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Ecuadorian Liga ProEcuadorian Liga Pro· Kick-off : Sunday, November 1, 2026, 16:00 (UK time)

Universidad Catolica vs Aucas: 1-2 result and AI prediction review

Universidad CatolicaUniversidad Catolica1 – 2AucasAucas

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 0-0

Final score: Universidad Catolica 1-2 Aucas. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Universidad Catolica (38%), while victory for Aucas was rated at only 27%. The final score ranked 8th among the most likely scorelines (4.5%), behind 0-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (30%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (22%): missed.

Match analysis

Universidad Catolica vs Aucas was played on Sunday, November 1, 2026 (Ecuadorian Liga Pro). Venue: Olimpico Atahualpa, Quito. Before kick-off, our model gave Universidad Catolica a 38% chance of winning, the draw 35% and Aucas 27%. The most likely correct score is 0-0 (19.8%), ahead of 1-0 (18.0%) and 0-1 (14.1%).

Universidad Catolica have not won any of their last 5 matches (3 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 6. Aucas have not won any of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 3 defeats), scoring 3 and conceding 9. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Universidad Catolica score 0.80 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Aucas score 0.60 and concede 1.80. In the table, Universidad Catolica sit 3rd with 53 points from 34 games, Aucas 5th with 51 points from 34. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Universidad Catolica have averaged 0.79 xG (expected goals) per match, against 0.82 for Aucas.

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Universidad Catolica, 1 for Aucas and 1 draw. The most recent ended Universidad Catolica 1-1 Aucas (Sep 3, 2026). In double chance terms, "Universidad Catolica or draw" stands at 73%, "Aucas or draw" at 62% and "no draw" at 65%.

In short : Our model backs Universidad Catolica to edge Aucas (38% probability). In the table, Universidad Catolica (3rd, 53 pts) host Aucas (5th, 51 pts). The model leans towards a tight, low-scoring game.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

38%
Universidad Catolica (Win)
35%
Draw
27%
Aucas (Win)

Double chance

73%
Universidad Catolica or draw
62%
Aucas or draw
65%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Universidad Catolica – Aucas. 0-0 is the single most likely scoreline (19.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 73% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Universidad Catolica 0-0 Aucas19.8%
Universidad Catolica 1-0 Aucas18.0%
Universidad Catolica 0-1 Aucas14.1%
Universidad Catolica 1-1 Aucas12.8%
Universidad Catolica 2-0 Aucas8.2%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 1.62 goals in total (0.91 for Universidad Catolica, 0.71 for Aucas): over 2.5 goals has a 22% probability and both teams to score 30%. A tight, low-scoring game is on the cards. Universidad Catolica keep a clean sheet in 49% of scenarios, Aucas in 40%.

Probability
Universidad Catolica expected goals0.91
Aucas expected goals0.71
Both teams to score30%
Over 1.5 goals48%
Over 2.5 goals22%
Over 3.5 goals8%
Universidad Catolica clean sheet49%
Aucas clean sheet40%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Universidad Catolica

DateOpponentScore
Oct 30, 2026LDU de Quito · Copa Ecuador2-2D
Oct 23, 2026Independiente del Valle · Ecuadorian Liga Pro0-0D
Oct 18, 2026Barcelona SC · Ecuadorian Liga Pro1-1D
Oct 11, 2026Macara · Ecuadorian Liga Pro0-1L
Sep 21, 2026LDU de Quito · Ecuadorian Liga Pro1-2L

Aucas

DateOpponentScore
Oct 25, 2026Barcelona SC · Ecuadorian Liga Pro0-4L
Oct 17, 2026LDU de Quito · Ecuadorian Liga Pro1-1D
Oct 10, 2026Independiente del Valle · Ecuadorian Liga Pro1-2L
Sep 19, 2026Macara · Ecuadorian Liga Pro1-2L
Sep 12, 2026Manta FC · Ecuadorian Liga Pro0-0D

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Universidad Catolica35334
Aucas55134

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Sep 3, 2026Universidad Catolica 1-1 AucasEcuadorian Liga Pro
May 9, 2026Aucas 2-1 Universidad CatolicaEcuadorian Liga Pro

Out and doubtful

Universidad Catolica

No absences reported.

Aucas

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

Universidad Catolica

Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).

  • Azarias Londoño2/4
  • D. Clavijo2/4
  • E. Mejía2/4
  • Eddy Mejía2/4
  • Emiliano Clavijo2/4
  • G. Anangonó2/4
  • J. Cacciabue2/4
  • J. Lara2/4
  • Johan Lara2/4
  • José Fajardo2/4
  • L. Cangá2/4

Aucas

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • A. Zova4/5
  • A. Preciado3/5
  • A. Spina3/5
  • Andrés David Mena Montenegro3/5
  • Hamilton Emanuel Piedra Ordóñez3/5
  • M. Burdisso3/5
  • P. Guzmán3/5
  • R. Quiñónez3/5
  • S. Morales3/5
  • B. Carabalí2/5
  • Luis Aldair Arroyo Cabeza2/5

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Universidad Catolica vs Aucas prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Universidad Catolica a 38% chance of winning, the draw 35% and Aucas 27%. Universidad Catolica are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 1-2.

What is the most likely correct score for Universidad Catolica vs Aucas?

0-0 (19.8%), followed by 1-0 (18.0%), 0-1 (14.1%), 1-1 (12.8%) and 2-0 (8.2%).

Will both teams score in Universidad Catolica vs Aucas?

The probability that both Universidad Catolica and Aucas score is 30%. Universidad Catolica have a 49% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Aucas 40%.

How many goals should we expect in Universidad Catolica vs Aucas?

The model expects 1.62 goals (0.91 for Universidad Catolica, 0.71 for Aucas). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 48%, over 2.5 goals 22%, over 3.5 goals 8%.

When and where is Universidad Catolica vs Aucas played?

Sunday, November 1, 2026 at 16:00 (UK time), Ecuadorian Liga Pro. Venue: Olimpico Atahualpa, Quito.

What form are Universidad Catolica and Aucas in?

Universidad Catolica: 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 6 conceded). Aucas: 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 9 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Universidad Catolica and Aucas?

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Universidad Catolica, 1 for Aucas and 1 draw. The most recent ended Universidad Catolica 1-1 Aucas (Sep 3, 2026).

What was the Universidad Catolica vs Aucas result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Universidad Catolica 1-2 Aucas. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Universidad Catolica (38%), while victory for Aucas was rated at only 27%. The final score ranked 8th among the most likely scorelines (4.5%), behind 0-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (30%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (22%): missed.

How is the Universidad Catolica vs Aucas prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.91 for Universidad Catolica, 0.71 for Aucas) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

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Key terms explained