/5
  • C. Rivera5/5
  • F. Venegas5/5
  • C. Sanchez4/5
  • Eduardo Bauermann4/5
  • O. Idrissi4/5
  • S. D. Barreto4/5
  • S. Rondon4/5
  • A. Bautista3/5
  • Kenedy3/5
  • S. Rodriguez3/5

Necaxa

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • J. Carranza5/5
  • A. Oliveros4/5
  • J. Ruiz4/5
  • L. Faravelli4/5
  • Naves4/5
  • P. Pedraza4/5
  • L. Jimenez3/5
  • M. Espindola3/5
  • O. Gonzalez3/5
  • R. Martinez3/5
  • A. Pena2/5

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the CF Pachuca vs Necaxa prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave CF Pachuca a 69% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Necaxa 12%. CF Pachuca are therefore favourites. Final score: 3-3.

What is the most likely correct score for CF Pachuca vs Necaxa?

2-0 (12.3%), followed by 1-0 (11.5%), 2-1 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.0%) and 3-0 (8.8%).

Will both teams score in CF Pachuca vs Necaxa?

The probability that both CF Pachuca and Necaxa score is 48%. CF Pachuca have a 46% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Necaxa 12%.

How many goals should we expect in CF Pachuca vs Necaxa?

The model expects 2.92 goals (2.14 for CF Pachuca, 0.78 for Necaxa). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 79%, over 2.5 goals 56%, over 3.5 goals 34%.

When and where is CF Pachuca vs Necaxa played?

Monday, October 12, 2026 at 00:10 (UK time), Liga MX. Venue: Estadio Hidalgo, Pachuca de Soto.

What form are CF Pachuca and Necaxa in?

CF Pachuca: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 4 conceded). Necaxa: 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 12 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between CF Pachuca and Necaxa?

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for CF Pachuca, 0 for Necaxa and 0 draws. The most recent ended CF Pachuca 2-1 Necaxa (Mar 4, 2026).

What was the CF Pachuca vs Necaxa result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: CF Pachuca 3-3 Necaxa. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for CF Pachuca (69%), while a draw was rated at only 19%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.7%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (48%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (56%): correct.

How is the CF Pachuca vs Necaxa prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.14 for CF Pachuca, 0.78 for Necaxa) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained