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Ecuadorian Liga ProEcuadorian Liga Pro· Kick-off : Saturday, October 31, 2026, 19:00 (UK time)

Emelec vs Leones del Norte: 0-2 result and AI prediction review

EmelecEmelec0 – 2Leones del NorteLeones del Norte

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-1

Final score: Emelec 0-2 Leones del Norte. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Emelec (51%), while victory for Leones del Norte was rated at only 26%. The model considered this score unlikely (3.7%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (57%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (56%): missed.

Match analysis

Emelec vs Leones del Norte was played on Saturday, October 31, 2026 (Ecuadorian Liga Pro). Venue: Estadio Banco del Pacífico Capwell, Guayaquil. Before kick-off, our model gave Emelec a 51% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Leones del Norte 26%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (11.0%), ahead of 2-1 (9.7%) and 1-0 (9.3%).

Emelec have won just one of their last 5 matches (0 draws, 4 defeats), scoring 6 and conceding 8. Leones del Norte have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 6 and conceding 9. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Emelec score 1.20 and concede 1.60 goals per game; Leones del Norte score 1.20 and concede 1.80. In the table, Emelec sit 10th with 42 points from 34 games, Leones del Norte 9th with 43 points from 34. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Emelec have averaged 1.61 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.29 for Leones del Norte.

In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Emelec, 1 for Leones del Norte and 0 draws. The most recent ended Leones del Norte 1-3 Emelec (Oct 18, 2026). In double chance terms, "Emelec or draw" stands at 74%, "Leones del Norte or draw" at 49% and "no draw" at 77%.

In short : Emelec are favourites for this Emelec v Leones del Norte, with a 51% win probability from our model. In the table, Emelec (10th, 42 pts) host Leones del Norte (9th, 43 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

51%
Emelec (Win)
23%
Draw
26%
Leones del Norte (Win)

Double chance

74%
Emelec or draw
49%
Leones del Norte or draw
77%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Emelec – Leones del Norte. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (11.0%); the 5 scores below add up to 45% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Emelec 1-1 Leones del Norte11.0%
Emelec 2-1 Leones del Norte9.7%
Emelec 1-0 Leones del Norte9.3%
Emelec 2-0 Leones del Norte8.2%
Emelec 1-2 Leones del Norte6.5%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 2.94 goals in total (1.76 for Emelec, 1.18 for Leones del Norte): over 2.5 goals has a 56% probability and both teams to score 57%. Emelec keep a clean sheet in 31% of scenarios, Leones del Norte in 17%.

Probability
Emelec expected goals1.76
Leones del Norte expected goals1.18
Both teams to score57%
Over 1.5 goals79%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Over 3.5 goals34%
Emelec clean sheet31%
Leones del Norte clean sheet17%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Emelec

DateOpponentScore
Oct 25, 2026Guayaquil City FC · Ecuadorian Liga Pro0-1L
Oct 18, 2026Leones del Norte · Ecuadorian Liga Pro3-1W
Oct 10, 2026Guayaquil City FC · Ecuadorian Liga Pro2-3L
Sep 20, 2026Libertad · Ecuadorian Liga Pro1-2L
Sep 13, 2026Macara · Ecuadorian Liga Pro0-1L

Leones del Norte

DateOpponentScore
Oct 25, 2026Libertad · Ecuadorian Liga Pro4-1W
Oct 18, 2026Emelec · Ecuadorian Liga Pro1-3L
Oct 9, 2026Libertad · Ecuadorian Liga Pro0-3L
Sep 19, 2026Guayaquil City FC · Ecuadorian Liga Pro1-1D
Sep 13, 2026Tecnico Universitario · Ecuadorian Liga Pro0-1L

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Emelec104234
Leones del Norte94334

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Oct 18, 2026Leones del Norte 1-3 EmelecEcuadorian Liga Pro
Aug 31, 2026Emelec 2-1 Leones del NorteEcuadorian Liga Pro
May 3, 2026Leones del Norte 2-0 EmelecEcuadorian Liga Pro

Out and doubtful

Emelec

No absences reported.

Leones del Norte

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

Emelec

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • Aníbal Leguizamón3/5
  • Jefferson Valverde3/5
  • Juan Ruiz Gómez3/5
  • Luis Fernando León3/5
  • Reixon Saya3/5
  • Ronie Carrillo3/5
  • A. Mina2/5
  • Angelo Mina2/5
  • E. Segura2/5
  • Estalin Segura2/5
  • Francisco Pizzini2/5

Leones del Norte

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • Emiliano Griffa5/5
  • Cristhian Solano3/5
  • Juan Anangonó3/5
  • Mauro Luque3/5
  • Nicolás Monserrat3/5
  • Tobías Coppo3/5
  • Brian Kreiman2/5
  • C. Solano2/5
  • J. Morán2/5
  • Juan Luis Anangonó León2/5
  • Leonel Nazareno2/5

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Emelec vs Leones del Norte prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Emelec a 51% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Leones del Norte 26%. Emelec are therefore favourites. Final score: 0-2.

What is the most likely correct score for Emelec vs Leones del Norte?

1-1 (11.0%), followed by 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.3%), 2-0 (8.2%) and 1-2 (6.5%).

Will both teams score in Emelec vs Leones del Norte?

The probability that both Emelec and Leones del Norte score is 57%. Emelec have a 31% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Leones del Norte 17%.

How many goals should we expect in Emelec vs Leones del Norte?

The model expects 2.94 goals (1.76 for Emelec, 1.18 for Leones del Norte). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 79%, over 2.5 goals 56%, over 3.5 goals 34%.

When and where is Emelec vs Leones del Norte played?

Saturday, October 31, 2026 at 19:00 (UK time), Ecuadorian Liga Pro. Venue: Estadio Banco del Pacífico Capwell, Guayaquil.

What form are Emelec and Leones del Norte in?

Emelec: 1 win, 0 draws and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 8 conceded). Leones del Norte: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 9 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Emelec and Leones del Norte?

In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Emelec, 1 for Leones del Norte and 0 draws. The most recent ended Leones del Norte 1-3 Emelec (Oct 18, 2026).

What was the Emelec vs Leones del Norte result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Emelec 0-2 Leones del Norte. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Emelec (51%), while victory for Leones del Norte was rated at only 26%. The model considered this score unlikely (3.7%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (57%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (56%): missed.

How is the Emelec vs Leones del Norte prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.76 for Emelec, 1.18 for Leones del Norte) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained